Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Box Office Discussion: Axis of "Evil"

In a near-photo finish to a relatively quiet weekend at the box office, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was able to hold off Joker to win the pre-Halloween weekend. 




Maleficent was able to conjure up $19.4 million, to bring the film's 10-day total to $66.3 million.  Despite some family films on the horizon, it seems likely that Maleficent will survive Halloween and play decently into November, where it should top $100 million.

Coming in second is Joker, which continues its strong run toward $300 million.  The clown prince of crime was able to snatch away another $19.3 million for a total of $277.9 million.  While there is little chance of Joker becoming the highest-grossing R-rated domestic release, it has already passed Deadpool to become the highest-grossing R-rated worldwide release.

The Addams Family took advantage of the season to come in third, earning a spooky $12 million for an not-at-all ooky $73.1 million.  The new family competition will likely hurt The Addams more than Maleficent, but a $100 million final gross is still on the table.  Besides, the two Addams Family live-action films of the 90s were both Thanksgiving releases, so there's no reason to assume this will collapse after Halloween.

Addams edged out the second weekend of Zombieland: Double Tap, which took in $11.8 million for a ten-day total of $47.2 million.  This is almost precisely where the first Zombieland was at the end of its second weekend.  That said, Double Tap's second weekend is $3 million off its predecessor's second weekend, and the first film still had two more October weekends, while Double Tap will be hitting November and the holiday movies.  It still seems unlikely that, ultimately, Double Tap will be able to equal the first film's grosses, but it shouldn't be too far off.

Opening at #5 was the horror flick Countdown, which took in $8.9 million.  The best comparison for this might be last year's submarine thriller Hunter Killer.  Though not a horror movie, it also opened right before Halloween, to similar numbers.  It ended up topping out at only $15.8 million.  With horror movies usually a one-weekend phenomenon and with Halloween past very soon, Countdown might be counting down to a similar gross.

The cop drama Black and Blue, perhaps the winner of this year's punniest title, opens in #6 with $8.4 million.  Not being a horror movie, this one might end up with stronger legs than Countdown, though I suspect it will also come in under $20 million.

At #7, Gemini Man is looking very much like the flop of the fall.  It grossed $4.1 million to bring its total to $43.4 million and is in real danger of coming in under $50 million.

The Lighthouse, the very odd, very arty black and white horror drama about two lighthouse keepers going slowly mad, expended to nearly 600 theaters and did a surprisingly strong $3 million.  Its ten-day gross is now $3.6 million, and this successful semi-wide release will probably bolster the chances of Oscar nominations for stars Robert Pattinson and Willem Dafoe.

After a two-year delay, The Current War finally debuted in theaters, but had to settle for ninth and $2.6 million, despite playing on nearly twice as many screens as The Lighthouse.  Unusual for a film receiving its initial release, it has been advertised as "The Director's Cut", in an attempt to recover from the poor reviews the original version received at the 2017 Toronto Film Festival.  The new cut's reviews weren't really any better, though, so expect the War to end somewhere just above $5 million.

Rounding out the Top 10, animated disappointment Abominable proved to be anything but, taking in $2.1 million for a gross of $56.9 million.

The beginning of November also means that holiday movies start rolling out, though the first crop isn't particularly inspiring..  Leading the way is Terminator: Dark Fate, the fourth(!) attempt to do a follow-up to the first two films in the series.  This one has been advertised by not only bringing back Arnold Schwarzenegger but also Linda Hamilton, as an older, even more badass Sarah Conner.  Also coming back is James Cameron, who having had minimal involvement in Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, Terminator: Salvation, and Terminator: Genisys, is back to produce and co-write the script (but not to direct).  That doesn't seem to matter, as reviews have been marginal, and just how much interest do people still have in this franchise after so many failed reboots?  Dark Fate will likely open better than Genisys, and almost certainly at #1, but I'd still expect it to finish below $50 million.  Also opening is the animated Arctic Dogs, the biopic Harriet (as in Tubman) and Edward Norton-directed-and-starring 50s set detective drama Motherless Brooklyn.  All three of these will likely finish under $10 million.

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