Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Box Office Discussion: The "Abominable" Show, Man!

Memo to movie studios: the last weekend in September might not be the best place to release your animated Yeti movies.


Following in the Smallfoot-steps of last September's animated Yeti movie, this September's animated Yeti movie, Abominable, which inexplicably largely had the weekend to itself, opened to $20.6 million, a bit down from Smallfoot's $23.1 million.  That film ultimately grossed $83.2 million, a pretty good goal for Abominable.  And while Universal was obviously hoping for a better opening, it is an improvement on last month's opening of Dora and the Lost City of Gold and a huge jump from The Angry Birds Movie 2's first weekend.  Plus, in a year that seemingly has been more dominated by franchises than ever, it does boast a completely original story, which isn't a small thing.

Abominable should hold up well for at least one more weekend, since it will continue to be the only kids movie in wide release until The Addams Family arrives next weekend and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil the weekend after that.

Last week's surprise smash Downton Abbey performed less like an older-skewing period drama and more like a sequel with a massive fan base that just had to see it opening weekend.  It dropped nearly 54% to $14.3 million.  That brings its 10-day total to $58.4 million.  If the film can stabilize, it has a good shot of hitting $100 million. 

One film that's definitely heading toward $100 million is Hustlers, which jumped from 5th to 3rd with $11.4 million.  That brings its total to $80.6 million and should pass the century mark sometime in the next few weeks.

Staying steady in 4th is It: Chapter Two, which brought in $10.3 million.  The horror flick has now earned $193.8 million and should pass $200 million in the next week or two.  Holding up better than expected, though still slipping from 2nd to 5th is Ad Astra.  The Brad Pitt in Space epic earned $10 million in its second weekend for a tend-day total of $35.4 million.  It seems likely to top out between $50 million and $75 million, making it somewhat of a disappointment, though it should handily outgross last year's astronaut movie, First Man (and should also outgross competing astronaut movie Lucy in the Sky, which enters limited release this weekend). 

Coming in 6th is Rambo: Last Blood, which took in $8.6 million for a ten-day total of $33.2 million.  It seems destined to fade much more quickly than Ad Astra, but it does seem like a good bet to top 2008's Rambo's final gross of $42.8 million.  If it is able to stabilize, it has a decent shot of outgrossing 1982's First Blood and 1988's Rambo III as well (usual disclaimer that ticket prices in the 80s were far cheaper than today, and that both First Blood and Rambo III sold far more tickets than Last Blood will).

Opening in 7th is Judy, the Judy Garland biopic starring Renee Zellweger in a comeback performance.  Critics love her but were considerably more lukewarm on the film itself.  It opened to a solid $2.9 million in semi-limited release.  We'll see how it holds up as it goes wider this weekend.

Rounding out the Top 10 are three long-runners.  Good Boys broke the $80 million barrier, to $80.4 million, with a weekend gross of $2.1 million.  The Lion King spent weekend 11 in the Top 10, taking in $1.7 million, for a total of $540.1 million.  Angel Has Fallen brought in $1.5 million for a total of $67.2 million.

Other than Judy's expansion, only one movie goes wide again this weekend: Joker, directed by Todd Phillips and starring Joaquin Phoenix in a portrait of the supervillian as a youngish man.  Like Abominable mirrored the release last year of Smallfoot, Joker mirrors the release of Venom, another movie about a supervillian that largely turns him into an anti-hero, with his primary comic book opponent nowhere to be found.  Joker has one advantage over Venom--it is getting much better reviews (and considerably more controversy than the relatively bland Spider-Man spinoff).  It also has one disadvantage--it is rated R, as opposed to Venom's PG-13.  The Tom Hardy vehicle opened last year to $80.3 million, setting an October record in the process.  We'll see this weekend if Joker can top that.

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