Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Box Office Discussion: Super "Sonic"

Sonic the Hedgehog barely holds on, as audiences answered The Call of the Wild in bigger numbers than anticipated.

In a much-closer race for the top than anticipated, Sonic the Hedgehog raced to a narrow box office win this weekend.  The video game adaption brought in $26.2 million, for a ten-day total of $106.5 million.  Sonic becomes the second film released in 2020 to top the century mark, though a steeper-than-expected decline probably means that the year's current #1 movie, Bad Boys For Life, is likely to stay out of reach.

Opening stronger than expected in second place is The Call of the Wild, the first film from the newly renamed 20th Century Studios. What is at least the 8th filmed version of Jack London's 1903 novel was expected to debut in the teens, but instead powered to a $24.8 million opening.

First the good news about this opening: with decent legs (and this is the type of movie that could play for weeks), this could make over $100 million domestic.  That would give star Harrison Ford at least one film hitting the century mark in an unprecedented six straight decades.  The success of this film and Sonic, along with the continuing run of Jumanji: The Next Level and even the surprisingly lengthy run of Dolittle suggests that Hollywood probably should have scheduled more family-friendly films for the first two months of the year.  This all should be good news for Onward, which arrives in a week and a half.

Now the bad news: for whatever reason, this film cost $135,000,000.  Even with Ford's presumably large paycheck and the CGI dog, there is no reason this film should have cost anywhere near this much.  Even half that cost would be way too expensive.  Like Dolittle, this could have the grosses to be a solid hit, if it wasn't for the insane price tag.

Speaking of bad news, Birds of Prey (and Something Something Harley Quinn) sees its grosses fall under $10 million, to $6.8 million, for a total of $72.3 million.  It's never a good sign when a title character's big budget movie is overshadowed by the title character's animated series on a relatively minor streaming service.  On the bright side, DC Universe subscriptions are probably going up, and since all of this goes to Warner Bros. anyway, it all comes out in the wash.

There's no bad news for Bad Boys for Life, which takes in another $5.9 million, raising its total to $191.2 million.  It will eventually relinquish the top spot for 2020, most likely to Onward, but if that and Mulan end up underperforming, it could stay #1 for the year until Black Widow overtakes it sometime in May.

Back in 2016, the low-budgeted horror flick The Boy turned out to be surprisingly profitable, opening to nearly $11 million and finishing just over $35 million.  Like most low-budget horror hits, a sequel was greenlighted, but unlike most quickie horror sequels, which usually hit theaters no more than two years after the original, Brahms: The Boy II took over four.  Understandably, many moviegoers only have vague memories of the film, and the new one opened to only about half of the first film's opening weekend, at $5.8 million.  Undoubtedly, the flood of horror that has hit theaters since the beginning of the year didn't help much.  The Boy II will probably make it to $10 million, but don't expect much more than that.

Speaking of low-budgeted horror, Fantasy Island proved to be more of a nightmare in its second weekend, taking in only $4.3 million for a ten-day total of $20.3 million.  With awards season over, both 1917 and Parasite start to head toward the multiplex exits, with 1917 earning $4.2 million to bring its total to $151.8 million, and Parasite taking in $3 million for a total of $48.8 million.

Also heading for the exit is the last holiday season wide release in the Top 10, Jumanji: The Next Level.  In its 11th weekend, it brought in $2.9 million for a gross of $310.9 million.  Rounding out the Top 10 is romantic drama The Photograph, which with Valentine's Day long over, lost most of its audience, tumbling to $2.8 million for a ten-day gross of $17.6 million.  It was just barely able to hold off Impractical Jokers: The Movie, which had a surprisingly strong start in 11th, despite playing on fewer than 400 screens.  Maybe this one should have been released a bit wider.

This week only brings in one new movie, which happens to be yet another low-budgeted horror movie.  But unlike the likes of Fantasy Island and The Boy II (and The Grudge and The Turning and and Underwater and Gretel and Hansel), The Invisible Man might just attract some solid business.  For starters, unlike Island, which Blumhouse dumped in theaters without critics' screenings, the studio has made sure to get the critics out to see this film, which as of this writing is boasting a 91% approval rate at Rotten Tomatoes.  For another, it has a strong star in Elisabeth Moss, playing a woman who, after the supposed suicide of her abusive ex, a brilliant scientist, finds herself being stalked by...something.  With Sonic and Call of the Wild likely to gross in the teens this weekend, this Man should be visible at the top of the box office.

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