Thursday, October 6, 2022

Box Office Discussion: Nothing But a "Smile"


 Smile makes its producers grin from ear to ear, while not too many have a gay ol' time at Bros.

At the beginning of August, Hollywood and movie theater owners starred nervously at the next two months of releases, with nary an effects-driven ISP in sight.  Instead, for the most part, the only things that would be coming out were originals, most of them bereft of the budget-smashing CGI that movie studios are renowned for.  Some observers expected August and September would be a bloodbath.

And while it is true there were some rocky weekends along the way, for the most part, several of the titles released over the last two months have done just fine.  While there has only been one $100 million grosser, others have overperformed and there have been relatively few embarrassments.  Indeed, the last three weekends have seen the solid openings of original, R-rated titles, in three different genres.

This week's biggest title is Smile, the new horror film that casts relative newcomer Sosie Bacon (who is only one degree from Kevin Bacon, being his and Kyra Sedgwick's daughter) as a shrink cursed with seeing victims display the same creepy smile.  The film opened to $22.6 million, becoming the first new film to break the $20 million mark since Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero the weekend of August 19, and the best overall opening since Bullet Train two weeks earlier.  With October being spooky season, and Halloween Ends in two weeks being its only direct competition, there's no reason to think Smile will turn to a frown anytime soon.  Expect this to top $60 million.

Probably causing some worry in second, last week's champ Don't Worry Darling fell by 65% from its opening last weekend, to $6.9 million.  That's enough for a ten-day total of $32.4 million. The film seems to have burned through those curious about its trouble production, and will have to stabilize fast if it hopes to make it to $50 million.  

In contrast, the well-received The Woman King had only a small slide, to $6.8 million.  The actioner is up to $46.5 million, and is on its way to at least $60 million, and may even be able to pull $70 million.

In fourth, the re-release of Avatar continues to show why it was, at least for a while, the highest-grossing film of all time.  It made $5 million, for a ten-day total of $18.9 million.  The title is scheduled to end its run on Thursday, but don't be surprised if Disney decides to give it an open-ended release.

Despite arriving on a wave of hype and good reviews, gay romcom Bros landed with a thud, opening in fifth to only $4.9 million.  Not only is that well behind the openings of recent gay-themed titles like Love, Simon and Rocketman, but it even managed to make considerably less than 90s gay classics like Philadelphia, In & Out, and The Birdcage.  Unless strong word-of-mouth kicks in, and quickly, Bros seems likely to only make around $10 million.

Opening in sixth, and nearly keeping Bros out of the top 5, was the Indian action movie Ponniyin Selvan, which made $4 million and racked up the top per-screen in the Top 10.  It also managed to make roughly four times what fellow Indian action movie Vikram Vedha opened to, as it arrived in 12th.

Continuing to do OK business at 7th is Barbarian, which scared up $2.8 million for a total of $33.1 million, as it tries to make it to $40 million.  After 9 weeks of release, Bullet Train finally chugged past the $100 million mark, as it took in $1.3 million for a total of $101.3 million.

Rounding out the Top 10, DC League of Super-Pets looks to finally be departing the Top 10 after 10 weeks now that a new family movie is finally coming out.  It made $1.3 million for a total of $91.6 million.  And in tenth, in it's 19th and likely final week there, Top Gun: Maverick managed to fly in another $1.2 million for a total of $713.4 million.

Other than the aforementioned Vikram Vedha, also opening outside the Top 10 is the romantic dramady The Good House, which reteams Kevin Kline and Sigourney Weaver for the third time, after Dave and The Ice Storm.  Despite the pairing, the film, which received very little promotion, took in only $0.8 million.

This weekend sees two new releases aiming to make Smile frown.  Amsterdam is an all-star, period piece, European set comedy-mystery that has the bad timing to follow the flop all-star, period piece, European set comedy-mystery See How They Run by three weeks.  Of course, Amsterdam is directed and written by 5-time Oscar nominee David O. Russell, in his first film since Joy, and it has a lot more stars in its all-star cast than See How They Run could dream of.  Meanwhile, family audiences that haven't had a new film aimed at them since Super-Pets arrived in late July finally get one with Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile, about how a family finds the title character, who can talk and sing with the voice of Shawn Mendes, in their new house in New York City.  Constance Wu, Javier Bardem, and busy kid actor Winslow Fegley are the main humans in the cast.  Will either film, or both films, keep Smile from repeating?  We'll find out next week.

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