Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Box Office Discussion: Upside "Downton"

What was expected to be a close race at the box office turned into an unexpected rout, as Americans proved to be far more interested in the emotional lives of British aristocracy of the past than the emotional life of an American astronaut of the future.



Opening at #1 is Downton Abbey, the feature film sequel to the beloved British television soap opera about the ever-turbulent lives of a noble family and their household servants.  Reuniting much of the cast of the TV show, the movie focuses on the turmoil surrounding a visit by the King and Queen to the titular house.  Fans, who had been missing the show since it ended in 2015, turned out in droves, as the drama opened to $31 million.

While there have been plenty of adaptions of TV shows over the years, films similar to Downton Abbey, which stars the show's original cast in their original roles, are relatively rare.  Over the last 15 years, there has only been six other live-action film follow-ups to narrative series that have gotten wide release in the US: Serenity, Reno 911!: Miami, Sex and the City, The X-Files: I Want to  Believe, Sex and the City 2, and Entourage.  Of those six, only the first Sex and the City is considered an unqualified success.  If Downton Abbey follows that film's box office trajectory, it will end up with around $80 million domestic.

Coming in second was Ad Astra, the space drama starring Brad Pitt as an astronaut on a journey to find his missing father.  Mostly positive reviews led to some speculation that the film might break out, but it ended up opening to $19 million.  Fall has been a good time in the recent past to release space movies (Gravity, The Martian, Interstellar), but this is in danger of performing more like last year's First Man.

Opening in third is Sylvester Stallone's return to his other signature character, Rambo: Last Blood.  Unlike his return to Rocky in Creed, an Oscar nomination for this one is highly unlikely, as is a $100 million plus domestic gross.  The actioner, where John Rambo goes after a drug cartel that kidnapped his niece, opened to $18.9 million.

The champ for the last two weeks, It: Chapter Two, fell to fourth this weekend with $17 million.  The Stephen King adaption is now up to $178.9 million, and will likely finish in the low $200 millions, well below its predecessor.

In fifth is sleeper hit Hustlers, which took in $16.8 million in its second weekend.  The 10-day total stands at $62.4 million, and is likely heading to a final total over $100 million.

Finishing well back of the top five is The Lion King, still roaring around the Top 10 with $2.7 million.  Its queue now stands at $537.7 million, and Simba et al has an outside shot at a final gross of  $550 million.

In seventh is Good Boys, which took in $2.6 million.  The comedy is now at $77.4 million, and is likely to finish between $85 and $90 million.  Angel Has Fallen took in another $2.4 million, to run its total to $64.7 million.  It should finish between $70 and $75 million.

Rounding out the top 10 is Christian drama Overcomer, which made $1.5 million to bring its total to $31.6 million, around the same final total as director Alex Kendrick's prior titles Fireproof and Courageous, and Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, which also earned $1.5 million for a total of $170.6 million.  It will likely finish around $175 million.

As usual with Hollywood schedule-making, its either feast or famine in terms of new releases.  The next two weeks will see only one new wide release per weekend, before 10 new wide titles crowd themselves into the last three weekends of October.  This weekend's one and only title is DreamWorks Animation's Abominable, a adventure comedy about three kids who attempt to get a yeti back home from the city to the mountains.  It will likely finish at #1, but it is an open question as to how much better it will do compared to last year's yeti animated comedy, Smallfoot, which underperformed.  We'll find out next week.

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