Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Box Office Discussion: Second "Verse"


 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse returns to the top spot, while No Hard Feelings has a stronger-than expected debut and Asteroid City has a solid expansion.

Most weekends, the #1 Movie in America is either a brand-new release or the previous weekend's #1 Movie in America.  While it's not rare, it is somewhat unusual for a film to rise back to the top spot after relinquishing it.  On a rather slow June weekend (arguably the slowest in over two decades not directly affected by the pandemic), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was able to pull that feat off, rising back to the top spot in its fourth weekend.

Spidey is the summer's breakout hit and, at this point, stands a strong chance of being the #1 movie of the summer.  After spending the last two weeks looking up at pretenders like Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and The Flash, Verse re-claimed #1 with $19 million in its web this weekend.  That's a nice haul for a fourth weekend, but it also marks the smallest amount a #1 movie has earned during a June weekend since 2002 (not counting 2020 and 2021).  On the bright side, instead of one film dominating, this weekend did see the wealth spread around a bit.  At any rate, Spidey is now up to $316.8 million, and could still potentially make it to $380 million, which would double the grosses of predecessor Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.

After essentially being left for dead last weekend, Elemental pulled it together, combining strong weekday grosses with a surprisingly small drop, staying at #2 for the second straight week with $18.4 million.  The Pixar romcom has a ten-day total of $65.5 million.  That's both ahead of where Encanto was at the end of its second week (even with a two-day head start because it opened the day before Thanksgiving) and more than that film took in in its second weekend.  Encanto finished with $96.1 million, and it's like that Elemental will continue to have strong weekday grosses and likely won't have its theatrical release undercut by a premature Disney+ release, so at this point, it looks highly likely to hit $100 million, something that was in doubt last weekend.  This is still likely to go down as a disappointment, but it won't be a full-blown disaster.

Nope, the full-blown disaster of the summer is looking likely to be The Flash, which plunged 73% in its second weekend to $15.1 million.  The Ezra Miller superhero flick, representing one of the last gasps of the old DCU, only has a ten-day gross of $87.5 million, or nearly $25 million behind what DCU-killing flop Black Adam had at the end of its second weekend in October.  At this point, you have to go back to at least the first Shazam! and maybe even Aquaman to find a DCU title that didn't underperform.  This doesn't bode well for the last two films in the current franchise before the next reboot, August's Blue Beetle and December's Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.

Opening better than expected in fourth is No Hard Feelings, the raunchy comedy starring Jennifer Lawrence as a young woman hired to seduce a shy college freshman.  Despite fears the film could open below $10 million, it made a respectable $15 million, which marks the best opening for a non-violent R-rated comedy since Jackass Forever in February 2022 (yes, I realize that Jackass Forever is plenty violent, but it's slapstick violence that everyone at least limps away from, as opposed to action comedies or horror comedies that leave much of its cast dead).  Other R-rated films that have opened recently in this neighborhood, like Air, Violent Night, and House of Gucci, finished around $50 million, which would be a solid final number for this one.

In fifth, Transformers: Rise of the Beast earned another $11.8 million to bring its total to $123.1 million.  It should pass Bumblebee and Transformers: The Last Knight in the next week or so, an amount enough to justify the film's existence but not really to justify continuing the franchise (though the franchise will likely be continued).

Jumping from 10th to 6th is Wes Anderson's latest quirkfest, Asteroid City, which went wide with a very nice $9.1 million.  This is the best weekend for one of Anderson's films ever.  Its ten-day total stands at $10.3 million, and looks to be heading to at least $30 million.

The Little Mermaid continues to fall behind Aladdin, as it swam away with $8.6 million for a total of $270.1 million.  It has a shot at hitting $300 million before its done, but will need to keep having decent legs (or fins).  Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 continues to reign as the summer's top movie, at least until Spider-Man passes it in the upcoming weeks, but it is heading toward the door.  It collected another $3.5 million for a total of $351.1 million.

With an OK hold for a comedy and a fantastic hold for a horror movie (about 50%), The Blackening scared up $3.1 million for a ten-day total of $12.3 million.  This probably needed better reviews to really break out, as it will likely finish short of $20 million.

Rounding out the Top 10, horror non-comedy The Boogeyman dragged another $2.6 million under the bed for a total of $37.7 million.  It should finish between $40 and $45 million.

Most likely heading to #1 this weekend will be Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the fifth overall Indiana Jones film and the first since 2008's very disappointing Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.  This will almost certainly be the final time that Harrison Ford picks up the whip, and he's bringing along franchise vets Karen Allen and John Rhys-Davis, along with newcomers Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Antonio Banderas, and Mads Mikkelsen.  Not returning is Steven Spielberg, at least as director (he's producing, along with George Lucas), as he's handed off the helming duties to James Mangold.  Crystal Skull opened to $100 million over Memorial Day weekend 2008, but it seems unlikely that Destiny will be able to match that, though if it gets anywhere close, it will be considered a major success.  Also arriving is the animated Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, about a teenage girl who is secretly a kraken, who has to protect her human school from an evil mermaid (take that, Disney!).  Look for this to compete with the other two animated titles out for second.  Will Dial fulfill its Destiny this weekend?  We'll find out next week.

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