Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Box Office Discussion: The Pick of "Destiny"


 On the pre-holiday weekend, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny rang up a disappointing opening, though at least it wasn't the disaster that Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken was.

Harrison Ford was the second actor who starred in at least one $100 million grossing movie domestic in five straight decades (Dustin Hoffman, who got a decade jump on him thanks to The Graduate, was the first), thanks, in large part, to his prominent roles in two of the biggest franchises of all time, Star Wars and Indiana Jones.  Very soon, most likely by this coming weekend, he'll be the first to star in at least one $100 million grossing live-action movie in six straight decades (Hoffman also qualifies for the "six straight decades" honor, but you have to count his voiceover roles in the Kung Fu Panda series for his entries for the teens).  But for eager Disney executives, who spent an estimated $300 million to bring Indy back to the big screen for one last hurrah, just having a $100 million, or even $200 million grosser isn't going to be good enough, as the fifth and final Indiana Jones adventure, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, didn't produce any fireworks ahead of the 4th of July.

Dial stumbled out of the gate, whipping up only $60.4 million through Sunday.  That's a bit less than what Transformers: Rise of the Beasts made three weeks ago, and at the very bottom of expectations.  Dial was probably hurt by the fact that despite his legendary status, Ford hasn't been front and center in a hit movie that doesn't stem from a franchise that pre-dates Microsoft Windows since What Lies Beneath in 2000.  Dial was probably also hurt by the less-than-glowing reputation of the last Indy movie, 2008's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skulls.  Of course, the last time that Ford revived a legacy character, with Han Solo in Star Wars: The Force Awakens, that only became the highest grossing domestic movie of all time, despite the less-than-stellar reputation of the prequel trilogy.  But Star Wars occupies a rarified place in pop culture that Indy, for all of his popularity, just can't reach.  Good word of mouth should help the box office of this recover a bit--it seems unlikely to be a bigger flop than The Flash--but with the next Mission: Impossible movie (starring Tom Cruise, a fellow member of the Five Straight Decades club and a guy who knows a thing or two about successfully reviving a legacy franchise) only a week away, Indy doesn't have much time to keep the action crowd for himself.

In a recovery that Indy can probably only dream of, Elemental spent its third straight week at #2, burning through another $12.1 million.  That's only a small 34% drop from last week and nearly twice what Lightyear made on the same weekend last year.  Elemental has now taken in $89.6 million and should be above $100 million by the end of next weekend, which should put it toward a final gross of around $1245-$130 million.  In a sign of how both of Disney's two major animation divisions are struggling right now, that would be easily the highest that any of its animated films have grossed domestically since the beginning of the pandemic.  Wish, at Thanksgiving, really needs to be a huge hit, if not on the level of Frozen II, at least on the level of Puss in Boots 2.

Coming close, but having to settle for third, was last week's champ, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which spun up another $12 million for a total of $340.3 million.  There's a good chance it will be the summer's highest-grosser--for now--by the end of next weekend.

Raunchy R-rated comedy No Hard Feelings fell an acceptable 47% from its opening last weekend, to $7.9 million.  Its ten-day total stands at $29.7 million, to keep it on pace for a final near or above $50 million.  Still, there might be trouble ahead, as Feelings isn't going to be the only raunchy R-rated comedy in theaters on Friday.

The aforementioned Transformers: Rise of the Beasts booked $7.4 million, to move its gross to $136.5 million, enough to push it past both Bumblebee and Transformers: The Last Knight.  It looks to be heading to about $155-$160 million.  

Opening dismally in 7th is Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken.  The DreamWorks Animation feature, about the titular kraken who decides to embrace her legacy, could only muster a weak $5.5 million opening.  This is the worst all-time opening of any DWA film ever, worse than the unwanted sequel Spirit Untamed two years ago, worse than the notorious bomb Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas opened to in 2003.  This is worse than what Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank opened to last summer.  Paws finished under $20 million, and unless word-of-mouth and strong weekday grosses kick in, poor Ruby will likely drown with about the same amount.

Almost beating Ruby, despite having been out since Memorial Day, the summer's other main aquatic adventure, The Little Mermaid, swam away with $5.4 million, for a total of $281.2 million.  This still seems likely to hit $300 million, but just barely.  The season's most notorious bomb, The Flash, continues to race down the chart, running off with $5.2 million to bring its total to $99.5 million.  By the time you read this, it will be above $100 million, but did anyone think it would take over three weekends to get there?

Showing that there might be only a limited audience for Wes Anderson films, even ones with all-star casts (which pretty much means all of them), Asteroid City, co-starring Five Straight Decades member Tom Hanks, cratered over 50% in its second wide weekend, bringing in $4.3 million for a total of $18.6 million.  At this point, its looking more likely to finish closer to $25 million rather than $30 million.

Rounding out the Top 10, current summer leader Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 earned another $2 million for a total of $355.1 million.

Indy is the favorite to repeat at #1 this weekend, but there are three new wide releases, two of which could pull the upset.  The most likely title to keep up with the Jones is Insidious: The Red Door, the fifth entry in the durable horror franchise, which brings back the entire original family of Patrick Wilson (who also directs), Rose Byrne, Ty Simpkins, and Andrew Astor.  The success of Boogeyman reminds that there's an appetite for summer horror, and a name-brand entry like Insidious could conjure up some surprising grosses.  Meanwhile, also trying to drive to the top is Joy Ride, which will be gunning directly for No Hard Feeling's audience.  Four friends, including recent Oscar nominee Stephane Hsu, travel through Asia in search of one of their birth mothers.  This one is getting considerably better reviews than Feelings, which could help it overcome the lack of star power.  Also opening, and in fact already out, is Sound of Freedom, a drama about a former CIA agent whose mission is to rescue kids from human traffickers.  Jim Caviezal and Mira Sorvino star in the film, based on a true story, that is gunning for the Christian crowd and has received surprisingly strong reviews.  It isn't going to hit #1, but it could be a summer sleeper.  Will Insidious open the door to the top?  Will Joy Ride find the scenic route?  Or will audiences still decide to dial into Indy?  We'll find out next week.

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