Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Box Office Discussion: Lord of the "Rings"


 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings smashes past even the most optimistic expectations over Labor Day.

Even though its a three-day weekend, Labor Day has always been a backwater on Hollywood's calendar, probably because it occurs in the middle of a dead period between the last summer blockbusters, which usually open in mid-August, and the first major fall films, which usually arrive in mid-to-late September.  It's telling that the reigning record holder for the weekend was the 2007 remake of Halloween, whose $30.6 four-day opening was quite good for an R-rated, very violent, poorly received, starless horror movie opening two months before the titular holiday, but hardly a total that one would expect to largely go unchallenged for nearly a decade and a half.

But with the release calendar still in flux and with expensive blockbusters still gathering dust on studio shelves, Hollywood can't afford to ignore any major weekend, and so Disney and Marvel sent out Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, to rather muted expectations.

The results will almost certainly lead to Hollywood re-evaluating Labor Day from here on out, as Shang-Chi merely delivered the second-best three-day weekend of the pandemic, opening to $75.4 million.  The film made nearly $20 million more on Labor Day (i.e. 2/3rds of what previous record holder Halloween made over the entire four days) for a whopping $94.7 million start. Stablemate Black Widow still has the best three-day start of the year, but it didn't come close to matching that first Monday total, giving Shang-Chi the best four-day start since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.  It will almost certainly be well over $100 million by the end of this coming weekend, and in fact will likely be the fourth-highest grossing film of 2021 by then.

While Shang-Chi dominated, accounting for nearly 70% of ticket sales, a few other movies were able to pull down decent business.  Last week's champ, Candyman, held decently for a horror movie, scaring up $10.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $12.5 million through Monday.  It's 11-day total stands at $41 million, and looks to be heading north of $60 million at least.

In third, Free Guy may not be pulling in the flashy numbers that Shang-Chi is racking up, but it is easily the most leggy film to come along in a while, at least since A Quiet Place Part II.  In its fourth weekend, the action comedy took in $8.9 million through Sunday and $11.2 million through Monday, for a total of $94.4 million.  It should be over $100 million by the end of next weekend.

In fourth, Jungle Cruise continues to chug along, taking in $4 million through Sunday and $5.1 million through Monday.  Its total is $106.8 million.  At this point, it looks destined to finish behind Free Guy, which is only a little more than $12 million back and is currently making more than double what Cruise is doing each weekend.

Paw Patrol, which unlike the top four is available for free streaming at-home (Jungle Cruise is available via premium steaming) is still turning in a decent box office run, making $4 million through Sunday and $5.3 million through Monday (totals which put it behind Jungle Cruse though Sunday but ahead through Monday).  It stands at a respectable $31.7 million.

Don't Breathe 2, Respect, and The Suicide Squad were the only other titles to finish above $1 million for the long weekend, as their totals are now $28.6 million, $22.3 million, and $54.7 million, respectively.  Rounding out the Top Ten, Black Widow manages to leap back in, probably thanks to Shang-Chi, and flop The Protégé manages to hold on for one more week.  Those total grosses are $182.7 million and $7 million, respectively.

Shang-Chi will almost certainly win its second weekend.  Playing for second is the horror film Malignant, starring Annabelle Wallis as a young woman who discovers her grisly nightmares of gruesome murders is in fact actual visions of actual murders.  On the surface, this seems like a standard issue September horror movie, but it is directed by James Wan, who is responsible for Saw, Insidious, and The Conjuring (along with Furious 7 and Aquaman), so this one could be a cut above the usual seasonal schlock.  It's the only movie going wide, though other titles, such as the crime comedy Queenpins, the documentary Show Me the Father, and the gambling drama The Card Counter might be playing in enough theaters to make the bottom rungs of the Top Ten.  Will Shang-Chi be able to avoid a big post-holiday drop?  Will Malignant be able to scare up some solid business this weekend?  We'll find out next week.

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