Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Box Office Discussion: Turn Everything Off"ward"

On what turned out to be the last weekend for moviegoing in the foreseeable future, most people (wisely) opted to stay home



During the course of last week, most entertainment options outside the home announced immediate shutdowns.  One of the most prominent holdouts was movie theaters, who responded by limiting ticket sales per auditorium and encouraging their patrons to spread out and not sit too close to each other.  While some people showed up, most people took seriously the government's command that everyone should stay home and get caught up on Netflix, as ticket sales slumped to levels not seen since very early days of this century.

The most obvious sign that movies were not exactly a top priority anymore was the performance of Onward.  The animated fantasy was, under normal circumstances, likely to be one of the bigger disappointments in Pixar's history.  But those normal circumstances wouldn't have produced a drop of over 70% from its opening weekend, a decline that would be steep for poorly-received horror movies.  Onward came in probably anywhere from $10 to $20 million under what it likely would have otherwise gross, making $10.6 million for a ten-day gross of $60.4 million.  It has pretty much cemented its position as not only the lowest-grossing Pixar movie, but the only one not to top $100 million, though at least the latter stat should come with an asterisk.

Opening in second is Bloodshot, the sci-fi thriller starring Vin Diesel as he continues to see a successful vehicle without the words "Fast" and/or "Furious" in the title.  Despite lousy reviews and so-so word of mouth, this one might have succeeded, as its $9.2 million opening was about in line with pre-virus expectations.  That suggests that it might have been a moderate hit otherwise.

In third is another movie that might have broken out, and unlike Bloodshot, would likely have had solid legs.  Christian movie I Still Believe opened to $9.1 million.  Thematically similar to directors Joe and Andrew Erwin's previous film, I Can Only Imagine, which became an unexpected hit two years ago, I Still Believe might have very well put up similar numbers.  Like Onward, expect this to have a very healthy post-theatrical life.

The Invisible Man had easily the best hold of any movie in the Top 10, taking in $5.9 million for a total of $64.3 million.  It's hard to imagine this earning more than a few million extra dollars this weekend under normal circumstances.  While I still think it would have fallen short of $100 million, it would have likely topped $80 million at the very least.  Still, even finishing a good $15 million short, Invisible Man will be very profitable.

In fifth is Invisible's Universal/Blumhouse stablemate The Hunt, which was delayed for six months from last fall after getting caught up in controversy as conservatives (including the president) objected to a movie where Trump supporters were hunted for sport.  With other things taking priority over the plotline of a movie, this one pretty much slipped into theaters unnoticed--even by moviegoers, as it opened to $5.3 million.

Rounding out the top ten was Sonic the Hedgehog ($2.5 million/$145.8 million), The Way Back ($2.4 million/$13.4 million), The Call of the Wild ($2.2 million/$62.1 million), Emma ($1.3 million/$9.9 million), and Bad Boys For Life ($1.1 million/$204.3 million.  Bad Boys could very well be the #1 movie of 2020 for a long, long, long time.

Over the past few days, nearly every major theater chain has shut down, and the vast majority of theaters around the country have gone dark for the time being.  It is uncertain whether we'll even get box office totals for this weekend, as whatever numbers we do get will make last weekend look like Christmas week.  Because of that, these write-ups will also be going on hiatus.  If we do get numbers for this coming weekend, I'll do a quick write-up, but nothing lengthy.  We'll be back to full length once theaters are back up and running.

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