Sunday, March 31, 2024

Box Office Discussion: Box Office "Empire" Part 1


 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire has an opening remarkably consistent with its predecessors, while two new horror films more or less cannibalize either other.

It may be 40 years since 1984, but for some reason, that year's cinematic output is still alive and well in 2024.  Netflix is bringing back Eddie Murphy as Axel Foley in a new Beverly Hills Cop movie this summer, last summer saw Harrison Ford don Indiana Jones's fedora one last time, Max premiered a new animated Gremlins series last year, and Netflix will be debuting the final season of Cobra Kai later this year while a new Karate Kid movie is in the works.  In addition, Kevin Bacon is going to the prom at the high school where Footloose was shot, a Purple Rain stage musical is in the works, and of course, the #1 movie of 2024 is Dune.

Right now, however, the biggest sign of 1984's continued influence on pop culture is the #1 opening of the latest sequel to that year's second-biggest film, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire.  That said, Ghostbusters has been reclaiming its cinematic legacy since 2016, with the reboot with Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig (that Sony would be cool if you completely forgot about) and the 2021 direct sequel to the two 80s films, Ghostbusters: Afterlife.  Frozen Empire follows the latter film, as Egon's daughter (Carrie Coon) and grandkids (Finn Wolfhard and McKenna Grace) are now in NYC, having to join the original Ghostbusters in taking down an ancient demon that wants to freeze the entire world.  It opened a bit better than expected, at $45 million.

What is (something) strange (in your neighborhood) is that this is pretty much exactly between the openings of Ghostbusters 2016, which debuted to $46 million and Afterlife, which opened to $44 million.  The two films finished almost exactly $1 million apart in their final grosses, at $128.4 million and $129.4 million, respectively.  That's not as odd as, say, an invisible man sleeping in your bed, but it does give us an idea of where Frozen Empire is heading to.  There is one more blockbuster this coming weekend, and then after that, April is largely going to be filled with lower-profile releases until The Fall Guy arrives in early May, meaning that Frozen Empire has room to run.

Staying in second for the third weekend in a row is the aforementioned Dune: Part Two, which picked up another $17.6 million for a spicy, year-leading $233.4 million.  It has now past Warner's long-running Christmas hit Wonka, and still has a shot at $300 million, though it will need a strong, steady performance through April to get there.  At any rate, it has a strong chance of staying the year's #1 movie until at least May, and maybe until June or early July, when it is likely Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 surpass it.

After two weeks on top, Kung Fu Panda 4 falls to third, with $16.5 million for a total of $132.9 million.  With Migration and the aforementioned Wonka now having mostly exited theaters, it's a bit surprising that Panda is fading faster than expected, but again, there are still 8 more weekends until IF arrives, so I would expect the numbers to stabilize.  That said, like with Dune, it will take Panda staying steady through April to hit $200 million.

Ghostbusters is first and foremost a comedy, but there are definitely plenty of horrific elements mixed into the batch, which is why its a bit surprising that two actual horror films decided to take it head on.  The bigger, if less acclaimed, of the duo is Immaculate, starring Sydney Sweeney as a nun newly arrived at an Italian convent who discovers that sinister forces abound.  There's been a lot of religious horror movies lately, from The Pope's Exorcist to The Nun II to The Exorcist: Believer, and even with Sweeney, there wasn't much distinguishing this from the others.  It opened to an OK $5.3 million, and unless there's an Easter surge next weekend, seems likely to be heading toward a final gross of under $15 million.

Hopes that word-of-mouth might help save Arthur the King didn't materialize as the man-and-his-dog-on-an-endurance-race movie picked up only $4.3 million, for a ten-day total of $14.5 million and a likely final gross somewhere between $20 and $25 million.  This is another unfortunate flop for Mark Wahlberg, who will likely be heading back to headlining straight-to-streaming releases.

The other horror movie will likely be outgrossed by Immaculate but will almost certainly live on as a cult hit for years to come.  Late Night With the Devil is a rare wide release from IFC, and they and star David Dastmalchian pulled out all the stops for the film, about a 70s talk show host whose decision one Halloween night to book a guest possibly possessed by a demon has horrific consequences.  With $2.8 million, this was IFC's biggest opening ever, though given all the hype, one might have expected the number to be bigger, and wonders why they opened directly against another new horror film.  However, this might be the rare chiller with decent legs, and will likely prove quite popular on streaming.

The horror movie that was already in the marketplace, Imaginary, understandably had a sharp fall this weekend, to $2.8 million, and now has a very real total of $23.6 million, and is likely heading to a final number between $25 and $30 million.  Neo-noir Love Lies Bleeding, another likely future cult hit, saw another jump in its theater count, but still dropped from last weekend, to $1.6 million.  Its total stands at $5.7 million.

Rounding out the Top 10, religious drama Cabrini is on its way out, taking in $1.4 million for a total of $16.2 million.  Unless it has an Easter weekend surge, expect this one to top out at about $20 million.  Also wrapping up its run is Bob Marley: One Love, with $1.1 million, for a total of $95.3 million.  It looks like it will come up just short of $100 million, but will still be the biggest movie released in January and February by quite a margin.

Outside the Top 10, Luca became the third and final Pixar pandemic era film to get a belated theatrical release, and managed to do even worse than Turning Red and Soul did, opening to a meager $0.6 million.  Among last week's newcomers, One Life earned $1 million for a ten-day total of $3.5 million, while The American Society of Magical Negroes completely collapsed, taking in only $0.4 million for a ten-day total of $2.2 million.

Often, major movies open on the Wednesday before Easter, to take advantage of people staying out late on Thursday because they don't have work or school on Friday.  However, thanks to Thursday previews, this week's new opening, Godzilla x Kong: the New Empire is technically opening on Friday, while still running most of the day on Thursday.  At any rate, after destroying Hong Kong but good in the last one, the two titans must band together to fight an even more dire threat, while the human actors try not to get squished underneath.  This one will likely reverse the trend of these monster movies, where each successive one opened to less and made less overall than its predecessor, culminating with the fourth entry in the series, Godzilla vs. Kong opened to just $32.2 million and topped out at $100.9 million.  However, that was considered a triumph three years ago, as it was the biggest opening of the pandemic era at the time, and GvK became the second movie to hit the $100 million mark since lockdowns began.  So GxK will likely do better.  There has been a lot of monster mash lately, as Apple TV+'s spin-off series Monarch: Legacy of Monsters being a solid success and the Japanese made Godzilla Minus One being an unexpected smash over the holidays, making $56.4 million and finishing as the third-highest-grossing subtitled film in North American box-office history (not to mention its surprise Oscar win for Visual Effects).  The question is did those projects whet the appetite for Godzilla x Kong, or sate the appetite for monster destruction.  Also opening is In the Land of Saints and Sinners, another Liam Neeson Old Man Of Action movie, though this one takes place amid The Troubles in Ireland during the 1970s, in which Neeson's retired IRA hitman has to confront a newcomer (Kerry Condon) intent on bringing the violence home.  Godzilla will almost certainly win the weekend, but how big will their New Empire get?  Or could the Frozen Empire come out on top?  We'll find out next week.

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