Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Box Office Discussion: "Quantum" Leap


Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania gets off to a great start for an Ant-Man movie and a so-so start for an MCU movie.

Of all the sub-franchises rattling around inside of the MCU, Ant-Man has always been one of the less successful ones.  The first Ant-Man, in 2015, was the last pre-pandemic MCU title to fail to break $200 million domestic.  Three years later, Ant-Man and the Wasp's final gross was unable to match the opening weekend of Avengers: Infinity War two months prior.  The latest one, the rather clunkily-titled Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, had easily the biggest opening of the trio, taking in $106.1 million over the Friday-Sunday portion of the President's Day weekend.  However, that still was well below the openings of the last four MCU titles.

Opening above the century mark in February is a solid achievement, as only two other films, both Marvel movies (Black Panther and Deadpool) have done so.  Still, given the hype, with this being the cinematic debut of Jonathan Majors as the MCU's newest overarching villain, Kang, and the fact it is a holiday weekend, one wonders if this should have done even better.  Given the relatively poor reviews and word-of-mouth, this one might do a fast fade.

Finishing over a hundred million behind, long-running smash Avatar: The Way of Water was able to claim second, even though it had opened before Christmas.  It seems likely that a film hasn't been this high on the chart in its 10th weekend of wide release since Titanic (even the first Avatar was in 3rd at this point in its run).  Water saw another $6.6 million flow into its grosses, though its chances of catching Top Gun: Maverick for the top spot of 2022 continues to grow more narrow.  Avatar's lead over Maverick at this point in its run is down to just a bit over $7 million.

Despite doubling its screen count, last week's surprise champ Magic Mike's Last Dance slipped to third, falling to $5.4 million.  Its ten-day total stands at $18 million.  As it looks likely to top out around $30 million, this will be easily the franchise's lowest grosser, but given that it wasn't even planned to be a theatrical release, any amount of money is basically gravy.

Avatar isn't the only Christmas title still knocking around the Top 5, as Puss in Boots: The Last Wish just keeps getting its wishes answered.  The animated hit took in another $5.3 million for a gross of $166.2 million, which officially pushes it past Sing 2 to be the second-highest-grossing animated title of the pandemic era.  This seems likely to top out north of $180 million, though if weekly grosses stay relatively steady, it still has an outside shot at $200 million.  After all, there's still six more weeks until The Super Mario Bros. Movie arrives.

After a sharp fall last weekend, Knock at the Cabin steadied itself, earning $4 million for a total of $30.5 million.  Falling more steeply than anticipated, 80 for Brady took in $3.8 million for a total of $32.4 million.  Both these titles seem to be heading for final grosses between $40 and $50 million.

With Valentine's Day in the past, the 25th anniversary re-release of the aforementioned Titanic sank, falling nearly two-thirds to $2.4 million.  James Cameron's epic tragedy, at one point both the most expensive movie ever and the highest grossing film ever, has a re-release 10-day total of $12.5 million and a lifetime gross of $671.9 million.  Even with the re-release, it seems unlikely to be able to hold off Avatar: The Way of Water on the all-time chart, as James Cameron's latest epic will likely pass the ship in the next month or so.

After making a series of increasingly generic-looking action titles, Liam Neeson decided to try something different, playing a legendary detective in a period piece with a solid supporting cast and an acclaimed director calling the shots.  Alas, Marlowe opened to largely negative reviews and indifferent box office, as the thriller could only manage $1.8 million.  It took in $2.6 million since its Wednesday opening.  This one might not even be able to match the grosses of his already-forgotten duo of Blacklight and Memory from last year.

Rounding out the Top 10, Missing took in $1.7 million for a total gross of $29.7 million, while A Man Called Otto made $1.6 million for a total of $60.6 million.

Ant-Man seems likely to win the weekend, but there are two new titles, both based on true stories, that could possibly pose a challenge.  Cocaine Bear is pretty much what is says the tin, as a black bear ingests a brick of cocaine thrown from a smuggler's plane and promptly gets extremely high and extremely homicidal, to the regret of the drug dealers, as well as local hikers, law enforcement, and EMTs.  Among the people running for their lives from the coked-out bruin are Margo Martindale, Isiah Whitlock, Jr.,  Jesse Tyler Ferguson, O'Shea Jackson, Jr., Alden Ehrenreich, real-life married couple Keri Russell and Matthew Rhys, and, in one of his last film roles, Ray Liotta.  Slightly more grounded is Jesus Revolution, which is also pretty much what is says on the tin, as a group of hippies in the early 1970s join forces with an open-minded pastor (once and future Frasier Kelsey Grammer, by far the most recognizable name in this) to launch the titular movement.  This one is directed by Jon Erwin, who with his brother, Andrew, directed crossover success I Can Only Imagine 5 years ago (Andrew, for whatever reason, is only producing this one).  Also opening, hoping to find a spot on the lower half of the chart, is animated title Mummies and Bollywood flick Selfiee.  Will Ant-Man shrink its competition?  Could Cocaine Bear get high enough to take the top spot?  Will Jesus spark a box office Revolution?  We'll find out next week.

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