Box Office Discussion: Boiling Hot "Water"

 Avatar: The Way of Water continues to bring in a deluge of business, while M3GAN started the 2023 movie year in fine style.

The new year hasn't done much to slow down Avatar: The Way of Water, as it splashed its way to the 2nd best 4th weekend ever, taking in $45.8 million.  The only movie to earn more than that in weekend #4 was the original Avatar, which made $50.3 million back in early 2010 (technically, the title of best fourth weekend ever belongs to American Sniper, but its fourth weekend overall was its first in wide release.  Both Avatars have been wide since they opened).  This brings Water's total to $517.6 million, enough to enter the all-time Top 20, and move past the live-action Beauty and the Beast and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

With grosses of nearly $50 million a weekend and a mere $200 million separating it from Top Gun: Maverick, could Avatar be on its way to being the highest grosser of 2022?  Quite possibly.  The two films had near-identical fourth weekends, but Avatar, thanks to the gold mine that is the Christmas-New Year's week box office, has a $50 million lead.  What could save Top Gun is that Avatar's weekday grosses are going to slow down considerably going forward, as kids are back in school and adults are back at work, compared to summer release Maverick.  We'll see what happens in the coming weeks.

Launching the 2023 release schedule in spectacular fashion was sci-fi horror M3GAN, which exceeded all expectations by launching at $30.4 million.  This is the best start for a film not part of an existing franchise since Nope's opening in July.  In a positive sign for word-of-mouth, Saturday grosses were roughly equal to Friday's, not a common occurrence for a genre as front-loaded as horror is.  It's highly likely that 2023's first film will also be 2023's first $100 million film.

Holding up quite nicely, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish has officially overcome a sluggish start to turn into a decent success.  The animated sequel took in $13.5 million--only 20% its New Year's weekend take--for a box office of $88.1 million.  By the end of the upcoming long weekend, it should be the 18th film of the year to pass the $100 million mark.

In fourth, A Man Called Otto is embracing a platform release, one that is very rarely used these days.  After opening right before New Year's in New York and Los Angeles to qualify for the Oscars, the dramady expanded to 637 screens this weekend, and took in a solid $4.2 million.  That bodes well for the film's wide release this weekend, when it is expected to hit over 3,000 theaters.  Could the Tom Hanks vehicle be the 19th 2022 film to hit $100 million?  It's far too early to tell, but this is exactly the type of movie that could play and play and play for weeks.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is hitting Disney+ in early February, but for now it's still a theatrical exclusive, and the thriller brought in $3.5 million in its 9th weekend for a total of $445.6 million.  Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody is one of the bigger disappointments of the holiday season, as it dropped to $2.4 million for a total of $19.7 million.

The Whale is one of the few small-scale Oscar contenders to actually be selling tickets, as the Brendan Frasier drama brought in $1.5 million for a total of $8.6 million.  It should continue to play well as Oscar season commences.

Babylon is likely going down not just as the biggest flop of the holidays, but perhaps as the biggest flop of the year.  The very expensive comedy-drama about Hollywood in the 1920s could only muster $1.4 million for a total of $13.5 million.

Rounding out the Top 10 are two long-running horror-comedies.  Violent Night surprisingly stuck around the Top 10 for one more week, even though the holidays are over.  Its up to $49.4 million, and should finish just over $50 million, a great accomplishment for the film.  Meanwhile The Menu sits at $37.6 million, and will likely finish just short of $40 million.

Avatar is likely to finish on top this week, and the expansion of Otto could put it in strong position for #2, depending on how M3GAN holds up.  Also opening wide is Plane, a new thriller starring Gerard Butler as an airplane pilot who has to rescue his passengers from evil rebels after being forced to crash-land his plane on a war-torn island.  It's a plotline--and a leading man--seemingly made for January.  Also opening wide is House Party, a remake of the 1990 hip hop classic.  Will any of the newcomers mount a serious challenge to Avatar?  We'll find out next week.