Thursday, October 27, 2022

Box Office Discussion: Up and "Adam"


 Black Adam has a summer-like opening, while Ticket's sales weren't exactly Paradise.

It's been a rough few months for Hollywood.  While the late summer/early fall wasn't nearly the desolate wasteland that some observers had predicted, no film was able to pull off huge numbers, either.  Only one film that has opened since the beginning of August has hit the $100 million mark, and even then, just barely.  The biggest opening during that stretch came just last weekend, and even then, the opening of Halloween Kills was regarded as a disappointment.

So it was with quite a bit of relief that the return of Hollywood's primary draw, the comic book movie, produced the best opening since the last live-action comic book movie.  Black Adam, starring Dwayne Johnson as the DC anti-hero, took in $67 million, easily the best numbers since Thor: Love and Thunder.  Reviews and word-of-mouth have ben all right at best, but with little competition for the next two weekends (until the arrival of the somewhat similarly titled Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on November 11), Adam could easily three-peat.  If it follows the trajectory of Thunder, it could finish around $160 million, making it by far the biggest hit of the August-October window.

In 1997, George Clooney, starring in a DC comic book movie, directly took on Julia Roberts, starring in a romantic comedy.  A quarter-century later, the two team up for a romcom opening directly against a DC comic book movie.  Times have changed, however, and even with the two of them, Ticket to Paradise opened to $16.5 million, not only below the opening of Batman and Robin (which won the weekend battle), but even below the opening of My Best Friend's Wedding (which won the war).  Still, with times having changed, there is no other movie like Paradise, in which the pair play feuding exes determined to stop their daughter's wedding, nor is there one in the immediate future.  Indeed, for adults who don't want horror or superheroes or arty Oscar films, Paradise is pretty much the only game in town until She Said in the middle of next month, and really, the only adult-aimed film that could be considered a comedy until maybe Spoiler Alert in December.  So it definitely has room to run for weeks, if moviegoers are so inclined.

Smile continues to be the surprise leggy hit of the fall, taking in another $8.5 million.  That brings its total to $84.4 million.  With Halloween (the holiday) coming up this weekend, and Smile clearly being the mainstream horror pic of choice right now, it's entirely possible the film will be over $100 million by the end of Halloween night on Monday.  If not, it will certainly cross that mark by the next weekend at the latest, even if there's a sharp November drop-off.

Speaking of sharp drop-offs, Halloween Ends had a doozy of one, dropping a mind-boggling 80% in its second weekend, to $8 million.  That brings its ten-day total to $54.2 million.  Halloween (the holiday) may keep Halloween (the film) from another significant drop this weekend, but it should fade fast in November, and is now quite unlikely to be able to double its opening weekend.  Ends could end up being one of the most front-loaded films of all time.

Even as the only kids movie in town, Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile continues to fade fast, taking in $4.3 million for a total of $28.8 million.  It seems likely that Lyle will head back to the swamp with less than $40 million.

The Woman King is approaching the end of its reign, taking in $1.9 million for a total of $62.8 million.  It should finish a bit north of $65 million.  Doing the opposite of Halloween is gory killer clown movie Terrifier 2, which continues to be a surprise word of mouth hit, as the film had another jump in weekly grosses, to $1.8 million.  That gives it a total of $5.1 million.  Even if the film collapses in November, it should have one more solid weekend this weekend, meaning it could finish its run just under $10 million, a major success for the film.

Finishing under $1 million was thriller Don't Worry Darling, crime comedy Amsterdam, and gross-out art-house comedy Triangle of Sadness, the latter making its Top 10 debut after expanding.  Grosses are respectively $44.3 million, $13.9 million, and $1.4 million.

Halloween weekend is usually light on major releases, as Hollywood both acknowledges competition from parties on Friday and Saturday night, and because the first weekend of November usually kicks off the holiday movie season, meaning studios don't want to throw anything major out the weekend before (this year, that won't be until the second weekend, with the arrival of the aforementioned Black Panther: Wakanda Forever).  This week's highlights is one newcomer and one expansion.  The newcomer is Prey for the Devil, a horror flick about a nun (Jacqueline Byers, who mostly has TV credits prior to this), who tries to exorcise a demon from a young girl--a demon she is intimately familiar with.  This could scare up some solid business this weekend (especially since it's the only horror film out with a PG-13 rating) before a quick November fade.  The expansion is Till, a drama about the lynching of Emmett Till, a 14-year-old Black boy who was murdered in Mississippi in 1955 for the "crime" of whistling at a white woman, and how his grieving mother (Danielle Deadwyler) is determined to ensure that White America doesn't ignore his death like it ignored thousands of others.  Deadwyler and the film itself are major Oscar contenders, which means that it could have strong legs, even if the opening isn't great.  While Devil has a shot at an upset, it's likely that Black Adam will take the weekend, though we'll find out for sure next week.

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