Wednesday, August 9, 2023

Box Office Discussion: "Barbie"licious

 

 

Barbenheimer got some competition, as both Meg 2 and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles exceeded expectations.

This time last year, studios and movie theater owners were staring ahead at what was shaping up to be a bleak late summer and early fall.  While things weren't nearly as dire as feared, there was a notable lack of solid hits, as only Smile was able to top the $100 million mark before Black Adam arrived in mid-October.  This year, the August lineup looks considerably more muscular with such titles as Blue Beetle, Strays, and Gran Turismo poised to be breakout hits, and September also looks packed (if sequel-stuffed).  Leading the pack was, once again, the box office's pink-clad queen, but in a sign of how much wealth was being spread, this was the first weekend in nearly five years in which four films topped $25 million (the last time was the weekend before Thanksgiving 2018).

As mentioned, leading the pack for the third week in a row is Barbie.  The smash hit comedy phenomenon brought in another $53 million to bring its total to a Dream House worthy $459.4 million.  It flew right past Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to become the summer's biggest film, and it should The Super Mario Bros. Movie before the end of August.  It is also ahead, both in total gross and weekend gross, of where Top Gun: Maverick was after 3 weeks last year.  At this point, $600 million domestic seems assured, and it could even make it to $700 million domestic.  Could it top Maverick's $718.7 million?

Winning a close battle for #2, in which less than $2 million separated it from #4, was Meg 2: The Trench, the Jason Statham-led sequel to the big giant prehistoric shark movie that was a surprise hit five years ago.  This one didn't debut nearly as well, taking in $30 million, as opposed to the first one's $45.4 million opening, but this one also had a lot more competition (the first Meg made more than twice what the third week of Mission: Impossible-Fallout did).  Meg 2 could find itself swimming above $100 million, but it seems more likely to close its jaws between $80 and $90 million.

After two weeks in second, Oppenheimer slips to third, slipping to $29.1 million.  The drama is now up to $229 million, and still seems to be on a trajectory that should take it close, if not over $300 million.  A $300 million final would put it in territory that only 6 other R-rated films have reached.

Opening in fourth is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, the 7th theatrical release (and second animated feature film) of the long-running franchise (seriously, how many fans of the original cartoon show and/or comic book in 1988 would have guessed that the Turtles would still be huge 35 years later?).  It took in $28 million, and $43.1 million since its Wednesday opening (since quite a few of those Wednesday and Thursday moviegoers would have undoubtably gone over the weekend had the film not opened until Friday, it's likely that the Wednesday opening cost it the #2 slot).  Turtles seems to be on track for $100 million, which would make it only the third TNMT theatrical release to hit that number.  Cowabunga!

With so much competition, it's not surprising that Haunted Mansion crumbled.  The Disney ride-turned-movie-for-the-second-time fell over 60% to $9.2 million, for a ten-day total of $42.3 million.  Thanks to much better weekday numbers this week than its predecessor, Mansion'23 has almost caught up to the gross of Mansion'03 after two weeks, but it still seems likely that '23 is going to be looking up at '03's $75.8 million final.

Sound of Freedom is finally beginning to come back down to earth, as the action drama took in $7.6 million for a gross of $164 million.  This looks to be heading to the $185-$195 final territory, though given the movie's rather shady ticket-buying program, I wouldn't be surprised if it manages to leg it out to $200 million.

There's been a lot of underachievers this summer, but probably the most surprising is Mission: Impossible-Dead Reckoning Part One.  The thriller continues to stumble along in Sound of Freedom's shadow, as it earned $6.6 million for a total of $151.2 million.  This will almost certainly end its run as the second-lowest grossing entry in the franchise.

Australian horror film Talk to Me held up splendidly, dropping only 40% to $6.3 million, for a ten-day total of $22.1 million.  While Hereditary is likely out of reach, it will almost certainly pass fellow A24 horror titles The Witch and Midsommar as it looks to be heading for a final gross of around $30 million.

Rounding out the Top 10 are Disney stablemates Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Elemental.  Indy took in $1.6 million for a total of $170.7 million, while Elemental brought in $1.3 million for a total of $148.4 million.  I should mention here that The Numbers lists the Indian romcom Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani in 10th, ahead of Elemental, with $1.5 million.

In a surprisingly quiet weekend for mid-August, only one new film goes wide.  The Last Voyage of the Demeter is an adaption of a chapter from a certain vampire novel by Bram Stoker, chronicling the ill-fated trip to England of the title ship, which has a mysterious passenger on board who the crew is just dying to meet.  It seems unlikely to dethrone Barbie, but it does have a good shot at 2nd.  Hoping to land in the lower reaches of the Top 10 is Jules, a sci-fi comedy about an elderly man (Ben Kingsley) who takes in an alien after its spaceship crashes in his backyard.  Could Demeter sail to #1?  Or will the pink reign of Barbie continue?  We'll find out next week.

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