Box Office Discussion: All Things Being "Equal"

 The Equalizer dominates an otherwise slow Labor Day weekend.

(Still playing catch-up)

Denzel Washington starred in his first major movie in 1981.  He would proceed to make over 40 movies over the next three and a half decades, not a single one a sequel.  That streak ended in 2018, when he starred in The Equalizer 2.  After five more years of not making any other sequels, he made his third one, The Equalizer 3, which handedly won the holiday weekend.

One of the remarkable things about this franchise is how, well, equal the numbers are.  In 2014, the first film opened to $34.1 million.  Four years later, Equalizer 2 opened to $36 million.  And now, Equalizer 3 opens the Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend to $34.6 million (it would earn another $8.2 million on Monday).  The first two films finished their runs at $101.5 million and $102.1 million, respectively.  Will this finish almost equally as well?  It's too early to say, but the scales do appear to be weighted in favor of that outcome.

Finishing in 2nd for the third weekend in a row--and seeing the second consecutive movie that opened above it plunge below it its second weekend--is Barbie, which took in another $10.2 million to crack the $600 million mark, finishing Sunday night with $609.1 million.  It is still ahead of where Top Gun: Maverick was at the end of its seventh weekend last year, but Maverick is now outpacing Barbie on weekend grosses (it made $15.5 million on weekend #7).  Plus, Maverick hit its seventh weekend in mid-July, meaning it will also have much better weekday numbers for the next several weeks, now that nearly all kids are back to school.  So don't expect Barbie to hit $700 million, but to be fair, I was saying the same thing last year about Maverick as it hit $600 million.

Blue Beetle stayed steady at 3, coming up with another $7.1 million for a total of $56.4 million.  At the very least, it can claim the best legs of a DC movie this year, as its third weekend is better than both Shazam! Fury of the God's and The Flash's.  Indeed, it's only a few million behind the final gross of Shazam at this point.  It won't be able to catch The Flash, but a final gross north of $70 million is likely, which wouldn't really turn this into a hit, nor be a justification for not rebooting the whole DCU, but at least it will be respectable.

Crashing and burning well short of the finish line, last week's champ Gran Turismo plunged over 60% to $6.6 million, for a ten-day total of $28.7 million.  Word of mouth has been decent, so there's a chance the film could stabilize in the coming weeks.  At this point, however, a final gross around $40 million seems to be likely.

Oppenheimer is beginning to fallout of theaters, as it took in $5.8 million to bring its total to $308.8 million.  It becomes the 7th R-rated film in history to top $300 million.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem also hit a big round number this past week, as it topped the century mark.  The animated superhero movie earned $4.7 million for a total of $106.4 million.  It becomes only the third TMNT title to pass $100 million.

After opening in limited release last weekend, raunchy high-school lesbian comedy Bottoms went semi-wide, enough to land in 7th place with a gross of $3.1 million.  It has a ten-day total of $3.8 million.  We'll see if word-of-mouth on this one carries it past fellow R-rated comedy Joy Ride, which came and went in July despite good reviews.  

Meg 2: The Trench continues to swim along, earning $2.8 million to bring its total to $78.3 million.  It seems likely to come to shore around $85 million.  Another movie about unhappy animals, Strays, earned $2.6 million, for a total of $20.8 million.  This one is likely to finish below $25 million.

Rounding out the Top 10, sleeper horror hit Talk to Me stayed in 10th for the second weekend in a row, scaring up $1.8 million for a total of $44.2 million.  

Outside the Top 10, inspirational drama The Hill didn't exactly inspire anyone, coming in 11th at $1.5 million for a ten-day total of $4.8 million.  That was still better than the Liam Neeson vehicle Retribution, which looks like it's going to end up as one of his lowest Old Man of Action thrillers.  It came in 15th, below much older titles Haunted Mansion, Mission: Impossible-Dead Reckoning Part One, and Elemental, scraping up only $1.1 million for a ten-day total of $5.9 million.  Still, at least it finished over a million, something fellow 2nd weekenders Golda and Jurassic Park can't say.  They have ten-day totals of $3.2 million and $2.7 million, respectively (of course, in Jurassic Park's case, that money is purely gravy, and enough to push its all-time gross past 2002's Spider-Man for #42 all time).

The Equalizer 3 kicks a September especially loaded with sequels.  Two more arrive this weekend.  Hoping to knock Denzel out of first is the evil demon nun of The Nun 2, a follow-up to the smash horror hit of 2018 and the first Conjuring Universe movie since The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It in 2021.  Even before the pandemic, The Conjuring Universe was beginning to decline, so don't expect Nun 2 to equal $53.8 million opening.  But a first place arrival in the $30 million range will likely mean this entry should be profitable as well.  Also opening is My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3, here to remind you that the first Big Fat Greek Wedding came out 21(!) years ago, and today would likely be a Hulu original.  This one, in which Nia Vardalos (who also directs) and John Corbitt finally actually go to Greece, isn't expected to make a huge impact, but then again, neither was the first one.  Could Greek Wedding yell "Opa!" from the top of the chart?  Should we say a little prayer for The Nun?  Could Equalizer bring balance to the charts?  Could Barbie's pink reign continue?  We'll find out next week.