Wednesday, February 1, 2023

Box Office Discussion: "Water" Fall?

 


Avatar spends it's seventh--and possibly final--week at #1

Since 2010, no movie has managed to spend seven weeks at #1.  Only one movie has managed to spend six weeks on top, Spider-Man: No Way Home, which largely won most of those weekends by default as January 2022 was largely a cinematic wasteland.  By comparison, January 2023 has thrived, with movies like M3GAN, Plane, A Man Called Otto, Missing, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, all doing good-to-great business.  That makes the achievement of Avatar: The Way of Water, all the more impressive, as it became the first film since the first Avatar to put together a seven-week run at the top.

The epic sci-fi fantasy brought in $16 million, enough to be the 6th best 7th weekend ever, bringing its total to $620.9 million.  It is now within $100 million of Top Gun: Maverick, and is knocking on the door of the all-time domestic Top Ten, being less than $3 million behind The Avengers.  All in all, it's been an incredible run for James Cameron's blockbuster, his third consecutive movie to hit $600 million domestic. Only the Russo Brothers, who directed Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame, have even two movies that have topped $600 million.  This will, however, probably be its final weekend on top, as the February blockbusters begin to arrive next weekend.

The box office performance of Puss in Boots: The Last Wish has been a surprising reflection of The Way of Water in many ways.  Like Water, it's a sequel coming out more than a decade after the previous entry, like Water, it had a disappointing opening, and like Water, it has played and played and played all through January.  The film has already earned more than ten times its opening weekend.  To be fair, that was somewhat hampered by its opening Saturday being Christmas Eve and its opening on Wednesday.  But even counting its entire first five days as its opening, it has still seen 87% of its grosses come after that weekend, an unheard number this day and age.  And the film isn't even done yet.  It made another $10.5 million for a total of $140.7 million.  Could this have the legs to get all the way to $200 million?  Probably not, but it could get a lot closer than anyone would have imagined after that opening.

Finishing a surprisingly high 3rd is the Indian action movie Pathaan, which had the second-best per-screen in the Top 10, racking up $6.9 million on just roughly 700 screens.  Since its Wednesday opening, it has earned $9.5 million, one of the best openings ever in North American for a movie from the Indian subcontinent.  By comparison, last year's Indian sensation (and freshly minted Oscar nominee for Song) RRR opened to $9.5 million on almost twice as many screens.  Indian movies tend to have a short self life, but with very strong reviews, this one might have a chance to buck that trend.

A Man Called Otto continues to do good business, taking in $6.7 million for a total of $46 million.  It looks good to hit $60 million.  M3GAN brought in $6.3 million, for a total of $82.2 million.  It has faded faster than expected, but it should finish at least near $100 million, and could still top it.

Missing had a decent hold for its second weekend, taking in $5.7 million for a ten-day total of $17.7 million.  It should be on track to finish around $30 million.  

Plane was able to stabilize its grosses, coming up with $3.8 million for a total of $25.4 million.  It should easily clear $30 million and has an outside shot at $40 million.

Despite largely playing limited screenings, the Christian drama Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist was able to open to $2.6 million.  The film is officially a follow-up to the largely forgotten 2014 reboot which starred Nicolas Cage.  This one replaces the entire cast, with Kevin Sorbo, who also directed, playing Cage's role as a pastor, a reporter, and an airline pilot try to expose Satan's plot in the days after the Rapture.  This one may have been a one-weekend wonder, as the producers probably want to get this onto home media as quickly as possible, the better to help spread the Word.

In ninth is the horror thriller Infinity Pool, in which a vacationing Alexander Skarsgård discovers that if you're rich enough, you can simply have yourself cloned and allow said clone to serve out your sentence.  The thriller, from David Croenberg's son Brandon, got good reviews but might have been just a little too weird to attract mainstream audiences, as it only opened to $2.5 million.  Expect this one to become a huge cult hit, though.

Opening in tenth is the Chinese sci-fi thriller Wandering Earth II, a sequel to the 2019 blockbuster that made $700 million worldwide (even if only $6 million of that was made in the US).  Fans of the first one turned out, as it opened to $1.4 million on just 142 screens, for the Top Ten's best per-screen.

This weekend had one of the deepest benches in a while, as 14 movies managed to top $1 million, the most since Labor Day weekend.  Billie Eilish Live at the O2 streamed to fans in theaters nationwide, as the concert took in $1.3 million.  The generically titled horror thriller Fear didn't exactly scare too many moviegoers, as it only took in $1.3 million.  In the wake of earning 11 Oscar nominations, spring smash Everything Everywhere All At Once returned to theaters and took in $1 million, pretty good for a movie that's been out for nearly a year and has been available to view at home for months.  Its total is now up to $71 million.  Also earning just over $1 million was another Oscar nominee, The Whale, which is up to $14.9 million.

Also seeing its grosses rise in the wake of getting nominated were Women Talking, The Fabelmans, Living, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, and Triangle of Sadness.

The first weekend of February looks to be a pretty big weekend, led by two movies that have a solid chance of knocking Avatar down to 3rd.  Knock at the Cabin is the latest thriller from M. Night Shyamalan, in which a couple (Jonathan Gross and Ben Aldridge), vacationing at an isolated cabin with their young daughter, are suddenly confronted by a group of intruders, including Dave Bautista and Rupert Grint, who demand that they make an unbearable choice in order to prevent the Apocalypse.  Meanwhile, 80 for Brady sees for ardent elderly Tom Brady fans (Jane Fonda, Lily Tomlin, Sally Field, and Rita Moreno) decide to go to Houston to see Brady and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI, despite the small issue of them not having tickets.  Also possibly making an impact on the box office will be the concert film BTS: Yet to Come, a new family-friendly animated film, The Amazing Maurice, the elaborately-titled anime Sword Art Online the Movie-Progressive-Scherzo of Deep Night, the Indian action movie Michael, and the season finale of the hit Christian drama series The Chosen.  Will we see a wholescale shakeup of the Top Ten?  Will Knock at the Cabin and/or 80 for Brady finally take down Avatar?  Or will Water rise once again to the top?  We'll find out next week.

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