Wednesday, January 18, 2023

Box Office Discussion: Rising "Water"


 Avatar: The Way of Water continues to dominate, while A Man Called Otto has a solid expansion.

Martin Luther King Jr. Weekend proved to be another solidly lucrative weekend at the box office, as the early returns suggest that 2023 will be a much better year than 2022 was.  Leading the charge once again is Avatar: The Way of Water, which took the top slot for the fifth straight weekend, earning $32.8 million through Sunday and $39.9 million through Monday.  That gives the film $571.7 million through the long weekend, as it barrels ever closer to Top Gun: Maverick.  Not counting American Sniper, whose fifth weekend was only its second wide one, Water scored the 2nd-best 5th weekend of all time, behind only the original Avatar (#3 is Titanic, giving James Cameron a trifecta).  Maverick's 5th weekend was $29.6 million, so there's not much separating the two films' totals, but if Top Gun has any hope of holding onto the #1 spot for 2022, it's going to need Avatar to start declining rapidly, and there is yet to be any sign that's about to happen.

While Avatar is fighting to become the top movie of 2022, the current top movie of 2023, M3GAN, had a strong second weekend.  It declined only 40%, an excellent hold for a horror movie, as it grossed $18.3 million through Sunday.  Monday's gross brings its four-day total to $21.7 million, and it has an 11-day total of $60.2 million.  It should be safely across the $100 million mark by the Super Bowl, and seems like a good bet to reign as the year's highest grosser until at least until the opening weekend of Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.

Crossing the $100 million mark, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was able to do something relatively rare for a film these days--see its box office rise from the previous weekend, despite not expanding (indeed, the film actually lost theaters).  The animated family film brought in $14.5 million through Sunday and $18.9 million through Monday, ending the long weekend with $111.9 million.  It becomes the 18th, and likely final, 2022 film to hit the century mark.

There's an outside chance that A Man Called Otto could be #19, but its wide release, while quite good,  isn't really big enough to hit that mark without having extraordinary legs.  The Tom Hanks dramady took in $12.8 million through Sunday and $15.4 million through Monday, for a total so far of $21.6 million.  This does seem to be a good bet to have some solid legs through February and perhaps into March, but a final of around $60 million would be a good total for the film, though it does have the potential to go higher than that.

In fifth, Plane, perhaps the most January movie ever made, had a decent debut, landing with $10.3 million through Sunday and $11.8 million through Monday.  With good word of mouth, this should get to $30 million, and excellent word of mouth might get it to $40 million.

Well back in sixth, the remake of House Party, which seemed destined for streaming, but got rerouted to theaters, had a mediocre opening, taking in $4 million though Sunday and $4.6 million through Monday.  The party is likely to be over fairly soon for this film.

Long-runner--and freshly minted Golden Globe winner--Black Panther: Wakanda Forever continues to play, taking in $2.5 million through Sunday and $3.1 million though Monday, for a total of $450 million.  It arrives on Disney+ at the beginning of February.

The Whale, which is highly likely to see star Brendan Frasier nominated for Best Actor when Oscar nominations are announced next week, came in 8th, taking in $1.5 million through Sunday and $1.8 million through Monday, for a total of $11.1 million.  In 9th, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody is dancing out of theaters, taking in $1.2 million through Sunday and $1.4 million through Monday, for a total of $22.2 million.

Wrapping up the Top 10 was Indian movie Waltair Veerayya, which opened to $1.1 million through Sunday and $1.2 million through Monday.

After a couple of strong weekends for newcomers, the box office is likely to slow down this weekend.  Only one new wide release is scheduled, the thriller missing, starring Storm Reid, most famous for her work on the Disney flop A Wrinkle in Time and for her supporting role on Euphoria.  She plays a teenager who tries to find her mother, who has disappeared in Colombia, from her computer in Los Angeles.  It's from the makers of the similar thriller Searching, which was a minor hit in 2018.  It shouldn't challenge Avatar for the #1 slot, but could be heading for a opening above $10 million.  Also opening, in more limited release, is the latest anime series to release a feature film version.  That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime: Scarlet Bond will attempt to do with Jujutsu Kaisen 0, Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, and One Piece: Red did last year and make a mark on the US box office, at least for one weekend.  It has a decent shot of debuting in the lower half of the Top 10.  Will Missing surprise, or is Avatar destined for a sixth weekend on top?  We'll find out next week.

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