Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Box Office Discussion: The "Joker" is Wild

Setting a new October record and proving once again that people will flock to R-rated comic book movies, Joker opened at #1 with $96.2 million.  The controversial take on the early days of the Clown Prince of Crime has an opening higher than Justice League two years ago, and in fact had a better first weekend than Spider-Man: Far From Home had in July (though that movie opened on Tuesday).  While reviewers weren't nearly as enamored as the jury at the Venice Film Festival (which awarded the film its top prize last month), it still got majority good reviews, and Joaquin Phoenix still remains a front-runner for a Best Actor nomination at the Oscars.


The three other recent major R-rated comic book movies (Deadpool, Logan, and Deadpool 2) all took in nearly 40% of their final grosses that opening weekend, which suggests a final gross for Joker of between $240 million and $275 million.  That seems like enough to put in 2019's Top 10 grossers, a traditional perch for most live-action Batman films of the last 30 years.

Coming in a distant second is the animated Abominable, which held up decently, taking in $11.9 million for a ten-day total of $37.8 million.  It's running a few million behind where Smallfoot was at this point last year, which makes it likely that this will finish somewhere between $70 and $75 million.  Somewhat surprisingly, given that its a co-production with a Chinese animation studio, it has not been caught up in this week's controversy surrounding the NBA's kowtowing to the Chinese government, so it is unlikely to see its numbers significantly affected, if affected at all.

Downton Abbey continued its strong run by coming in third with $8 million, bringing its total to $73.6 million.  While the film still has a shot at $100 million, it is likely to finish somewhat shy of that number.  That said, this should be profitable enough that a Downton Abbey 2 in a few years should be a real possibility.

Hustlers will hit $100 million, though its rise is a bit slower than expected, especially given its enthusiastic reviews and strong opening.  The film currently stands at $91.4 million after a $6.4 million weekend.

It: Chapter Two slipped past the  $200 million mark, making $5.3 million for a total of $202.6 million.  It seems likely to make another $10-20 million.

Judy had a decent expansion, as the biopic of The Wizard of Oz star in her final days took in $4.6 million for a ten-day total of $9.1 million.  With Renee Zellweger a likely Oscar nominee for her performance as Ms. Garland, this might have stuck around for months a few years ago.  Now, it's likely to be on DVD by the time nominations are announced.

Coming in 7th and 8th are two late-September disappointments, Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood.  Astra took in $4.2 million for a total of $43.3 million, while Rambo earned $3.6 million for a total of $39.9 million.  Both will be looking for overseas earnings to get them to profitability.

In a sign of how weak the bottom slots of the Top 10 are, the Indian action movie War came in 9th, despite playing in only 305 theaters.  It's opening weekend total is $1.6 million.  In tenth is the final summer movie left standing, Good Boys, which couldn't even garner a million over the weekend.  It took in $0.9 million for $82 million.  It barely finished ahead of the Chinese drama My People My Country, which opened in 67 theaters and sounds very much like propaganda about the awesomeness of the Chinese government, which probably means there's a decent chance that a good chunk of the opening weekend tickets were purchased by various NBA executives.

This weekend sees three wide releases, two of which will challenge Joker for the top spot.  The Addams Family, the most successful component of The New Yorker Magazine Cinematic Universe, returns to theaters, boasting animation that resembles Charles Addams's original drawings rather than the 90s movies or the 60s TV show.  Oscar Isaac and Charlize Theron voice Gomez and Morticia, leading an all-star cast.  Gemini Man, directed by Ang Lee, no stranger himself to the The New Yorker Magazine Cinematic Universe (Brokeback Mountain started life as a story in the magazine), is a sci-fi actioner starring Will Smith as an aging government assassin who is targeted by a younger recruit who turns out to be his own clone.  Smith also plays the clone, thanks to the de-aging technology that's also being employed in Martin Scorsese's The Irishman.  Finally, Jexi is a comedy starring Adam DeVine as a schlub whose new phone's virtual assistant becomes unhealthily obsessed with him.  While this blackly comic variant of Her is unlikely to garner high grosses, both Addams and Gemini should open upwards of $30 million.  That probably won't be enough to take over #1, unless one greatly exceeds expectations while the comic book movie has a steeper fall than expected.  We'll find out next weekend.

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