Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Box Office Discussion: "Rise" Up


 There's life in the Transformers franchise as Rise of the Beasts edges out Spider-Verse.

The Transformers toy line had been incredibly popular in the 80s, leading to a hit animated TV show and a theatrical movie, featuring the voice of Orson Welles, in 1986.  While the toy line remained in production, and new Transformers TV shows would pop up every few years, by the mid-aughts the franchise was nowhere near as popular as it had been 20 years earlier.  That's why the idea of a live-action Transformers movie, announced around 2004, seemed like a ridiculous idea.  When 2007's Transformers grossed almost $320 domestic that summer, though, no one was laughing.  Follow-ups Revenge of the Fallen and Dark of the Moon were also smashes, but the franchise was clearly running out of steam by 2014's Age of Extinction, before crashing and burning entirely was 2017's The Last Knight.  2018's Bumblebee, set in the 80s and costing a fraction of what the other movies had cost, seemed to put a coda on the franchise.

But in this day and age, you can't keep an IP down.  So, 4 1/2 years after Bumblebee, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts arrived in theaters.  Boasting a 90s setting and a new star in Anthony Ramos, the film opened better than expected, taking in $61.1 million.  That puts it well ahead of the opening of The Last Knight, which admittedly opened on a Wednesday, but still, Beasts made almost as much in its first three days than Knight did in its first five.  We're a long way from the glory days of the late aughts, but if they can keep the budgets under control, we might just see another few years of Transformers movies.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had a pretty good hold for a superhero movie opening over $100 million, slipping only 54% in its second weekend to $55.5 million (this is the first weekend with two $50 million grossers in almost a year, since Jurassic World: Dominion and Lightyear both passed that total on June 19).  Its ten-day total stands at $225.5 million, already blowing past the entire run of the first Spider-Verse.  $300 million is assured, and $400 million isn't out of the question.  If it can make it that high, the only Spider-Man movies ahead of it will be the first one back in 2002 and No Way Home, which at $814.1 million is uncatchable.  

The Little Mermaid continues to keep pace with Aladdin, though it is beginning to lose a bit of ground.  The latest Disney remake swam to $23.2 million for a total of $229.2 million.  Mermaid will run into the mid-June Pixar buzzsaw a week earlier than Aladdin did, so we'll see if the two film's grosses will remain close to each other.  Mermaid does look to be swimming to over $300 million, though we'll see if it has the legs--er, fins--to make it to $350 million.

After six solid weeks, Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 is beginning to head toward the exit, as it took in $7.2 million for a total of $335.6 million.  That moves it past the gross of the first one, though Volume 2's $389.8 million is almost certainly out of reach.

The Boogeyman held pretty decently for a horror film, dropping 42% to $7.2 million.  The fright flick has a ten-day total of $25 million, and looks to be heading for a final gross in the $40 million range.

Fast X continues to spin out, pulling in only $5.3 million for a total of $138.2 million.  This seems likely to finish around $150 million, which would make it the franchise's lowest domestic grosser since the first three films.  Luckily for Fast XI, it's doing far better overseas.

It's almost Game Over, but The Super Mario Bros. Movie has a few more gold coins to collect first, as it pulls in $2.2 million for a total of $570.3 million.  Honestly, it's hard to imagine any other film this year beating that number (bookmark this page to see if I have to eat my words).

Rounding out the top ten, the dueling comics-with-outrageous-fathers comedies About My Father and The Machine hit 8 and 9 on the chart, and have dueling grosses of $10.8 million and $10.1 million, respectively.  Sundance hit Past Lives was able to sneak into the Top 10 despite playing on only 26 screens, which probably tells you the dire state of movies this summer outside the current Top 7.  It has a total gross of $0.9 million.

This week sees two movies that should open, in some order, at #1 and #2.  Likely racing to the top of the chart is The Flash, which stars the once-promising Ezra Miller, whose personal demons might just cost them their career, no matter how successful the film is.  Of course, what most people are excited about is the return of Michael Keaton to the role of Batman for the first time in three decades.  Too bad they have to have yet another superhero-goes-into-the-multiverse story.  Meanwhile, Disney and Pixar send out Elemental, their first original film to get a full theatrical release since Onward, and the first original to not have its run rudely interrupted by a worldwide pandemic since Coco way back in 2017.  Reviews haven't been great, but if you want to keep seeing Pixar movies in theaters rather than as Disney+ exclusives, people probably better turn out.  Also opening, and likely haunting the middle of the pack is the horror spoof The Blackening.  Will The Flash make one?  Will Elemental set the chart on fire?  Or could Transformers be more than meets the eye once again?  We'll find out next week.

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