Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Box Office Discussion: "Joker", Smoker, Midnight Toker

Joker has one of the best holds for a comic book movie in recent history, while a creepy, kooky retread's opening is not the least bit ooky.



Joker easily won its second weekend, taking in $55.9 million for a ten-day total of $193.6 million.  It dropped a mere 42% from its opening weekend gross.  Outside of the hold for Aquaman, whose second weekend was the always-incredibly lucrative weekend between Christmas and New Year's, this is the best second weekend hold for a comic book-inspired movie since Big Hero 6 nearly 5 years ago. 

This kind of hold suggest that, despite the mixed critical reception, word of mouth is strong.  A final gross north of $300 million now seems very likely, which would likely be enough to clinch a spot in the overall Top 10 of 2019.

Opening very well in second is The Addams Family, the first theatrical release involving the mysterious and spooky family since 1993's live-action Addams Family Values.  The newly animated clan's $30.3 million debut is a higher weekend gross than either of the 90s movies had (though, of course, ticket prices in 1991/1993 were considerably lower than they are today).  Gomez et al. will run into some competition this weekend, but with two more weekends before Halloween and no further animated competition until November, the Family is likely to top out above $100 million.

Opening rather inappropriately in third is Gemini Man, the second film of 2019 starring both Will Smith and a CGI version of Will Smith.  Critics were not particularly kind to the action film, both criticizing the predictable story, the unconvincing effect work, and director Ang Lee's decision to shoot the film in 120 frames per second, which detractors point out makes the film look more like a soap opera than a movie, criticism that plagued Lee's last movie, the even-bigger flop Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk.  Gemini, with its $20.6 million opening, has already easily outgrossed Billy Lynn, but unless word of mouth lifts this film, it's highly likely that Gemini's final total could end up being only slightly higher than Aladdin's second weekend.

With The Addams Family sucking up the family audiences, animation disappointment Abominable could only muster up $6.1 million for its third weekend, to bring its total to $47.9 million.  In fifth, Downton Abbey brought in another $4.9 million, for a gross of $82.7 million.  Hustlers is on the verge of passing the century mark, after a $3.9 million weekend brought its total to $98.1 million.

Judy added more theaters, which helped it maintain a decent hold, as it took in $3.2 million for a gross so far of $14.9 million.  It: Chapter Two is looking like it won't get within $100 million of the first film, as it has now grossed $207.1 million after a $3.1 million weekend.

Getting dumped in 9th is Jexi, the barely promoted comedy about a boy and his phone's overly possessive personal assistant, which could only manage $3.1 million.  That's the fourth-worse opening this year of any film debuting on more than 2,000 screens.  With most theaters likely cutting showtimes this weekend, and then dumping the film entirely next weekend, Jexi might find it difficult to even double that opening gross.

Ad Astra edges out Rambo: Last Blood for the final spot in the Top 10, as the sci-fi adventure brought in $1.9 million, bringing its total to $47 million.

Opening with the top per-screen of the year so far is South Korean Palme d'Or winner Parasite, which took in $0.4 million on just three screens.  Expect the film, which is expected to be a major Oscar player, to rack up some impressive grosses in the weeks and months ahead.

This weekend brings two new season-appropriate movies, both several-years-later sequels.  Disney releases its first film since The Lion King in July with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, a sequel to the 2014 hit that brings back Angelina Jolie as the wicked (or is she?) fairy.  The original Maleficent grossed $241.4 million and more or less kicked off Disney's live-action remake craze, but the film has largely faded from the collective memory over the past few years.  I'm definitely getting The Huntsman's Winter War vibes from this one.  That said, even if it doesn't come close to topping the original's $69.4 million, it seems likely to have enough juice to debut at #1.  Also opening is Zombieland: Double Tap, a ten-years-later sequel to the horror-comedy (emphasis on comedy) that brings back the entire original cast of the first one, including Emma Stone, whose career is considerably hotter than it was in 2009, and Bill Murray, as well as throwing in several more cameos and appearances.  The first Zombieland opened to $24.7 million, which is likely the neighborhood this one will arrive in.  Will Maleficent take the top spot?  Will Zombieland surprise?  Or could Joker play the biggest joke of all and three-peat?  We'll find out next weekend

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