Wonka wins the first weekend of 2024, while the first movie of 2024 fails to scare up much business.
(Hey, I'm all caught up! Thanks for putting up with these being weeks late the last couple of months)
The world continues to be sweet for Wonka. The Timothée Chalamet-starring prequel musical to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory came in #1 for the third time in four weeks and has officially become the biggest movie of the holiday season. The film took in $14.1 million for a total of $164.3 million, enough for it to slide past The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes. Next up--a spot in 2023's overall Top 10, which since it is only a little over $15 million behind #10 Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, seems very doable before the end of January.
Since 2005 kicked up with the surprise success of White Noise, followed a year later by the surprise success of Hostel, horror movies have been the first release of the new year more often than not. 2023's launcher, M3GAN, proved to be one of the most successful of these titles, opening to a surprise $30 million. Jason Blum and James Wan, who produced that title, hoped that audiences would be just as pumped to start this year with a haunted swimming pool as they were to start last year with a killer robot. Alas, Night Swim, starring Wyatt Russell and Kerry Condon, could only dogpaddle to $11.8 million, about what the unnecessary remake of The Grudge did back at the beginning of 2020. Given how fast horror movies burn out, there's an excellent chance this could drown before even getting to M3GAN's opening weekend numbers. At least Night Swim will have a few days to enjoy being 2024's highest-grossing movie.
In third, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom moved closer to becoming the highest-grossing superhero flop of 2023, as it made $10.6 million to move to $100 million, one of two films to pass the century mark this weekend. The good news is that it could pass The Flash as early as this weekend. The bad news is that it will still finish over $200 million below what the first Aquaman made in 2018. At least the gap won't be as big as the one between Captain Marvel and The Marvels.
It's not clear if Migration is hurting Wonka, but it seems very likely that Wonka is hurting Migration. Illumination's attempt to launch a new franchise is coming in for a landing faster than expected. This weekend, it brought in $10 million for a total of $77.6 million. And with most kids now back in school weekday grosses will likely crawl from now on. Still, this will likely make it to $100 million, but is highly unlikely to be the long-playing phenom Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was last year.
Back in 1996, a teenage slasher film with comic undertones, Scream, debuted to modest numbers the weekend before Christmas. Word of mouth began to spread, though, and the next two weeks saw Scream's numbers leap higher than the weekend before, something that, even in the mid-90s, was exceedingly rare without a major theatrical expansion. 27 years later, history appears to be repeating itself with Anyone But You. As a romcom, it's very different from Scream, but it is also proving to be that rare word-of-mouth hit that is bringing its number higher each weekend. This week, it made $9.8 million, to bring its total to $44 million. With the exhibition business being very different than it was in the mid-to-late 90s, its highly unlike that Anyone But You can follow Scream all the way to the $100 million club. But it should end up being the rare Friday wide release that manages to make less than 10% of its overall gross on its opening weekend.
In 6th, The Boys in the Boat keeps rowing along, taking in $5.6 million, for a 14-day total of $33.5 million. This looks likely to finish around $45 million, but some steady pumping could get the film above $50 million.
The Color Purple burst out of the gate on Christmas Day with a remarkable $18.2 million. By December 26, it was already over. No three-day stretch since then has come close to that Christmas number, and indeed, the movie's second, third, and fourth biggest days combined still come below what Christmas Day did all by itself. The rather dramatic slide continues with a $4.6 million weekend, for a 14-day total of $54.5 million. At this point, it seems likely that more than 25% of Purple's final gross will be from Christmas.
In 8th, The Iron Claw continues its steady run. The drama took in $4 million for a 14-day total of $24.3 million and might be heading toward $35 million.
Ferrari is already speeding toward the exit, despite solid reviews. The drama could only come up with $2.5 million, for a 14-day-total of $16 million. It looks to finish between $20 and $25 million.
The tenth spot sees the return of Poor Things to the Top 10. The major Oscar contender brought in $2 million for a total of $14.2 million. With The Holdovers and Priscilla having largely ended their runs, the table is set for this to be the biggest arty Oscar contender of the holiday season.
Outside the Top 10, Trolls Band Together joined Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom in slipping past the $100 million mark. They are the 23rd and 24th films of 2023 to pass that mark. Migration is the only remaining title with a realistic chance of joining that club, but The Color Purple and Anyone But You do both retain slim chances if the former ends up unexpectedly a major Oscar play and the latter keeps its scorching hot legs going.
It seems likely Wonka will relinquish the top spot this weekend, and the most likely suspect to pick it up is Mean Girls. The 2004 comedy, which starred Lindsey Lohan and Rachel McAdams, has remained a cultural touchstone, with Ariana Grande recreating the movie's "Jingle Bell Rock" number in her "Thank U, Next" video and Walmart reuniting most of the young cast (except for McAdams) in for its 2023 Black Friday campaign. Writer/co-star Tina Fey and her husband, musician Jeff Richmond turned it into a Broadway musical that opened in 2018. Said musical has now been re-adapted into a movie (though you wouldn't guess it was a musical based on the ad campaign) with Angourie Rice (best known for playing Betty Brant in the MCU Spider-Man movies) and Reneé Rapp (one of the leads on The Sex Lives of College Girls) in the Lohan and McAdams roles. Fey and Tim Meadows reprise their roles from the original, and Jon Hamm, Jenna Fischer, and Busy Phillips round out the main adult roles. The original opened to $24.4 million 20 years ago. We'll see if this one can match that number. Also arriving is The Book of Clarence, a religious satire from The Harder They Fall director Jeymes Samuel, starring LaKeith Stanfield as a schlub in 33 AD Jerusalem who decides to cash in on the Messiah craze by declaring himself one. This one has an impressive supporting cast. Also arriving with a cast that's probably better than the material is The Beekeeper, the latest actioner from Jason Statham, as a retired secret government agent who goes after a bunch of scammers. Also arriving are several Indian movies hoping to secure slots in the Top 10, and the much-belated theatrical release of Soul, the Pixar movie that Disney (understandably) sent straight to Disney+ in December 2020 (not-so-understandable are the decisions to do the same to Luca and Turning Red, both of which will also be finally arriving in theaters in the next couple of months). Will Mean Girls finally make "fetch" happen? Could The Book of Clarence ascend to heaven, or at least the top spot? Could The Beekeeper blow up the competition? Or will Wonka have a sweet surprise under its hat? We'll find out next week.
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