Box Office Discussion: New Year's "Way"

 Avatar: The Way of Water utterly dominates New Year's weekend, while Puss in Boots: The Last Wish shows some life.

Traditionally, movies opening in December don't have huge openings.  Blockbusters make it up by cleaning up during the week between Christmas and New Year's, when every day is basically Saturday, and then playing well through January.  However, in 2015, Star Wars: The Force Awakens scored the what was then the largest opening weekend ever the weekend before Christmas.  Last year, Spider-Man: No Way Home had the second-biggest weekend ever, also the weekend before Christmas.  The old rule seemed to be dead, which is why I was somewhat dismissive of Avatar: The Way of Water's $134.1 opening two weeks ago.  It was certainly a solid enough opening, but wasn't the massive amount that the final gross of the first Avatar would have suggested.  When the film fell to $63.3 million over Christmas weekend, that seemed to confirm the film would make a ton of money, but not challenge Top Gun: Maverick for the year's top spot.

What a difference a week makes.  As it turns out, maybe a lot of people don't have time to spend 3 1/2 hours in a movie theater the week before Christmas, but they sure have that time after Christmas.  Avatar put up grosses every day last week over $20 million, and scored $67.4 million over New Year's weekend, bringing its total to $425.5 million.  That's enough for it to end the weekend knocking on the door of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for #2 for 2022.  It's $30 million ahead of where Top Gun was at the end of its third weekend, and will almost certainly be past $600 million by the end of January.  Will that be enough to pass Maverick and claim the #1 spot for 2022?  It depends on how the movie holds up now that the holidays are over, and if it can successfully navigate a January that certainly looks considerably tougher than last January, when the options were Scream and pretty much nothing else.

In second, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish also looked like a disappointment coming off Christmas.  But, like Avatar, it found its audience after the holiday, and had a very successful second weekend, jumping 35% to $16.8 million.  Its 12-day total stands at $61.2 million.  And, with no other family film coming out until Super Mario Bros. in April, Boots has a very good chance of becoming only the fourth animated film of the pandemic era to hit $100 million.

Surging back to third is the aforementioned long-runner Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.  The latest MCU title took in $5.2 million to bring its gross to $438.3 million, enough for #2 for the year--for now.

Failing to catch on is biopic Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody, which needed to surge this week, and instead dropped from Christmas weekend, grossing $3.9 million for a ten-day total of $14.5 million.  The dance looks like it's going to come to an end around $25 million.

Dance, however, looks like a massive blockbuster compared to Babylon, which has now replaced Strange World as the bomb of the holiday season.  The producers apparently were hoping it would ape the box office of two prior Margot Robbie epics, featuring the holiday release date and general decadence of The Wolf of Wall Street combined with a peek behind the curtain of historical Hollywood like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.  Of course, those two movies starred Leonardo DiCaprio, and the presence of Hollywood stars Robbie and Brad Pitt aren't bringing in the audiences like Leo probably could.  The very expensive drama made only $2.6 million for a ten-day total of $10 million.

Also falling, though for understandable reasons, Violent Night took in $2.1 million for a total of $47.5 million.  Normally, a film with that gross coming off that weekend would be a lock for $50 million, but this could very well be the end of the line for Night, as Christmas-themed movies rarely do well once the ball drops.  For example, The Grinch was #6 with a gross of $8.5 million the weekend before Christmas 2018, and dropped to #17 with a gross of $1.2 million the weekend after New Year's 2019.  That said, Night nicely exceeded expectations, and no matter what side of the $50 million line it ends up, it will be regarded as a solid hit.

In #7th, Oscar contender The Whale brought in $1.4 million for a total of $5.8 million.  Long-runner The Menu served up $1.1 million for a total of $36.2 million.  Another Oscar contender, The Fabelmans, made $1 million for a total of $12.1 million.  Rounding out the Top Ten, Strange World now stands at $37 million.

Avatar will likely win the weekend, but it will have some competition in M3gan.  The first new film of 2023, this sci-fi thriller is about an advanced doll (voiced by Jenna Davis) who becomes far, far, far too protective of the young girl (Violet McGraw) who adopts her.  This looks to have the best opening of a film not part of a franchise since at least Smile, and maybe even Bullet Train.  Going semi-wide is A Man Called Otto, a dramady starring Tom Hanks as a curmudgeon who reluctantly befriends his new immigrant neighbors (why, yes, that is the exact plot of the 2008 Clint Eastwood vehicle Gran Torino).  It could easily find itself in the Top 5 ahead of its wide release next week.  Could M3gan pull the upset, or will Avatar fly high once again?  We'll find out next week.