Thursday, August 17, 2023

Box Office Discussion: Billion-Dollar "Barbie"


 Barbenheimer continues to dominate, while The Last Voyage of The Demeter runs aground.

One of the most fascinating things about the reign of Barbie, which has now passed the $1 billion mark worldwide is that, despite playing against very tough competition, no title has yet to come close to it.  Its opening weekend, it nearly doubled the gross of Oppenheimer, a movie that is currently the 6th-highest grossing film of the year.  The next week, it more than doubled Oppenheimer's gross.  Last week, Meg 2 managed to open to $30 million and still Barbie was more than $20 million above.  This week, Oppenheimer is back in second, and Barbie is still making nearly twice as much per weekend.

Our pink queen brought in another $33.8 million in its fourth weekend, to bring its total to $526.4 million.  It is still running well ahead of where Top Gun: Maverick was at the same point in its run, suggesting that Barbie could also be heading toward $700 million.  It's probably premature to suggest that possibility (Top Gun opened in May, meaning it had weeks and weeks of strong weekday sales before the beginning of the 2022-2023 school year started cutting into those numbers.  Barbie is about to run headlong into the beginning of the 2023-2024 school year).   But a gross over $600 million is very much assured at this point.  Looking ahead for the rest of the year, it's really hard to see another title that has a legitimate chance of hitting the $600 million mark, with Wonka and The Marvels being the only real possibilities, and both of those are long shots.

Oppenheimer continues to operate in Barbie's shadow, but what a lucrative shadow that is.  The biopic took in another $18.8 million, to bring its gross to an incandescent $264.3 million.  It continues to be on pace to become only the 7th R-rated film to hit the $300 million mark.  Unlike Barbie, Oppenheimer likely won't be hurt too much by the start of school, but the impending loss of its IMAX screens could end up having a similar result.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem held up decently for 3rd, taking in $15.3 million for a twelve-day total of $72.3 million.  The latest incarnation of the heroes in a half shell looks to be heading toward $100 million, most likely by the end of August.  If it does, it will be only the third Ninja Turtle film to cross the century mark.

Coming with easily the worst drop in the Top 10, Meg 2: The Trench slides 57% to $12.9 million, for a ten-day total of $54.3 million.  Not only will this finish well short of the first Meg's $145.5 million, it will likely not even make it to the $100 million mark.  Don't hold your breath for Meg 3.

Universal Studios has had very bad luck with Dracula this year.  Four months after Renfield crashed and burned, the studio's second variation featuring the world's most famous vampire, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, sank with an opening of just $6.5 million.  This probably got an August release because its director, André Øvredal, had an August horror hit four years ago with Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark.  However, while that film had, like this one, no one truly notable in the cast, it did benefit from a familiar title, good reviews, and a PG-13 rating, none of which Demeter has.  Renfield finished its run at $17.2 million.  It seems likely that Demeter will end up looking up at that number.

Haunted Mansion continues to stay surprisingly in sync with the 2003 version, as Mansion'23 took in $5.8 million, to bring its total to $53.1 million, almost exactly where the version 20 years ago was after its third weekend.  Of course, ticket prices 20 years ago were lower, meaning that Mansion'03 was selling a lot more tickets than the current version is doing.

Talk to Me has emerged as the sleeper horror hit of the summer, after falling a slim 19% to $5.1 million, brining its total to $31.3 million, not bad for a movie that cost less than $5 million to make.  It seems likely to pass The Boogeyman, which has largely finished its run with $43.2 million, to become the summer's second-biggest horror movie, and has an outside shot of hitting $50 million.

Sound of Freedom is beginning to go silent, but the ultimate summer sleeper isn't quite done yet, as it took in $4.9 million for a total of $172.9 million, enough for it to inch pass the much more expensive, much more hyped Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.  Mission: Impossible-Dead Reckoning Part 1 is also closing out its disappointing run, bringing in $4.6 million for a total of $159.5 million.

Opening at #10 is the Indian thriller Jailer, in which a former cop/prison guard goes after the mobster he suspects of having murdered his son (don't be surprised if Liam Neeson eventually stars in the American remake).  Bollywood fans came out in force, as it took in $2.5 million over the weekend and $4.1 million since its Wednesday opening.

Outside the Top 10, Elemental passed the $150 million mark and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has officially double the gross of Into the Spider-Verse.

This week sees the most significant threat to the continued reign of Barbie.  Gunning for the top spot will be Blue Beetle, the latest superhero movie.  DC, which has a pair of flops this year with Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash, has high hopes for this stand-alone entry, in which a young 20-something (Xolo Maridueña, best known for co-starring on Cobra Kai) finds himself fused with a piece of alien tech which turns him into the titular crimefighter.  Susan Sarandon, the best-known person in the cast, plays the villain.  This one is being received fairly warmly, and might be the much-needed hit for DC.  Meanwhile Strays is a raunchy R-rated comedy about a dog (voiced by Will Ferrell, also in Barbie) trying to find its way back to his neglectful owner (Will Forte).  This is launching in the same mid-August slot that saw Sausage Party and Good Boys, both also raunchy R-rated comedies featuring unlikely protagonists for a raunchy R-rated comedy (animated food and 6th grade kids), become solid hits.  Will Blue Beetle fly to the top of the charts?  Could Strays bark up the right tree and hit #1?  Or will Barbie's pink reign continue?  We'll find out next week.

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