Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Box Office Discussion: "Creed" Money


 Creed III scores a box office knockout, while the latest Demon Slayer continued anime's strong run at the North America box office.

(Once again, I'm a week late.  I should be able to post this week's tomorrow or Thursday).

One of the more interesting trends over the last decade or so in ISP-obsessed Hollywood is the revival of dormant franchises that originated in the 1970s, not as reboots, but as full-fledged sequels, tied into the canon of the original films.  Star Wars is probably the most prominent example of this, but we also have the recent run of new Halloween movies, and there have been two Alien prequels since 2012, as well.  Box office-wise, however, the most prominent revival has been the Rocky franchise, which went dormant in 1990, had a one-off revival in 2006, and then had a triumphant comeback in 2015 with Creed, which was followed up in 2018 with Creed II.  

Creed III marks a few changes to the franchise.  It marks the directorial debut of star Michael B. Jordan, and also the first film in the nearly half-century-old series to not feature Sylvester Stallone as Rocky Balboa (he chose to sit out both because he didn't like the dark tone of the script and because of a dispute with the film's producer).  It also is the first film not to open at Thanksgiving, a move that seemed to agree with the movie, as it scored the highest opening of the series, taking in $58.4 million (to be fair, the two prior films opened the day before Thanksgiving, which diluted their opening weekends, but even factoring that first Wednesday and Thursday, Creed III still outgrossed both films).  Depending on how the film holds up, it seems like a solid bet to beat Creed II's $115.7 million final gross, and has a decent shot of topping Rocky IV's $127.9 million to become the franchise's highest overall grosser (with the caveat that $127.9 million in 1985 was enough to make Rocky IV the third-highest grossing film of that year.  Last year's #3 movie, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made $453.8 million).  Stallone might very well be looking to come back for Creed IV.

Jonathan Majors, who plays Jordan's childhood friend-turned-ring-opponent, had a fun weekend, as he becomes the rare actor to appear in both the #1 and #2 films.  Of course, that might be the only good news coming out of Ant-Man: Quantumania, which completely failed to stabilize in its third weekend, plunging 60% further to $12.8 million.  The film's $187.1 million has at least allowed it to pass the first Ant-Man, but while its three-week gross is still higher than the three-week gross of Ant-Man and the Wasp, its box office is well below what that film made in its third weekend.  Quantumania might still be able to top Wasp's $216.7 million, but it's likely to be awfully close.

On the other hand, Cocaine Bear partied hearty in its second weekend, falling only a bit over 50% (a strong hold for a film like this) to $11.1 million.  It's ten-day gross stands at $41.4 million.  The coked-out bruin seems to be heading for a final gross of between $60 and $70 million, a very good total for this film, before undoubtably becoming a cult hit for years to come.

Two years ago, Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train shocked Hollywood by opening to $21.2 million and eventually grossing $49.5 million, still easily the record for a non-Pokémon anime in North America.  Unlike Mugen Train, which was made as a theatrical movie from the get-go, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba-To the Swordsmith Village is actually a completion of several episodes from the series.  That didn't seem to matter to the show's legion of fans, who helped the film gross $10.1 million.  As anime titles are notorious for being ridiculously front-loaded, expect this one to not stick around for long, and probably not even hit $20 million, but pretty much every dollar this film earns is profit.

Holding up a bit better than Cocaine Bear, Jesus Revolution was blessed with $8.5 million, for a ten-day total of $30.4 million.  It looks like it will finish well below director Jon Erwin's I Can Only Imagine from five years ago, but it has already outgrossed American Underdog, his attempt to go relatively mainstream.

After nearly three months in theater, Avatar: The Way of Water finally falls out of the Top 5, landing in sixth with $3.7 million.  Its gross is now up to $670.7 million, and is likely to finish somewhat short of $700 million.

With a title like Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, the spy comedy starring Jason Statham clearly was aiming to launch a franchise.  However, by launching this one to only $3.1 million, this fortune seems to have already been squandered.

Rounding out the Top 10, long-running animated comedy Puss in Boots: The Last Wish took in another $2.7 million, for a total of $177.2 million.  Magic Mike's Last Dance waltzed away with $1.1 million, for a gross of $25.3 million.  80 for Brady finished below $1 million, and has a total of $38.4 million.

Ahead of the Oscars this coming weekend, nominees Everything Everywhere All At Once, Women Talking, The Quiet Girl, The Fabelmans, Tár, The Banshees Of Inisherin, Triangle of Sadness, and Eo all saw surges from the previous weekend.  In addition, RRR returned to theaters on a limited basis.

This weekend will have three new arrivals, all hoping to knock out Creed.  The most likely suspect to take the title is Scream VI, as the survivors of last year's successful revival (minus Neve Campbell, who elected to depart the series) head to New York, only to be stalked by yet another psycho in yet another Ghostface costume.  Courtney Cox (the only remaining original cast member) and Jenna Ortega (whose star has risen dramatically since the release of the last movie, thanks to Wednesday becoming a megahit) star.  Also in the mix are 65, which stars Adam Driver as an astronaut who lands on a primitive planet filled with dinosaurs.  Spoiler alert--the planet is Earth, and he crashed landed 65 million years ago (all of this is revealed by the film's marketing).  Meanwhile, Champions, which appeals to the crowd that turned A Man Called Otto into a hit, has Woody Harrelson as an arrogant basketball coach who is court-ordered to lead a team of developmentally disabled players.  You can probably already predict every story beat.  This one is mainly notable for being the first film that Bobby Farrelly is directing solo without his brother, Peter (the two directed Harrelson in Kingpin in 1996).  Will Scream slash its way to the top?  Will 65 be the 1?  Could Champions be champions?  Or will Creed retain the heavyweight title?  We'll find out next week.

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