Tuesday, May 2, 2023

Box Office Discussion: "Super" Duper

 

Mario has another super weekend, while Evil Dead rises to a strong opening.

(Sorry, another week late.  I'll try to get this week's posted in the next couple of days).

It may seem a cruel thing to do on what is Disney's 100th anniversary, but it is fair to wonder if they are still Hollywood's #1 animation studio.  Certainly, their history and galley of iconic characters will never be topped, but given the studio's recent struggles at the box office, it now seems like they're looking up at Illumination.  After all, box office-wise, the studio's three pandemic-era releases have left Disney's four theatrical films in the dust, especially when you compare the head-to-head performances of Sing 2 vs. Encanto during the 2021 holidays (Sing nearly doubled Encanto's gross) and Minions: The Rise of Gru vs. Lightyear last summer (Minions grossed roughly 3 1/2 times what Lightyear brought in).  Unlike Disney, Illumination doesn't care much for quality or awards, and Disney's films tend to linger on the mind a lot longer (over a year later, all of Sing 2's musical moments have largely been forgotten, while plenty of people can still belt out "We Don't Talk About Bruno").  But if you only consider the business part of show business, Illumination is killing it at the moment.

Illumination's latest, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, continues to collect gold coins at a near-record pace, taking in a stunning $59.9 million in its third weekend.  That's the 7th best of all time, and the best by any movie not currently owned by Disney.  It's $436 million only trails Incredibles II by a little over $4 million at the end of its third weekend, and Mario still seems likely to take the top spot on the domestic animation charts by the end of its run.

It's been a strong year or so for horror, as films as diverse as The Black Phone, Smile, M3GAN, and Scream VI have all exceeded expectations.  Add Evil Dead Rise to that list.  The creepy continuation of Sam Raimi's now-40-year-old horror franchise found an eager audience, opening to $24.5 million.  Like most horror movies, it seems likely to fade fast, but given that this was a relatively cheap production initially planned for debut straight on HBO Max, even a $60 million final will be enormously profitable.

I'm not sure if director Guy Ritchie stuck his name into the title of Guy Ritchie's The Covenant because of an ego trip or because he really doesn't want people to confuse it with the last film with that title, the 2006 homoerotic evil teenage warlocks movie.  Either way, this Afghan war drama, in which Jake Gyllenhaal plays a solder who owes his life to his interpreter and now much figure out how to get him safe passage to the United States, only opened to so-so business, taking in $6.4 million.  We'll see if it can develop some legs in the coming weeks.

John Wick: Chapter 4 is on the verge of passing Chapter 3 to become the franchise's highest grosser.  The action thriller grossed $5.8 million to extend its total to $169 million, just under Chapter 3's final number.  Chapter 4 should be there by the end of next weekend.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves continues to underperform based on its opening and reviews.  The other game-based movie out right now brought in $5.5 million for a total of $82.3 million.  For a film that Paramount had high hopes would start a new franchise, these are numbers that suggest the sequel will never escape the development hell dungeon.

Air is already by far the biggest film released directly by Amazon to theaters, though given that the former #1 was the little seen Emma Thompson dramady Late Night, that shouldn't be a surprise.  As the drama earned another $5.5 million, to bring its haul to $41.8 million, it seems certain it will pass Manchester by the Sea (which starred Air's director-star Ben Affleck's little brother Casey), the highest-grossing film produced by Amazon (though it was released by Roadside Attractions) in the coming weeks.

Last week's twin horror openings both, as expected, suffered significant second weekend drops.  The Pope's Exorcist, which surprised many by opening at #2, fell to $3.4 million for a ten-day total of $15 million.  It will likely wrap up somewhere around $20 million.

The far more expensive Renfield had a slightly better hold, but still could only suck $3.3 million out of moviegoers.  Its ten-day total is $13.8 million, and seems likely to fall short of $20 million.

Another, much more arty horror movie went wide after a successful limited release last weekend.  Beau is Afraid brought in $2.7 million for a ten-day total of $3.5 million.  Between the polarized reviews, the three-hour running time, and the fact the film is just rather strange, don't expect Beau to hang around for too long, though it seems very likely to join director Ari Astor's last two features, Hereditary and Midsommar, as passionately defended cult hits.

Rounding out the Top 10, Suzume passed director Makoto Shinkai's previous film, Weathering With You, to become the highest-grossing non-TV-derived anime title in North America since The Secret World of Arrietty in 2012.  It took in $1.6 million for a ten-day total of $8.4 million.  We'll see if it can do what Weathering and Shinkai's film before that, Your Name, wasn't and get an Oscar nomination for Animated Feature.

Opening outside the Top 10, the musical period piece Chevalier probably would have been better off going out in a limited run, as its wide release could only bring in $1.5 million, good enough for 11th place.  Already out of the Top 10, and under $1 million in just their second weekends of release, are horror film Nefarious, comedy Mafia Momma, and basketball biopic Sweetwater, though in the case of the latter, it didn't make the Top 10 or earn $1 million last weekend.  Ten-day totals are $2.4 million, $3.3 million, and $0.5 million, respectively.

The last weekend of April is generally the weekend before the first big summer movies arrive, unless the weekend sees the release of the first big summer movie (as it did in 2018 and 2019, with Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame).  Usually, that means a slate full of dumps, but while this week's two big wide releases won't be able to challenge Mario for #1, they could find themselves with decent openings which might just power them to solid legs in May.  Despite being one of the most prominent YA authors of all time, Hollywood has largely ignored the oeuvre of Judy Blume, with her work only being adapted into a handful of TV projects and one feature film, 2011's little-seen Tiger Eyes (which was directed by her son).  Now, she finally gets the big (or at least moderate) budget adaption she deserves with Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.  Based on arguably Blume's most famous novel, it retains the book's 1970s setting.  Abby Ryder Fortson, best known for playing Paul Rudd's daughter in the first two Ant-Man movies, plays Margaret, with Rachel McAdams and Kathy Bates as her mother and grandmother, respectively.  Meanwhile, in the somewhat overtitled Big George Foreman: The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World (perhaps the most superfluous subtitle this side of Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire) stars up-and-comer Khris Davis as Foreman, whose career in the 70s was largely overshadowed by Muhammed Ali, but who had a shocking comeback in the 90s, re-winning the world championship in his 40s before signing an extremely lucrative endorsement deal to put his name on a line of countertop grills.  Will either title come within shouting distance of Mario?  We'll find out next week.

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