Box Office Discussion: The "Ends" is Nigh

 

After 44 years and 13 movies, Halloween Ends the franchise (for now), but with the lowest opening of the new revival series.

In the spring of 1978, 19-year-old Jamie Lee Curtis, daughter of famous actors Tony Curtis and Janet Leigh, filmed what was not only her first lead role in a motion picture, but her first motion picture role period, as a babysitter stalked by a masked madman in a low-budget horror film.  Little did she suspect that 44 years later, that film would have become one of the most iconic horror films ever made, launching a franchise that would produce 13 different movies, and that, at the age of 63, she'd be reprising that role for the 7th and (presumably) final time.

Halloween Ends, which brings the long-running franchise to a close (though, given Hollywood's refusal to let any IP go, we'll probably see another entry sooner or later), has the best start since Nope in July, taking in $40.1 million.  While that is a solid start, it is well below predictions that the film would top $50 million.  Of course, those predictions didn't take into account that last year's entry, Halloween Kills, wasn't even able to double its opening weekend gross, a sign of awful word-of-mouth that was naturally going to affect the next entry just a year later.  Reaction to Ends has been better, but not by much, so it remains to be seen if it can have a better trajectory.  If it follows Kills, it will finish with less than $80 million.

In many ways Smile, which slips to 2nd after two weeks on top, has a lot in common with the original Halloween.  Like that film, its a low-budgeted horror movie that entered the market with low expectations, but proved to be a surprise by both getting solid reviews and outstanding box office.  Even its star, Sosie Bacon, is a newcomer who is the daughter of two famous actors (Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgwick).  Smile will undoubtably not be as influential as Halloween (don't expect numerous rip-offs about sinister facial expressions in the coming years), but it is a huge hit, slipping only 32% even against a fellow horror film, to $12.6 million.  The film's gross now stands at $71.3 million, and is almost certainly heading to $100 million and a final gross likely well north of the more publicized Ends.

There are certainly some people who think a singing CGI crocodile with the voice of Shawn Mendes is far more horrifying than anything in Halloween or Smile, but Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile is in fact a family comedy, though one that is unable to overcome whatever malaise has affected most family films from even before the pandemic.  The film brought in $7.4 million in its second weekend, for a ten-day total of $22.7 million.  It fell 35%, indicating that it might have the legs to stick around until Strange World arrives at Thanksgiving, but it seems likely to finish south of $40 million.

In fourth, The Woman King continues to add on to its solid total, taking in $3.7 million for a total of $59.8 million.  It seems likely to be over $70 million by the end of the month.

Crime comedy Amsterdam is looking like one of the fall's big flops, as it drops nearly 60% in its second weekend to $2.8 million.  Its ten-day total stands at $11.8 million, and the $80 million film is likely to finish below $20 million domestic.

In sixth, Don't Worry Darling appears to have stabilized, earning $2.2 million for a total of $42.5 million.  It still seems likely to finish below $50 million, but it will be close.  Early September horror hit Barbarian brought in $1.4 million, for a total of $38.9 million, and could be over $40 million by this time next week.

Undoubtably helped by a slate of stories this week about how nauseatingly bloody and disgusting it was, low-budget indie horror flick Terrifier 2, about a psycho clown stalking a teenage girl and her little brother, actually saw its grosses go up, despite losing screens from last week.  The film earned $1 million for a ten-day gross (in both senses of the word) of $2.5 million.  For this film, a final anywhere near $10 million would be a huge success, and with two more weekends before Halloween (the holiday), it might get surprisingly close.

Rounding out the top 10 is gay romcom Bros, which is up to $10.9 million, and, in its 21st week in the Top 10, Top Gun: Maverick, with a gross of $715.8 million.  If this is, at long last, its final week on the chart, it flies off with one of the longest runs of any mainstream release this century.  

This week sees the arrival of two big fall films which seems likely to push Halloween to third.  Likely opening in first is Black Adam, the latest entry in the DC Universe, starring Dwayne Johnson as the titular anti-hero, who is infused with the power of the Gods in ancient Egypt, and is then unleashed in the present day to kill a lot of bad guys.  The character is supposed to be the arch-nemesis of Shazam (they got their powers the same way), but other than similar costumes, for now the two franchises-within-a-franchise are remaining separate (no Shazam! cast member appears in this, and Johnson does not appear to be on the cast list of next year's Shazam! sequel).  Meanwhile, Ticket to Paradise, likely opening in second, is something we just don't see much of anymore--an old-fashioned romcom with two big stars.  Those would be George Clooney and Julia Roberts, teaming up for the first time since 2016's Money Monster, as feuding exes who discover they both think their daughter's impending nuptials in Bali is a huge mistake, and team up to stop the wedding.  Will Adam be first?  Will there be enough tickets sold to Paradise for it to hit the top?  Or could Halloween Ends stay at the beginning of the list?  We'll find out next week.