Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Box Office Discussion: "Death" of the (Super Bowl) Party


 On a slow Super Bowl weekend, Death on the Nile (barely) meets expectations, while Marry Me and Blacklight underperform.

In many ways, Super Bowl weekend was a rather unique weekend for new releases.  All three of the new wide releases were headlined by actors over 50.  Two of the three were original screenplays, and while the third is both a sequel and a remake, it's not from an IP that Hollywood is eager to produce numerous clones of.  Unfortunately, this may be the last weekend like this for a good long while, because none of the films did particularly well.

Leading the charge was Death on the Nile, Kenneth Branagh's follow-up to his surprise smash Murder on the Orient Express from 2017.  Once again, Branagh plays Agatha Christie's detective Herclue Poirot, investigating yet another murder on a mode of transportation that no one can get off of among a group of rich travelers, played by an assortment of familiar faces.  Death came in at the lower end of expectations, opening to $12.9 million, or less than half of what Murder opened to in November 2017.  While that was good enough for #1, it's not exactly a number that inspires much confidence.  Murder ended up having strong legs, as did another all-star whodunit, Knives Out, in 2019.  If Death can develop similar legs, it might be able to do all right for itself, though it will likely fall well short of $100 million.

Last week's top film, Jackass Forever, was predictably front-loaded, as it fell 65% in weekend #2 to $8.1 million, for a ten-day total of $37.5 million.  This puts it well behind the second weekend of the original Jackass, from 2002, in both weekend and overall gross, which probably means this will end up as the lowest grosser of the franchise (though, since I have yet to see it, I am not sure how gross it is compared to its predecessors.  Thank you folks, I'll be here all week).  Still, with a budget of only $10 million, this one should still be nicely profitable.  Expect Paramount and MTV to try to talk Johnny Knoxville into recruiting a new, 20-something crew for Jackass: The Next Generation, possibly streaming soon on Paramount Plus.

Opening disappointingly in third is Marry Me, the new Jennifer Lopez/Owen Wilson romcom.  Despite better-than-expected reviews, Valentine's weekend audiences surprisingly did not say "I do" to the film, as it opened to only $8 million (the fact it also hit Peacock to stream day and date probably didn't help).  Like Death on the Nile, this one has a decent shot at having some legs, but for those hoping that the success of Hustlers (and the breathless tabloid coverage of Bennifer 2.0) meant J.Lo was back will be crestfallen.

Spider-Man: No Way Home continues to perform well, especially for a film that has been out for 9 weeks now, as it came in fourth with another $7.5 million.  Spidey ended the weekend with $759.4 million, placing it just inches below Avatar's final gross.  By now, he has blown past Avatar to #3 of all time.

Opening in fifth is Blacklight, the latest Liam Neeson actioner.  The thriller couldn't attract much of an audience, opening to a mere $3.5 million.  That's actually less than his Honest Thief, which opened in October 2020 when many theaters were still closed and box office was a fragment of what it is now, took in its first weekend.  We'll see if his late April thriller Memory can improve on this.

In sixth, Sing 2 continues to do decent business as the only family movie in wide release right now, taking in $3.1 million for a total of $143.5 million.  Scream also held up decently, with another $3 million for a total of $73.3 million.  Moonfall fell sharply in its second weekend, as the sci-fi thriller lost 70% of its already disappointing opening weekend audience.  It took in $3 million for a ten-day total of $15.3 million.  

In ninth is Licorice Pizza, this weekend's highest-grossing Oscar nominee, other than Spider-Man, which took advantage of its Best Picture nomination and theater expansion to take in $1 million.  Its gross is $14 million.  Rounding out the Top Ten is the IMAX concert documentary The Beatles: Get Back-The Rooftop Concert, an exerpt from the recent Disney+ documentary, that presents the group's legendary final performance in full.  In three weeks in IMAX theaters, it has grossed $0.9 million.

Outside the Top Ten, films that saw post-Oscar nomination surges included Belfast, The Worst Person in the World, Drive My Car, Dune, and King Richard.

Three more new films open wide this weekend.  Likely leading the way, and hoping to post the best opening since Spider-Man, is Uncharted, the action-adventure adaption of the popular video game series starring Spidey himself, Tom Holland, as well as Mark Wahlberg as a pair of adventures seeking the lost fortune of Ferdinand Magellan.  Antonio Banderas co-stars as a rival treasure hunter.  Don't expect great reviews for this, but star power and name recognition should make any opening less than $30 million be seen as a disappointment.  Also going wide is Dog, in which Channing Tatum, also making his directorial debut, plays an Army Ranger tasked with taking a service dog to the funeral of a comrade.  The other new film is The Cursed, a period horror film in which a small French town is plagued by what might be a supernatural presence.  Will Uncharted chart a course for #1, or could Dog or The Cursed pull an upset?  We'll find out next week.

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