Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Box Office Discussion: "Black" (Pre) Christmas

 

As Hollywood runs scared from Avatar, Black Panther becomes the first movie to win 5 weeks in a row since the first one.

For the past decade and a half, Hollywood has largely ignored the first weekend of December, with whatever newcomers that open there usually being genre films and/or dumps.  Before the pandemic, however, the second weekend was also becoming somewhat of a ghost town, with that weekend seeing such uninspired titles as Just Getting Started, Office Christmas Party, and In the Heart of the Sea as the biggest releases, all of which got walloped by whatever had been topping the box office since Thanksgiving (to be fair, in 2019, that weekend saw the release of Jumanji: The Next Level).  Still, even if this weekend was hardly a top tier release date, its still surprising that no new film braved the weekend for a wide release, and at a box office that was reeling from pretty much all of the Thanksgiving offerings having flopped, that meant this was the second-worst weekend in what had already been a lousy year.

One could blame next week's return to the planet of Pandora for the studio's reluctance to take a chance, but still, anything would have been better than what we got, in which the top five titles stayed exactly the same and of the two new arrivals in the Top 10, both finished well under $1 million, and one was a special opera theater simulcast.

With no actual competition, the winner pretty much by default was Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, spending a fifth and almost certainly final weekend on top, with a rather meager $11.2 million.  The superhero hit, one of the few bright spots of the holidays so far, has now amassed $410 million.  That's enough that it should pass Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness (which topped out at $411.3 million) by this weekend to become the second-highest grossing film of the year.  Whether it can stay at #2 will be seen in the coming weeks.

Holding up quite well, at least in part due to the lack of competition, Christmas action comedy Violent Night came down the chimney with another $8.7 million to put under the tree.  The film, in which David Harbour, as Santa Claus, decides to take out some naughty terrorists at the behest of a nice little girl, has a ten-day total of $26.7 million.  If the film is able to survive the coming onslaught of blue aliens, it could be at $40 million by Christmas, and even has a shot at topping out around $50 million, which would be a huge win for this film.

Speaking of naughty, Strange World continues to head toward the lowest gross of any major Disney animated title since Treasure Planet.  It made $3.8 million for a total of $30.6 million.  With another strange world hitting theaters this weekend, not to mention the arrival of Puss in Boots ahead of Christmas, don't be surprised to see this world stop turning before New Year's.

The Menu served up a couple of major Golden Globe nominations earlier this week, for stars Ralph Finnes and Anya Taylor-Joy, which could help boost the minor hit's decent box office return.  The black comedy made $2.8 million for a total of $29.1 million, and could be heading for $40 million.

Jonathan Majors may be an up-and-comer, but his fighter pilot drama continues to crash land, taking in $2 million for a total of $17 million.  It's likely to finish under $25 million.

There was some discussion this week about whether Black Adam was a hit or a flop, given its high production costs.  It does seem likely that, with the new reign at DC and Warners, that the character--at least in this incarnation--is going to end up as a one-and-done.  The film took in $1.3 million for a total of $166.9 million, a solid total, but one that is probably at least $100 million below what it needed to get a sequel.

Steven Spielberg's The Fabelmans picked up 5 Golden Globe nominations and should be a major contender at this year's Oscars.  However, it's also looking like it could be the lowest-grossing film he's directed since The Sugarland Express, in 1974.  The autobiographical drama took in $1.2 million for a total of $7.3 million.  

Opening in 8th was the national simulcast of The Hours, the new opera based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel by Michael Cunningham, which had been previously adapted into a 2002 movie with Meryl Streep, Julianne Moore, and Nicole Kidman, in an Oscar-winning performance.  The Met staged its world premiere, with divas Renee Fleming, Kelli O'Hara, and Joyce DiDonato in the three lead roles, in November, and opera fans were able to see it on the big screen Saturday night.  The limited engagement made $0.8 million.

Christmas-themed Christian drama I Heard the Bells came in ninth, with a total of $4 million.  Expanding into tenth was the comedy-drama Spoiler Alert.  Despite starring Jim Parsons and Sally Field, audiences ignored the drama about a gay couple rocked by a cancer diagnosis.  It has a ten-day total of $0.8 million.

Farther--much farther--down the chart, Sony's attempt to convince audiences to see the PG-13 cut of Father Stu, the inspirational, R-rated Mark Wahlberg/Mel Gibson drama that came and went last spring, failed miserably. taking in a bit over $0.1 million.

In the last 25 years, James Cameron has directed two feature films.  Both of them, Titanic and Avatar, became the highest-grossing films of all time.  Can he do it again with his first film since Avatar 13 years ago?  If the reviews of Avatar: The Way of Water are any indication, he just might.  The sci-fi epic is arriving amid a wave of rapturous notices.   Expect an opening of at least $150 million.  Could it go even higher?  Very possibly.  While I don't expect an opening as high as Avengers: Endgame's, I wouldn't be shocked if it opens in the neighborhood of $260 million, which is what Spider-Man: No Way Home opened at last year.  Will the Na'vi top Spidey?  We'll find out next week.

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