Thursday, October 13, 2022

Box Office Discussion: When You "Smile"


 Smile could be grinning its way to the century mark, while Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile and Amsterdam have disappointing openings.

For filmmakers trying to convince their studios to allow their films to have a full theatrical release rather than getting sent straight to streaming, they now have a pretty good exhibit A in Smile.  The creepy thriller was, at one point, pegged to be a Paramount+ exclusive.  But the studio decided to send it into wide release instead, and the decision is making a lot of execs very happy right now.

Indeed, it was all grins at the studio as the film retained first by falling a ridiculously small 18% from its opening, to take in $18.5 million.  That brings its ten-day total to $50.8 million, or about $3.5 million more than The Black Phone, until now the year's standard-bearer for low-budget horror hits, had earned in the same amount of time.  Phone topped out at $89.9 million, and there's no reason to think Smile won't soar right past it.  Indeed, even with direct horror competition this weekend, it has three more weeks until Halloween (the holiday), leaving it plenty of room to hit the century mark before the end of its run.

It's been two whole months since DC League of Super-Pets flew into theaters, meaning that, in theory at least, there should be plenty of pent-up demand for the next family title.  In practice, however, parents by and large said "we're good" as Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile could only come up with an $11.4 million opening.  Apparently, parents weren't that eager to sit though another movie with another CGI creature befriends another cute kid and takes him on another exciting adventure, even if this variation has Constance Wu and Javier Bardem.  The good news for Lyle is that the next family movie, Strange World, isn't due out until Thanksgiving, meaning that Lyle could have strong legs pretty much by default.

Likely not having strong legs is Amsterdam, David O. Russell's new comedy-mystery with a huge, all-star cast.  Critics weren't particularly kind to the film, and neither were audiences, as it could only manage $6.4 million.  That is at least twice what the similar See How They Run opened to in mid-September, but given that this film is much more expensive, that's cold comfort.  Amsterdam could end up being one of the biggest flops of the year.

In fourth, The Woman King continues to do solid business as it becomes one of the more unheralded hits of the fall.  It took in another $5.2 million for a total of $54 million.  It should finish north of $70 million.  Despite opening at a near-identical number, Don't Worry Darling is not going to finish anywhere near Woman King's final thanks to negative word-of-mouth, as the thriller took in $3.5 million, for a total of $38.5 million.  It will likely struggle to get to $50 million.

The re-release of Avatar continues to do solid business, taking in $2.7 million for a re-release total of $23.5 million.  Its lifetime total is now up to $784 million, and its success has probably eased worry about the upcoming The Way of Water.

Like The Woman King and Smile, Barbarian continues to be a word-of-mouth success, as the thriller took in $2.2 million for a total of $36.5 million.  It should finish above $40 million, giving it excellent legs, especially for a horror movie.  Gay romcom Bros will have to wait until streaming to become the cult hit it seems destined to become, as it collapsed from its small opening last week.  It was only able to take in $2.2 million for a meager ten-day total of $8.9 million, and a likely finish of just over $10 million.

For the first time since mid-July, not every film in the Top 10 was able to make it to a million.  Finishing either 9th or 10th, depending on what source you're looking at, is Top Gun: Maverick, celebrating it's 20th weekend on the chart, even if it only took in $0.8 million (Avatar, by comparison, was only in the Top 10 for 14 weeks during its original 2009-2010 run).  It is now up to $714.7 million.

According to Box Office Mojo, coming in 10th was the little-promoted horror film Terrifier 2, which opened to $0.8 million.  The Numbers agrees with that total, but reports both it and Top Gun finished below the second weekend of Ponniyin Selvan, which made $0.9 million.  Mojo, on the other hand, reports the Indian film having made only $0.3 million for the weekend.  Which number is accurate I have no idea, but that would make its ten-day total either $4.9 million or $4.3 million, depending on the source.

Definitely outside the Top 10, romantic dramady The Good House has a ten-day total of $1.6 million.  Meanwhile, possible Oscar contenders Tar and Triangle of Sadness got up to solid runs in limited release.  Both could potentially find their way into the Top 10 in coming weeks, depending on how wide each film goes.

This weekend sees only one new release, and it is likely to be an easy #1.  Halloween Ends both wraps up the newest trilogy of the iconic horror series, but is likely to be the final time Jamie Lee Curtis plays Laurie Strodie, a character she first played in 1978.  Last year's Halloween Kills was not very well liked, as it opened to $49.4 million but was unable to even double its first weekend take.  Despite that, observers are expecting Ends to open just as strong, if not stronger.  At the very least, it's likely to be the best opening since Nope, if not Thor: Love and Thunder.  Will Ends end up with over $50 million for the weekend?  We'll find out next week.

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