Thursday, January 4, 2024

Box Office Discussion: "Wonka"n' Around the Christmas Tree


 Wonka has a decent, but not scrumdidilyumptious, opening.

(Getting closer to being caught up!)

Hollywood seems to have forgotten how to release movies in December.  It wasn't so long ago that moviegoers could find big studio releases each and every week during the final month of the year.  But then the major studios stopped opening movies on the first week of the month, then the second.  Now, it's looking like the third might be in danger of becoming a wasteland as well, as, after two solid weeks of nothing new from the Big 5, we get a single new title with Warner's Wonka.  And Wonka might just be out this week because Warners has an abundance of product to drop, with another film set to roll out next Friday and yet another one arriving on Christmas Day.  To be fair, this may be more due to the extra long post-Thanksgiving period this year, with that holiday being the second-earliest day it can fall on.  In 2024, Thanksgiving will be on the latest day it can be, which means the third weekend of December will start on December 20, and we already have a couple major titles set for that day next year (there are even some major titles set for December 13, though we'll see if those stay on that date).

At any rate, the first major studio title of the month, Wonka, opened to solid numbers, taking in $39 million.  Given that we've gotten used to summer-like, eye-popping openings in December, that's not a huge amount.  However, even though December can lead to explosive launches for films like Avatar or Spider-Man, or Star Wars, most titles open more modestly and the hits build their totals from good word-of-mouth and long, leggy runs.  Wonka opened better than Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle did back in 2017, or Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse in 2018, or Sing 2 in 2021.  Heck, just last year, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish opened to just $12.4 million and finished its run at $186 million.  It is certainly way too early to proclaim Wonka a potential $200 million-grosser, especially because it will be facing more family competition than Puss did.  But with surprisingly strong reviews and good word-of-mouth, Wonka might end up being a much bigger hit than it initially seemed.

Coming in second for the third weekend in a row, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is the biggest movie of the holidays so far.  It gets that position mostly by default, as it's living up to expectations while most of its early-season competition quickly fizzled out.  Still, there's a lot to be said about being a steady performer week in and week out.  The prequel brought in $5.8 million for a total of $145.3 million.  With the onslaught of product coming over the next week, Hunger might have trouble keeping screens.  But if it can hang on and ride the post-Christmas wave, it still has a solid shot of finishing around $170 million.

Anime titles tend to have a short shelf life, and while the drop for last week's #1, The Boy and the Heron, isn't all that huge (57%), its enough to drop it to third with $5.5 million.  The swan song from the legendary Hayao Miyazaki, the drama, likely to be in a fierce competition for the Animated Feature Oscar with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, has a ten-day total of $23.5 million.  It might too have trouble retaining screens after Christmas, but hitting $40 million is not out of the question, a feat only three other anime titles--the first two Pokémon films and Demon Slayer: Mugen Train--has accomplished.  No matter what, it will be by far the highest-grossing Miyazaki film in North America.

Speaking of surprisingly leggy Japanese cinema, Godzilla Minus One keeps stomping around the Top 5, roaring though another $5 million to bring its total to $34.4 million.  This is by far the biggest gross for a live-action Japanese movie ever in North America, and one of the biggest grosses for a film only available theatrically in a language other than English (both The Boy and the Heron and Demon Slayer: Mugan Train were released theatrically both dubbed into English and the original Japanese soundtrack with subtitles, and the Pokémons were, of course, only released in English).  It has now passed Amélie and should pass Pan's Labyrinth by next weekend.  While Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon's title is almost certainly safe, it's not too much of a stretch to see it get the $23 million it would need to pass Life is Beautiful to become the second-biggest foreign language title ever released in North America.

The two Thanksgiving animated titles continue to be right next to each other on the chart, though one is soaring well above the other.  Trolls Band Together continues to strive for $100 million, taking in $4 million for a total of $86.6 million.  Wish, on the other hand, will be lucky to break $65 million, hitting $3.2 million for a total of $54.2 million.  Both films will likely be down to matinees only at whatever theaters are still showing them by next week, and both will be hampered by considerable competition.  But Trolls is likely to actually stay in more theaters than Wish, so it has a better shot of getting the $13 million it needs than Wish does of getting $11 million more.

Thanksgiving's other expensive disappointment, Napoleon, earning $2.3 million for a total of $57.1 million.  Its running a full $10 million behind Killers of the Flower Moon, which is an hour longer and is much more likely to get major Oscar nominations than Napoleon.

Only two weeks after topping the chart, Renaissance, A Film By Beyoncé, is already dancing toward the exits, with $1.9 million.  Given that the film opened to $22 million, the fact it's now only up to $30.8 million is rather surreal.  In a fall that's seen multiple films that earned more than half their final gross opening weekend, Renaissance is going to end up easily the most front-loaded.

Despite playing on only 82 screens, Poor Things, the decidedly eccentric black comedy-fantasy from the decidedly eccentric Yorgos Lanthimos, bursts into the Top 10 with $1.3 million, for a ten-day total of $2.2 million.  With a starry cast including Emma Stone and Mark Ruffalo, terrific reviews, and good word-of-mouth, it's not surprising that the film, which should get a raft of Oscar nominations in the near future, is doing so well in limited release.  Wide release, however, hasn't been kind to many arty films this year at all, so we'll see what expansion does to its numbers next week.

Rounding out the Top 10, The Shift, the Christian sci-fi thriller from tiny, very rich Angel Studios, is no Sound of Freedom, but it didn't do too badly for itself, as it exits the Top 10 with $1.1 million for a total of $10.7 million and likely increased visability on whatever streaming service the title ends up on.

Outside the Top 10, Waitress: The Musical was denied a second piece of pie and Die Hard won't make it to Christmas, as the second weekend of both those titles plunged well under $1 million.  Ten-day totals stand at $4.9 million and $1.7 million.

The Top 10 should look much different next week thanks to the onslaught of new movies hitting theaters.  Likley fighting it out for Wonka for the top spot will be Warner stablemate Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, which, for all intents and purposes, will be the final film in the current DCU before the upcoming near-complete reboot.  Advance buzz for the waterlogged actioner hasn't exactly been stellar, and outside of Spider-Man and the Guardians of the Galaxy, it's been a lousy year for superheroes.  We'll see if Aquaman can find the way of the water and redeem the genre for the year.  Also opening is Migration, the latest from Illumination, about a family of ducks that find themselves stuck in New York, which will be looking to drain off the family audiences from Wonka.  Opening a bit farhter down will liikely be the romcom Anyone But You, starring Glenn Powell and Sydney Sweeney, both carrying a major movie for the first time, with a plot that sounds a whole lot like a younger version of last year's Ticket to Paradise.  Finally, The Iron Claw is the tragic tale of the Von Erichs, a family of wrestling superstars until one horrific death after another decimated the family.  It stars Zac Efron and Jeremy Allen White.  Will Aquaman swim to the top?  Will Migration fly to the heights of the box office?  Or can it be a sweet second weekend for Wonka?  We'll find out next week.

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