As strikes paralyze Tinseltown, Mission: Impossible-Dead Reckoning, Part One becomes the latest big summer movie to open below expectations.
This wasn't a great week for Hollywood, as SAG-AFTRA joined WGA in walking off the job, bringing most of the remaining film and TV production to a halt. Meanwhile, a summer movie season that looked incredibly promising on paper has devolved into what can only be described as the Summer of Meh. There's only been a couple of out-and-out disasters in The Flash and Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, but outside of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, pretty much everything else has, to some extent underperformed.
The latest title to underwhelm is Mission: Impossible-Dead Reckoning Part One, which some pundits had pegged at opening at $100 million+ over its first five days after last Wednesday's opening. Instead, the film brought in $54.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $78.5 million since it opened. That's not a bad haul, and the Friday to Sunday numbers are fairly consistent with the last two entries in the franchise, neither of which had a Wednesday opening to dilute the weekend grosses. Plus, the Mission: Impossible movies usually make nearly four times opening, meaning that this one should end up in the $200 million range, and has a strong chance of being the franchise's top film (Mission: Impossible-Fallout topped out at $220.2 million). Still, in a summer that has so far only produced two $100 million openers (compared to five by this point last year), yet another tentpole title falling short is discouraging.
As disappointing as the tentpoles have been, this has been a really brutal summer for the smaller films, as titles like Book Club: The Next Chapter, The Machine, About My Father, and The Blackening came and went without leaving much of an impact. However, a small film that had sat on the shelf for five years before being released by a start-up studio is well on its way to being the summer's most unexpected blockbuster. Sound of Freedom defied expectations, actually jumping nearly 40% from its impressive opening last weekend, to $27.3 million, and has produced a 13-day total of $85.8 million. That said, the film's numbers probably don't match its actual attendance, as tiny Angel Studios has convinced people to buy up whole blocks of tickets to distribute to their family and friends and co-workers (the latest: UFC president Dana White, who bought tickets for everyone who works for him). As grosses represent tickets sold, not butts actually in seats, its certainly possible that the film has been screening in front of technically sold out, but largely empty auditoriums. Still, even if this might end up as one of the least-attended $100 million films in history, there are a lot of people who are actually buying tickets and seeing the film, far more than I think anyone would have imagined (especially Disney, which inherited the film after they bought Fox, and clearly had no idea what to do with it). We'll see if the hype dies down after this weekend, but this could possibly be heading toward $150 million.
Last week's champ, Insidious: The Red Door, had a typical horror movie slide, falling 60% to $13 million. Its ten-day total stands at $58.1 million. It seems likely to miss $100 million, but has a shot at passing the franchise's highest-grosser, Insidious: Chapter 2, which has a final gross of $83.6 million.
Hopes that Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny would stabilize in its third weekend melted away like so many foolish Nazis, as the fifth and final entry in the 42-year-old series took in only $12.3 million. The total gross is $145.6 million. It should be able to pull in the $34 million needed to surpass Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (which, of course, earned its money in 1984, when $180 million was enough to make it the third-highest-grossing film of the year), but will likely be looking up at Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, which finished just shy of $200 million in 1989 (enough to make it that year's second-highest-grossing movie).
The summer's leggiest movie, Elemental, continued its red-hot run, earning another $9.1 million to bring its gross to $125.7 million. That's enough for it to move past Lightyear and The Good Dinosaur. With another few weeks of strong weekday grosses, it might be able to pass Cars 3 and maybe even A Bug's Life. It is also now the highest-grossing pandemic-era Disney animated title, though considering the film is looking up at The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and Sing 2, that's not exactly fantastic news.
Speaking of Spider-Verse, the summer's top movie swung across another $6.1 million, bringing its total to $368.8 million. Transformers: Rise of the Beast took in $3.4 million, for a total of $152.8 million. No Hard Feelings picked up another $3.3 million, for a total of $46.6 million.
Hopes that another raunchy R-rated comedy could do well in the wake of Hard Feeling's mild success officially ended after Joy Ride drove off a cliff in its second weekend. The film could only manage $2.7 million for a ten-day total of $10.7 million, and will likely be ending up around $15 million.
Rounding out the Top 10, The Little Mermaid swam a bit closer to the $300 million mark, earning $2.4 million for a total of $294 million.
One thing this summer--indeed the entire release calendar since theaters starting coming back after Covid--has been light on is two major blockbusters opening directly against each other. The summer's one major example so far, the June 16 showdown between The Flash and Elemental, was of course a big dud. This weekend promises to be anything but. In this corner sits Barbie, Greta Gerwig's long-anticipated comedy featuring Margot Robie as the beloved titular doll come to life, and Ryan Gosling as Ken. Reviews so far have been largely glowing, and this one will likely be an easy #1, maybe with an opening above $100 million. In the other corner is Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan's epic biopic about Robert Oppenheimer, the physicist who led the Manhattan Project, which developed the world's first atomic bomb. Cillian Murphy, who has been somewhat MIA in big movie roles for the past several years, plays the title character, with ample support from the likes of Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, Robert Downey, Jr. and Florence Pugh. It's 3 hours and rated R, which will likely limit its box office take, but it could open above $50 million. And let's not forget that Mission: Impossible-Dead Reckoning is still around, also going for that #2 slot. Also, could Sound of Freedom surprise with another monster weekend? We'll find out next week.
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