Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Box Office Discussion: A "Frozen" December

The box office, as usual, tumbled the weekend after Thanksgiving weekend, thought the top movies stayed strong.  Meanwhile, the weekend's one expansion did only so-so business, while the week's one newcomer proved to be an unmitigated disaster.

Leading the weekend for the third (and likely final) time was Frozen II, Disney's animated blockbuster that seems on a path to becoming Walt Disney Animation Studios's top grosser of all time.  Even though it fell nearly 60% from its Thanksgiving weekend numbers, it still brought in another $35.2 million, enough to bring its gross to a hefty $338.1 million.  Disney Animation's top grosser is still, surprisingly enough, The Lion King '94, which thanks to successful re-releases, currently has a final gross of $422.8 million (the first Frozen holds the Disney Animation record for single-release gross, at $400.7 million).  Even with the intense competition that is about to hit, it seems extremely likely that Frozen has at least $85 million left in the tank, and should have topped Lion '94 by New Year's.  However, thanks to significantly weaker weekday grosses this last week, the film has fallen well behind where Finding Dory was at the end of its third weekend.

Word of mouth sustained Knives Out, which fell a not-bad-for-this-weekend 47% for a second weekend gross of $14.2 million.  The film's twelve-day total stands at $63.6 million, and it looks like a good bet to pass $100 million before the end of the year.

Likely passing $100 million before Christmas is Ford v Ferrari, which roared into third with $6.7 million, driving its total to $91.2 million.  We'll see if Christian Bale's Golden Globe and SAG nominations will help rev up the film's fortunes.

In 4th, Queen and Slim also held up well, taking in $6.6 million for a 12-day total of $27 million.  This has a decent shot of making it to $50 million, which would be a solid win for the relatively cheap drama.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is doing OK business, but is not living up to expectations.  It grossed $5.2 million for a not-so-beautiful total of $43.1 million.  A final gross of $60 million seems likely, as it, more than the four films above it, is at serious risk of losing screens in the next few weeks.

After two weeks in limited release, the drama Dark Waters went wide to OK results, taking in $4 million for a total of $5.2 million.  For whatever reason, this is getting largely ignored by end-of-year awards, despite an Oscar-friendly cast (Mark Ruffalo, Anne Hathaway, Tim Robbins), an Oscar-friendly director (Todd Haynes, working well outside his usual wheelhouse) , and an Oscar-friendly storyline (a true story about a lawyer who works to expose chemical manufacturer DuPont's negligence that has lead to numerous deaths).  Waters will likely be lucky to break $20 million by the end of its run.

Rounding out the Top 10, 21 Bridges took in $2.9 million for a gross of $23.9 million, Playing With Fire earned $2 million to bring its total to $42 million, Midway brought in $1.9 million, bringing its earnings to $53.4 million, and Last Christmas opened up another $1 million for $33.5 million worth of wrappings.

Meanwhile, opening down at 14th, behind Joker, Harriet, and Parasite, all of which have been out for weeks and all of which are playing in far fewer theaters, is animated action comedy Playmobil.  In a desperate bid to get people into theaters, the studio persuaded theaters to only charge $5 for all tickets to the film.  That probably only had the effect of reducing what were already going to be very tiny grosses.  As it stands, Playmobil only took in $0.7 million.  How bad is that?  Only three other films that debuted on over 2,000 screens made less money their opening weekends.  When the only thing you can boast is that you managed to beat The Oogieloves, that's not a promising start.  Expect Playmobil to finish as the lowest-grossing wide-release film of 2018.

This weekend brings in three new wide releases.  The biggest should be Jumanji: The Next Level.  Two years ago, when Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle opened, it looked like it was going to be swamped by Star Wars: The Last Jedi.  However, Star Wars had burned itself out by the end of the year, and Jumanji proceeded to rule January.  This year, the sequel gets a week's jump on Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.  Also getting a jump on the holiday season's 800-pound light saber is Richard Jewell, a Clint Eastwood-directed chronicle of the aftermath of the Atlanta Olympic bombing, when the titular security guard went from being a hero to the prime suspect, even though he was innocent, and Black Christmas, the second remake of directer Bob Clark's first Christmas story, which was one of the first slasher films.  Unlike the largely forgotten 2006 remake, this one is both rated PG-13 and seemingly alters the plot so that the killer isn't an escaped lunatic but frat boys who are part of a cult.  We'll see if Jumanji can bring in some big bucks before Star Wars arrives to bring in bigger bucks this weekend.

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