Sunday, March 10, 2024

Box Office Discussion: High "Dune"

 


After a couple of lousy months, Dune Part Two brings the masses back to theaters.

It's no secret that the first two months of 2024 have been fairly awful for the nation's theater owners.  Part of that was due to the lingering effects of the Hollywood strikes last summer, which played havoc with production and the release calendar, and will likely continue to do so for much of the year.  Part of it was the usual fact that January, and to a lesser extent February, is generally a dumping ground for bad or unnecessary movies.  But a big part is that product is way down, and what did get released tended to underperform.  There were certainly solid successes like Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, and Bob Marley: One Love.  But most of the big studio product, from Night Swim to Argylle to Lisa Frankenstein to Madame Web, underperformed and that's not even counting the weeks where the major studios didn't bother to release anything (and the indies that threw something out, like Bleeker Street with I.S.S., found their movies bombing worse than the big studio films).  That helps explain the strong legs of Christmas movies like Wonka, Migration, and Anyone But You.  Sure, people liked all three films, but there wasn't much else out there as alternatives.

March, however, looks to change the trajectory.  March has always been fairly blockbuster friendly, as huge films like The Hunger Games, Alice in Wonderland, Captain Marvel, and Beauty and the Beast opened during the month.  More recently, we've seen The Batman and John Wick Chapter 4 launch.  And March certainly came in like a lion this year with its first wide release, Dune Part Two.

The sci-fi thriller managed to double the opening of the first Dune in October 2021, at it arrived with $82.5 million, the best opening since Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.  It is already the #2 movie of 2024, and likely to be #1 by the time you read this, and will not only be the year's first $100 million grosser, it has a strong shot of being the year's first $200 million grosser as well.  Even $300 million isn't out of the question.  This is further proof that WB's decision to release the studio's entire 2021 lineup day and date on then then HBO Max was incredibly misguided, as the first Dune topped out at $108.3 million, a total that Dune Part Two will likely eclipse by next weekend.

The current #1 movie of 2024, at least until sometime Monday afternoon, is Bob Marley: One Love, which finished way, way, way back of Dune, earning $7.4 million for a total of $82.8 million.  It is running well ahead of where Rocketman was at the end of its third weekend in June 2019, meaning that Marley is likely still on a $100 million trajectory, though there are a couple of adult dramas that will be entering the marketplace in the coming weeks to provide some direct competition.

The heavens didn't rescue Ordinary Angels, as the Hilary Swank-led Christian drama was only blessed with $3.7 million in its second weekend, for a ten-day total of $12.5 million.  It looks like this will struggle to get to $20 million, a bit of a disappointment, given that the production team had a much bigger hit a year ago with Jesus Revolution.

Ordinary Angels did have competition from TV, though, as The Chosen: Season 4, Episodes 7-8 replaced the season's middle batch of episodes in theaters.  The final two episodes launched with $3.3 million, down from Episodes 4-6 two weeks ago.  Still, given that the first 6 episodes brought in a combined $30.5 million of what is essentially free money, expect to see this stunt repeated ahead of the Season 5 premiere in the next year or two.

Madame Web has largely secured its place as the biggest superhero bust of the current era, as it took in $3.2 million for a total of $40.4 million, and still seems like it will be finishing under $50 million.  This is going to be one of the quietest years in terms of superhero movies in ages, as Sony has Kraven the Hunter in August, Venom 3 in November, and maybe Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse, while WB only has Joker: Folie a Deux in October and Disney only has Deadpool and Wolverine in July.  

Migration finally migrates out of the Top 5, but not the Top 10, as the animated comedy flies off with another $2.5 million for a total of $123.5 million.  

Unlike last year with the second weekend of the last Demon Slayer compilation film, Sony did report this weekend's grosses for Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba-To the Hashira Training, made up of the last two episodes of the just concluded Season 3 and the first episode of the upcoming Season 4.  As expected, the title collapsed in its second weekend, falling 81% to $2.1 million, for a ten-day total of $15.7 million.  Still, like the grosses for The Chosen, this is all free money as well as a good advertisement for the upcoming season, which is set to premiere in Japan (and maybe the US) in May.

The other Christmas family movie that refuses to die, Wonka, brought in another $1.7 million for a total of $216.7 million.  Spy comedy Argylle is rapidly falling down the charts, taking in $1.4 million for a total of $44 million.  The Beekeeper is wrapping up a long and successful run, earning $1.1 million for a total of $64.9 million.

Outside the Top Ten, Drive Away Dolls managed to pick up $1 million for at ten-day total of $4.3 million.  You should probably hurry if you want to see it on the big screen, as Dolls looks to be driving away from most theaters very soon.

After two months where the only "new" family films was recycled French cartoons and old Pixars, kids finally have an actual premiere title to pester their parents about seeing.  Kung Fu Panda 4 once again features Jack Black as Dragon Warrior Po, who has to face off against perhaps his most evil challenger yet, in the form of a shape-shifting chameleon voiced by Viola Davis.  This one seems destined to have a long run, as the next family movies won't be arriving until May, but will it open big enough to challenge Dune for the top spot?  Likely fighting it out for third will be the weekend's other two wide openings.  Imaginary (not to be confused with May's much more family-friendly If) is the latest horror title from Blumhouse, about a little girl and her teddy bear, who is of course not just a teddy bear.  This looks to continue the "sinister toys" genre that started with Child's Play and has continued through with the Annabelle films, last year's MEG3N (also from Blumhouse) and arguably even Five Nights at Freddy's.  Meanwhile, Angel Studios, still rolling in the cash generated by Sound of Freedom, has the period Christian drama Cabrini (from Sound of Freedom's director), a biopic about the crusading Catholic missionary Francesca Cabrini, and her work with the poor of New York City in the late 1800s.  This one has a pretty good supporting cast, including David Morse, Giancarlo Giannini, and John Lithgow.  Will Kung Fu Panda chop its way to the top?  Will Dune cover the competition?  Or could Imaginary or Cabrini stage a surprise?  We'll find out next week.

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