Thursday, July 7, 2022

Box Office Discussion: "Rise" to the Top


 It was a red, white, and yellow 4th of July weekend, as Minions: The Rise of Gru set a new Independence Day record.

Over the past weeks and months, I've mentioned multiple times about the struggles of animation in the post-pandemic theatrical marketplace.  The news hasn't been all bad--The Croods: A New Age was the highest-grossing pandemic release of 2020, both Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train and Jujutsu Kaisen 0 did excellent business for anime titles, and the cultural impact of Encanto far exceeded its rather modest theatrical returns--but many animated titles largely underperformed, it not outright flopped.  Going into the weekend, only Sing 2 had managed to top the $100 million mark since the beginning of 2020.

That finally changed this weekend as two animated titles broke through that barrier.  Only one of them, Minions: The Rise of Gru, got much attention doing it, though, as it hit the mark after only three days in release, debuting over the 4th of July weekend with an outstanding three-day total of $107 million, by far the best start of an animated title since Frozen II in November 2019.  With the grosses from Monday are factored in, the debut rises to $123.1 million.  There are two other animated titles coming up later this month--Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank and DC League of Superpets, but even with the all-star casts both movies boast, neither seems likely to do anything near Minions business.  Disney may still have a lock on critical acclaim and longevity, but box-office wise, with the one-two punch of Minions and Sing, especially compared to the grosses of the Mouse's three pandemic-era animated releases, it's hard not to deny that for right now, Illumination is king.

Spending its sixth straight weekend in the Top 3, Top Gun: Maverick continues to fly higher and higher.  Moviegoers gave birthday boy Tom Cruise another $25.9 million over the weekend, the fourth-highest 6th weekend gross ever.  The film is now at $564.6 million, and should be over the $600 million mark by next weekend.  Last week I speculated that $700 million was doable, but unlikely.  Unless Top Gun finally starts having normal declines, it's looking like $700 million is very likely, and maybe possibly $800 million might be on the table.

In third, last week's champ Elvis didn't hold up as well as Top Gun, of course, but it held pretty decenly, taking in $18.5 million for a ten-day total of $66.8 million.  The film has become the highest-grossing adult drama of the pandemic era, and is likely to become the first one since Ford vs. Ferrari to top $100 million, a number that might put Elvis into Oscar contention (expect Austin Butler to be a dark horse Best Actor contender).

In fourth, Jurassic World: Dominion brought in $16.4 million, bringing its total to $332.5 million.  It still seems likely to finish below $400 million, but still has an outside chance.

The Black Phone held up very well in 5th, earning another $12.3 million for a ten-day total of $47.4 million.  Look for a final gross of between $70 and $80 million.

Getting past the $100 million mark just ahead of Minions, Lightyear took in $6.5 million for a total of $105.2 million.  It seems likely to have enough to get past The Good Dinosaur, but will likely finish short of Cars 3, a number that will mark this as one of Pixar's biggest flops.  We have to keep our fingers crossed that Disney won't use this as an excuse to send Pixar's next movie, Elemental, straight to Disney+ next summer.

Opening in 7th is the lightly advertised Regency-era romcom Mr. Malcolm's List, which for some reason opened in nearly 1,400 theaters instead of getting a limited release.  Unsurprisingly, the very British film failed to break out on the most red, white, and blue weekend of the year, as it could only manage $0.8 million.  It might be lucky to break $2 million before it heads off to await rediscovery on one of the streamers.

Rounding out the Top Ten are competing multiverse movies Everything Everywhere All at Once and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, along with the second weekend of Indian comedy Jug Jugg Jeeyo.  Their grosses are $67 million, $410.6 million, and $1 million, respectively.

Minions's time on the top is likely to be short, because this weekend's big arrival is Thor: Love and Thunder.  The latest MCU offering, it sees Thor (Chris Hemsworth) back in fighting shape, and dealing with both his ex-girlfriend (Natalie Portman, returning to the franchise after having skipped Thor: Ragnarok) having somehow acquired superpowers of her own, and a vengeful creature (Christian Bale, under a ton of makeup) who wants to kill all gods.  This one will also feature the Guardians of the Galaxy (in what will likely be a preview of their third movie next year), Russell Crowe as Zeus, and a glimpse of Hemsworth's bare butt.  Ragnarok opened to $123 million back in 2017, so I'd expect this one to open at least that high, but it seems likely to open even higher.  Can Thor beat Multiverse of Madness's $187 million opening?  Could it potentially break past the $200 million barrier?  We'll find out next weekend.

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