Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Box Office Discussion: The Edge of "1917"

1917 opens big, while three other newcomers do only average business.

In the wake of its upset wins for Best Drama and Best Director at the Golden Globes, 1917, Sam Mendes's World War I drama about two solders (the virtual unknown Dean-Charles Chapman and George MacKay) who have to risk life and limb to deliver a message calling off an impending invasion, had a very successful expansion, arriving in theaters nationwide to the tune of $37 million.  The film had been playing in limited release since Christmas Day to qualify for the Oscars, and its total now stands at $39.7 million.  The film received ten Academy Award nominations on Monday morning, including for Best Picture and Best Director for Mendes, which should fuel business for a while.  It seems highly likely to become the fourth (or fifth, depending on Little Women's trajectory) of this year's Best Picture nominees to find its way north of $100 million.

Thanks to the rise of the movie about an Earth war, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker fell to second after three weeks on top.  For the third week in a row, the film lost more than half its business from the previous weekend, as it made $15.2 million.  Its total now stands at $478.3 million.  The continued dramatic erosion from week-to-week not only assures that Skywalker will finish below $600 million and will likely finish below The Lion King (which it looked like it had a good shot at catching just last weekend), but it might even have trouble passing the $532.2 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story earned three years ago.  While any film that grosses over $500 million domestic (Skywalker will be the 15th film in history to achieve that feat) can hardly be called a flop, given that this is a Star Wars film, this gross can only be seen as a disappointment.  That said, this is also the third straight Star Wars movie to underperform, so the fact that there probably won't be another one for at least three years is probably a wise move by Disney.

Falling to third after three weeks in second is Jumanji: The Next Level.  The action comedy continues to do decent business, though it won't come close to equaling how Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle did two years ago.  Level took in $14 million, for a total of $257.1 million.  It will probably get to $300 million, but most likely not much farther than that.  It does seem likely to pass Skywalker's weekly gross by next weekend, though.

Opening in #4 is the comedy Like a Boss, starring Tiffany Haddish and Rose Byrne as friends who seek revenge after Salma Hayek hijacks their makeup company.  A film opening in early January without an Oscar-qualifying run first is never a sign of quality, and the awful reviews bear that out.  So, a $10 million opening, while not great, is better than it could have been.  I wouldn't expect this one to stick around long, but with nearly every other comedy arriving over the next few weeks being largely action-oriented, this one might have better-than-expected legs, especially if word-of-mouth can overcome the poor reviews.

Like 1917, Just Mercy opened in limited release on Christmas Day to qualify for Oscars.  Unlike 1917, the gambit did not pay off, as Mercy was shut out completely Monday morning.  The lack of buzz for the legal drama, which stars Michael B. Jordan as a lawyer fighting to get an innocent man (Jamie Foxx) off of death row, likely contributed to its $9.7 million wide opening, which brings its overall total to $10.2 million.  That said, Just Mercy is the type of film that in the past has exhibited strong legs, and with the rest of January--and February--mostly made up of action and horror, there might be room for Just Mercy to pull off a decent run.

Speaking of strong legs, Little Women continues to exhibit a pair, as the period drama brought in $7.8 million for a total of $74.2 million.  In the wake of the film's 6 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, a final total north of $100 million seems all but assured.

The week's lowest wide opening is the long-shelved sci-fi horror flick Underwater, which got surprisingly good reviews, especially given its genre, its release date, and how long ago it was made.  That didn't really help it make much money, though, as it swam to shore with $7 million.  As with most films of this genre, expect it to make a quick trip out of mulitplexes in the coming weeks.

Coming in 8th and 9th are two films that have been playing since Thanksgiving, which each picked up a single Oscar nomination on Monday.  Best Original Song nominee Frozen II earned $5.9 million for a total of $459.5 million, and Best Original Screenplay nominee Knives Out took in $5.6 million for a total of $139.5 million.  Rounding out the top 10 is Spies in Disguise, which brought in $5.2 million for a disappointing $54.7 million and will leave the Top 10 just as stars Will Smith and Tom Holland have new movies opening.

Smith's is Bad Boys for Life, the latest 25th anniversary commemorative sequel.  The original opened in April 1995, when Will Smith and Martin Lawrence were still sitcom stars.  These days, both their careers could use a tune-up.  Thanks to Aladdin, Smith's career is still in better shape, but the back-to-back flops of Gemini Man and Spies in Disguise have to hurt, as do the underwhelming grosses of Collateral Beauty, Concussion, After Earth...  At least Smith is still headlining movies.  Lawrence actually tried to become a sitcom star again (with an unsold pilot and the short lived legal comedy Partners), and hasn't headlined a film since Big Mommas: Like Father Like Son in 2011.  So both really need this to succeed.  Meanwhile, for those hoping for an Iron Man/Spider-Man reunion, Holland is only providing a voice for Dolittle, a more straightforward adaption of Hugh Lofting's stories than the Eddie Murphy comedies from 20 years ago.  Robert Downey, Jr. plays Dr. Dolittle, who discovers that he can talk to the animals.  Newly minted Oscar nominee Antonio Banderas is also in this, for some reason.  Even though, with Martin Luther King Day on Monday, this is a three-day weekend, mid-January is not the time to be releasing a movie studios have high hopes for, particularly if they're big, expensive projects like these two are.  I'd expect them to finish 1 and 2 for the weekend, though.

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