Monday, September 18, 2023

Box Office Discussion: "Nun" of the Above


 The Nun II has a solid start, while the third time isn't really the charm for My Big Fat Greek Wedding.

(Almost caught up!  We should have the entry for this past weekend up later this week).

If you define a cinematic universe as a series of interrelated films with multiple characters taking the lead at one point or another, then really, the only three true universes going right now are the MCU, the DCU, and the Conjuring Universe (series like Harry Potter, in which 8 of the 11 movies had the same lead, and the other three were also led by one character, or Fast and the Furious, in which 9 of the 11 movies centered around one or both of the franchise's two main characters, don't count).  The MCU, of course, continues to fly high, churning out at least a couple of movies every year, each one pretty much guaranteed a minimum of $200 million domestic.  The DCU is falling apart and is about to be completely rebooted.  And then there is The Conjuring, which, dollar for dollar, might very well have the best return on investment of any of the series.  The first 8 films of the franchise cost a combined $180 million to make (by comparison, the cheapest MCU movie, the first Ant-Man, cost $130 million all by itself) and returned $740 million combined domestically, and another billion from overseas.  Sure, one MCU movie can make that much, but all but one of the titles that made over a billion total worldwide cost more on its own than the entire Conjuring Universe.

The Universe has been on hiatus for a couple of years, since the somewhat disappointing (but still extremely profitable) release of The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, but scary movies never seem to go out of style, especially at this time of the year.  So now we have The Nun II, once again starring Tassa Farmiga as a nun (not the titular one) once again battling the evil demon Valak, who continues to pose as a (titular) nun.  The first Nun opened five years ago to an unexpectedly outstanding $53.8 million.  This one can't quite measure up to that one, but did come up with $32.6 million, a number roughly on par with what Insidious: The Red Door (directed by and starring Conjuring Universe mainstay Patrick Wilson, who also cameos in this one) opened to in July.  Insidious, which has largely completed its theatrical run, has grossed $82.2 million.  If The Nun is able to hit that mark, it will be the franchise's best number since the first Nun.

Last week's champ, The Equalizer 3, suffered from a fairly serious sophomore slump, falling 65% to $12 million.  It has a ten-day total of $61.8 million.  That puts it behind both the second weekend earnings and second weekend gross of the first two films.  As they each barely made it over $100 million, Equalizer 3 is in danger of missing that number entirely, though it should still finish above $90 million.

21 years ago, the modest, independently produced romcom My Big Fat Greek Wedding became an out-of-nowhere smash, ultimately grossing $241.4 million.  Star Nia Vardalos has never come close to recapturing the magic of the first film, though I guess 2016's My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 did well enough to justify My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3, which actually sees Vardalos and the franchise's other regulars (including John Corbitt, Lainie Kazan, Andrea Martin, and Joey Fatone) go to Greece for the first time in the series.  The franchise still has its loyal fans, as it opened to an OK $10 million.  The budget on this is fairly low (under $20 million) and this is the type of movie that does frequently have decent legs, so a final gross between $40 and $50 million is still very much on the table.

It's been a while--January, to be precise--since an Indian movie made it to the weekend Top 5. Bollywood returns to the top reaches of the chart with the action thriller Jawan, starring superstar Shah Rukh Khan, in a dule role.  It brought in $6.1 million over the weekend and $7.5 million since its Wednesday opening.  Like all Bollywood films, expect this one to fade very fast, and most likely peter out before it hits $20 million.

After spending 7 weeks in the Top 2, Barbie begins to come back to earth, as America's favorite doll brought in $5.7 million to bring its total to a dreamhouse worthy $620.3 million.  As the film is already heading to digital, we'll see if at-home availability will lead to a big drop-off in box office in the coming weeks.

Blue Beetle is beginning to come to the end of the long and winding road, as it finished with $3.8 million for a total of $63.8 million.  Coming to end of that road even more quickly is Gran Turismo, which took in $3.5 million for a total of $35.8 million.

After Sound of Freedom, Oppenheimer may be the summer's most unexpected smash.  The biopic earned another $3.1 million for a total of $315.2 million.  We'll see if there's enough explosive material left in it to pass Deadpool 2 and It to become the 5th-highest grossing R-rated film ever.  Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem is wrapping up what turned out to be a pretty good summer for animation, taking in $2.8 million for a gross of $111.5 million.

Round out the Top 10, raunchy comedy Bottoms has to settle for the bottom of the chart in only its second wide weekend, earning only $2 million for a total of $7.6 million.  It should pick up a healthy cult when it his streaming in the next few months.

This weekend sees the release of only one wide new release.  Less than two years after investigating a Death on the Nile, Herclue Poirot, in the personage of Kenneth Branagh, is back, this time inspecting A Haunting in Venice.  This one feels considerably less star-studded than his previous Agatha Christie adaptions, with Michelle Yeoh, Tiny Fey, and Jamie Dornan the big names among the suspects and/or victims.  Death on the Nile opened at #1, albeit to only $12.9 million.  Could Haunting scare up more business, enough to open at the top of the chart?  Or could The Nun pray for a miracle?  We'll find out next week.

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