Thursday, April 13, 2023

Box Office Discussion: "Mario" Party


 The Super Mario Bros. Movie levels up out of the gate, while Air scores a slam dunk.

30 years ago this Memorial Day, the video game movie era kicked off with the release of Super Mario Bros. The live-action action-comedy starred the unlikely paring of Bob Hoskins and John Leguizamo (18 years Hoskins's junior) as the brothers, along with Samantha Mathis as Princess Daisy and Dennis Hopper, chewing all the scenery as a humanoid King Koopa.  Arriving on a wave of hype, reviewers hated it, thinking it was mostly nonsensical chase scenes, and audiences weren't crazy for it either, as the movie, which cost somewhere between $40 and $50 million to make (a huge amount for 1993), opened in fourth, making only $8.9 million over the three-day weekend, less than half of what chart-topper Cliffhanger made.  The film would end its run with only $20.9 million.

Coming full circle, The Super Mario Bros. Movie didn't get much better reviews than the 1993 version did, but it certainly made a lot more money.  The fully-animated feature, starring the voices of Chris Pratt, Charlie Day, Anya Taylor-Joy, and Jack Black, powered up right from the beginning, earning an incredible $146.4 million over Easter weekend, and $204.6 million since its Wednesday opening.  This is the second-best opening weekend for an animated title ever, behind only Incredibles II, which had the advantage of actually opening on a Friday.  It is also one of the best starts ever for a film that isn't already part of a cinematic franchise, with only the remakes of The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast, and the first Hunger Games, making more.  It is likely only a matter of time before Mario passes Minions: The Rise of Gru to become the highest-grossing animated title of the pandemic era, and indeed, seems likely to be one of the highest-grossing animated titles of all time.  It will certainly pass Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania to be the highest-grossing film of 2023 well before this weekend.

As huge as Mario is, it surprisingly did not completely dominate the box office, as three other movies had solid weekends.  John Wick: Chapter 4 continues to shoot up the competition, coming in second for the second weekend in a row, earning $14.5 million.  It is now up to $146.9 million, or only about $25 million behind the final gross of Chapter 3.  It seems likely that John will run out of ammo before hitting $200 million, but this should still be the highest grosser of the franchise by the end of its run.

Opening in 3rd is Air, the Ben Affleck-directed (and starring) drama about Nike's 1984 quest to sign NBA rookie Michael Jordan as a client.  The all-star cast (which includes Matt Damon, Viola Davis, Chris Tucker, and Jason Bateman) and sparkling reviews helped it to a $14.5 million weekend and $20.2 million since its Wednesday opening.  Amazon's highest grossing theatrical film is Manchester by the Sea (starring Ben's brother Casey), which took in $47.7 million during its 2016-2017 Oscar run.  Air looks posed to shatter that number.  With little in the way of direct competition over the next few weeks, this should at least equal the gross of the last adult-aimed drama hit, A Man Called Otto.

Falling from first to fourth, with a tumble considerably steeper than Paramount would like, is the other games-to-potential-franchise-starter movie out, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves.  It took in $13.9 million for a ten-day total of $61.7 million.  If its fall is a byproduct of Mario, and it is able to stabilize in the coming weeks, it should still hit $100 million.  That said, this will probably need a strong overseas run to be the franchise starter that the studio clearly wants.

Scream VI passed the $100 million mark right before the weekend, becoming the fourth film of 2023 to top the century mark, just ahead of Mario the next day.  It took in $3.4 million, to bring its gross to a slashingly good $104 million, enough to pass the original to become the biggest film in franchise history (obligatory reminder that $104 million in 1996 is a lot more than $104 million in 2023).

Biblical drama His Only Son held decently over Easter/Passover weekend, taking in $2.8 million for a ten-day total of $10.6 million, a huge hit as far as tiny distributor Angel Studios is concerned.  Given that this is also the company behind sleeper Christian streaming hit The Chosen, its clear that they are setting themselves up to be major players in that niche market.

In 7th, hit sequel Creed III heads toward streaming with $2.8 million, for a total of $153.2 million.  In 8th, flop sequel Shazam: Fury of the Gods heads toward streaming with $1.6 million, for a total of $56.6 million.

In ninth, the Sundance drama A Thousand and One had a drop more like a bad horror movie, as its ten-day total is $3 million.  Opening in tenth is Paint, a dark comedy starring Owen Wilson as an artist with a PBS show whose life is the opposite of the serine figure he seems on TV.  This got mixed reviews on its way to a disappointing $0.6 million opening.

Super Mario Bros. is almost certain to win the weekend, but it will be reigning over a surprisingly huge pack of newcomers.  Leading the charge, and likely heading for second, is Renfield, a horror-comedy starring Nicholas Hoult as the hapless assistant to Count Dracula (Nicolas Cage, in the role he was born to play).  Tired of his life of servitude, he looks to escape his master with the help of a modern-day New Orleans cop (Awkwafina).  Also opening wide are Mafia Mamma, starring Toni Colette as an ordinary American woman who discovers that her late grandfather was a Mafia don in Italy--and she's inherited his position, Sweetwater, an NBA-backed biopic of the first African-American player in the league, starring newcomer Everett Osborne as Nat "Sweetwater" Clifton, horror biopic (yes, really) The Pope's Exorcist, starring Russell Crowe as the real-life Father Gabriele Amorth, the said exorcist, and Suzume, an anime from the director of Your Name and Weathering With You.  How big will Mario's post-Easter tumble be?  Could Renfield launch big enough to propel it to be the third R-rated $100 million grosser of the year?  Could any of the other newcomers break into the Top 5?  We'll find out next week.

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