Thursday, March 30, 2023

Box Office Discussion: Big Bad "John"


 John Wick: Chapter 4 continues the franchise tradition of each movie being bigger than the last.

Box office-wise, I'm pretty sure there are no other franchises like John Wick.  It isn't the only franchise to see significant leveling up between the first and second installments.  The Terminator, Austin Powers, and Pitch Perfect come to mind.  But none of them leveled up again with the third part.  John Wick more than doubled its grosses from the first to the second movie and nearly doubled again with the third.  It was highly unlikely it would be able to maintain that pace, but I'm pretty sure no one at Lionsgate is all that disappointed.

John Wick: Chapter 4 outdid Chapter 3 by opening at $73.8 million, a good $16 million more than the last one.  And that installment opened in May and knocked Avengers: Endgame out of the top spot.  The first three films held remarkably steady in making about 33% of their final grosses over opening weekend, so assuming that Chapter 4 has similar legs, that suggests a final gross of around $220 million, which might be enough to edge out Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania for the top spot of 2022.

Finishing a distant second was the flop Shazam! Fury of the Gods, which descended straight to the underworld with a $9.3 million weekend.  That's off a whopping 70% from last week's dismal opening, which brings the film to a ten-day total of only $46 million, which is only about $6 million off the first one's opening weekend.  At this rate, Shazam will likely peter out at around $65-$70 million, a dismal final number and one that certainly doesn't do much to rachet up anticipation for The Flash, whose trailer really makes it look like The Flash in the Multiverse of No Way Home.

By contrast, Scream VI continues to do decent business, taking in another $8.3 million for a total of $89.8 million.  It should be safely over $100 million before Easter.

Creed III certainly couldn't celebrate becoming the highest grosser of the Rocky franchise after the arrest of co-star Jonathan Majors, but the drama still scored a knockout, taking in $8.2 million for a total of $140.7 million.  This should finish well north of $150 million, and could approach $175 million.

65 continues to fade, bringing in another $3.2 million for a total of $27.8 million.  The other wide release saddled with Jonathan Majors, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, brought in $2.4 million for a total of $209.9 million.

For two movies with almost nothing in common besides their release date, Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution sure like to stick together, as this is the third of the five weeks the films have been out that they've been back-to-back on the chart.  Bear took in $2.1 million to bring its total to $62.1 million, while Jesus made $2 million for a total of $49 million.

Rounding out the Top Ten, Champions is finishing up a disappointing run by bringing in $1.5 million for a total of $13.5 million.  In possibly its final week on the chart, Avatar: The Way of Water earned $1.4 million to bring its haul to $680.4 million.

The week's one big opening is Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves.  In this presumed franchise-starter, Chris Pine plays a thief who has to put together a team of rogues (including Michelle Rodriguez, Regé-Jean Page, Justice Smith, and Sophia Lillis) in order to take on Pine's former partner-turned-evil warlord (Hugh Grant).  This one is getting glowing reviews, and its Guardians of the Galaxy vibe should help it be competitive with John Wick for the top spot.  At the very least, it will likely ensure that the woebegone 2000 version of Dungeons and Dragons will be completely forgotten.  Also opening, ahead of Easter and Passover next weekend, is His Only Son, an adaption of the Biblical story of Abraham and the request by God that he sacrifice his only son, Isaac.  Expect a small audience of the faithful, though it likely won't have anywhere near the gross of Jesus Revolution.  Will John Wick once again slaughter the competition?  Or will Dungeons and Dragons fly into the top spot?  We'll find out next week.

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