Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Box Office Discussion: "Panther" on the Prowl


 After just one weekend, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is already in 2022's Top 10.  How much higher will it go?

For the past three weeks, America flocked to a superhero movie with the word "black" in its title.  As it turned out, it was just keeping the seat warm for the other superhero movie with "black" in its title.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, as expected, exploded into theaters with a whopping $181.3 million opening, already earning more than Black Adam has made in its entire run.  That's the second highest opening of the year (only a few million below Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness).  Indeed, it finished the weekend 8th for the year already.  The sky could be the limit as, while some major films are on their way, its entirely possible that Panther could dominate the box office for over a month, until Avatar: The Way of Water opens right before Christmas.

One minor cause for concern might be the fact it opened over $20 million below what the first Black Panther did back in early 2018.  That suggests that Wakanda might not be able to reach the heights of the original, which topped out at $700 million.  Still, it seems likely to have better legs than Doctor Strange, which should have it firmly at #2 for the year by the time Avatar arrives.

The pretender to the throne, Black Adam, unsurprisingly had a big drop this weekend, to $8.1 million.  The Dwayne Johnson anti-hero thriller has now grossed $150.6 million.  Even with further drops, it should still make it to about $170 million, and $180 million isn't out of the question if it is able to stabilize.

Ticket to Paradise continues to its old-fashioned leggy run, earning $5.9 million for a total of $56.3 million.  A final gross north of $70 million now seems assured.

With a lot of kids out of school for Veterans Day on Friday, Lyle, Lyle Crocodile, as the only family film around, did healthy business, rising to 4th and taking in $3.2 million.  It has now grossed $40.8 million and has one more weekend with the family market to itself before Strange World arrives for Thanksgiving.

Smile looks like it's finally on its way out, taking in $2.3 million in its 7th weekend.  That's enough to push it past $100 million, finishing the weekend at $102.8 million.  It is fairing considerably better than its horror competition Prey for the Devil, which took it $1.9 million for a total of $16.9 million.

For the second weekend in a row, The Banshees of Inisherin continues to lead the pack of semi-wide Oscar contenders, earning $1.7 million for a total of $5.7 million.

Unsurprisingly, One Piece Film: Red suffered the same fate as most theatrical spinoffs of anime TV shows, falling very, very hard in its second weekend.  The action comedy fell a whopping 85% to $1.5 million, for a 10-day total of $12.8 million.

Rounding out the Top 10 are two more Oscar contenders, neither of which could pull in even a million for the weekend.  Till is now up to $8 million, and Tár is now at $4.6 million.

The weekend before Thanksgiving is usually a potent date for a blockbuster, but as Black Panther affected the weekend before it came out, it also affects the weekend after, as the biggest release is the Oscar contending docudrama She Said, starring Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan as New York Times reporters investigating claims that Hollywood mega-producer Harvey Weinstein has spent decades raping women.  The natural comparison here, I think, is to the 2019 drama Bombshell, also about a sexual harassment investigation that took down a powerful executives, but She Said is getting better reviews and might have a better chance at box office glory.  Also contending is The Menu, a horror-comedy about a renowned chef who invites a select few, including Anya Taylor-Joy, Nicholas Hoult, and Hong Chau, to an isolated island for an elaborate dinner, only for things to get really weird.  We should also not count out The Chosen, the hugely popular independently produced streaming series about the life of Jesus.  Last December, its Christmas concert spin-off was an unexpected hit, and this weekend, the first two episodes of Season 3 are screening in theaters across the country.  While nothing should be able to dislodge Black Panther, it will be a competition for #2.  Who will prevail?  We'll find out next week.

No comments:

Post a Comment