Box Office Discussion: "Ant" Squished

 Ant-Man has a massive tumble, while both Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution have solid openings.

(Yes, this should have been posted a week ago.  Oops.  This week's discussion should be posted in the next day or two).

In the pandemic era, Marvel movies have increasingly become one-weekend wonders.  A massive opening, followed by a large drop.  Only Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings was able to escape that fate, falling an OK 54% in weekend #2.  Every other MCU movie, however,  tumbled at least 60% in its second weekend.  If you have a massive opening, like Spider-Man: No Way Home or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, you can survive a big fall.  When you're Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, you probably can't, especially when your plunge is nearly 70%

The third entry in the Ant-Man saga managed to stay at #1, despite falling to $32 million in its second weekend.  This brings its ten-day total to $167.1 million.  That's still well ahead of the ten-day grosses of the first two films in the series, but it is less than $3 million over the second weekend of Ant-Man and the Wasp.  Quantumania is still likely to become the highest grosser of the franchise, but if it doesn't stabilize quickly, it won't finish too far above Wasp's final.

Lumbering on the scene with a stronger-than-expected opening, Cocaine Bear snorted up $23.3 million.  The horror-comedy currently has 2023's third-best opening, behind only Quantumania and M3GAN.  Word of mouth will determine the ultimate fate of this one, which could conceivably finish anywhere between $45 million and $80 million.

Also opening strongly, Jesus Revolution was blessed with $15.9 million.  This compares very favorably with I Can Only Imagine, from the same production team, from five years ago, which opened to $17.1 million.  Imagine would ultimately gross nearly $85 million domestic.  While I don't expect miracles to happen twice, this could easily make it to $60-$70 million, especially if is able to stay relatively strong until Easter a month and a half from now.

Avatar: The Way of Water continues to swim toward $700 million, though its pace has slackened off quickly lately.  The sci-fi epic took in $4.9 million for a total of $665.5 million.  With Top Gun: Maverick having almost caught completely up at the same point in its run, the odds of Avatar eventually overtaking it are now very slim indeed, but this is still an extremely impressive total.

Also impressive is the gross of Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, which took in another $4.1 million for a total of $173.4 million.  It seems like its heading for a final gross of around $190 million, though $200 million is not out of the question.

Magic Mike's Last Dance is proving to be less enticing as its solid opening weekend indicated, as the film was able to only waltz away with $2.9 million.  Its total stands at $23.1 million.  80 for Brady is proving to be somewhere between a field goal and a touchdown, as the comedy brought in $1.9 million for a total of $36.5 million.

Knock at the Cabin is getting knocked out, as it took in $1.9 million for a total of $33.9 million.  Missing rounded up $1 million for a total of $31.4 million.  Finishing below $1 million, A Man Called Otto brings its gross to $62.3 million.

This week's big opening, likely taking the top spot from Ant-Man, is Creed III.  Taking a page from Sylvester Stallone's playbook, Michael B. Jordan makes his directorial debut, as he takes on a childhood friend played by the suddenly ubiquitous Jonathan Majors (also in Quantumania).  The first two Creeds were both Thanksgiving releases, so we'll see how what is essentially Rocky IX (though, this time, without Rocky, as Stallone sat this one out) fares in March.  Also opening is the spy comedy Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, as a secret agent team (Jason Statham, Aubrey Plaza, Cary Elwes, and Josh Hartnett) try to take down an evil arms dealer (Hugh Grant).  The title suggests that the producers (including its director, Guy Ritchie) are thinking franchise, but as this has been lightly promoted, its gong to have to have incredible word of mouth for that to happen.  Two foreign titles also open, in the hopes of making the Top 10.  Two years ago, Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train proved far more popular than expected, eventually grossing nearly $50 million, still a record for a non-Pokemon anime movie in North America.  This week brings another Demon Slayer movie, the awkwardly titled Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Swordsmith Village.  Meanwhile, celebrated (and Oscar-nominated) Bollywood movie RRR returns to theaters in the form of RRR Fan CelebRRRation.  Will Creed score a knockout?  Or could Ant-Man once again go big by going small?  We'll find out next week.