Wednesday, June 8, 2022

Box Office Discussion: Summer Fun n "Gun"


 Top Gun: Maverick has a spectacular second weekend, while David Croenberg's latest sneaks into the Top 10.

The usual pattern for massive blockbusters is a massive opening weekend, followed by a steep second-weekend drop.  The reason is that most massive blockbusters just aren't all that good, which means the second weekend crowd is largely made up of people who had planned to see the film, but for whatever reason unable to make it out the previous weekend.  On occasion, however, a blockbuster will prompt people to tell their friends "You have got to see this!"  And that's what appears to be happening with Top Gun: Maverick.

The 3 1/2 decades later sequel earned an incredible $90 million in its second week, a decline of only 29% from the weekend before.  That's the smallest second-weekend decline of a film that opened to over $100 million ever, and it does it coming off of a holiday weekend, which makes the hold even more impressive.  Maverick turned in a ten-day total of $295.6 million, making this Tom Cruise's biggest hit ever, a stunning achievement even when you consider most of his biggest hits were from the 80s and 90s.  Smashing past $400 million is a given, and soaring above $500 million is quite likely.  To be totally fair, this second weekend came against almost no new competition, but Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness tumbled 67% in its second weekend, despite its only real competition being Firestarter.

The aforementioned Doctor Strange has, to a certain extent, seen its grosses stabilize after that drop, as it comes in second with $9.2 million.  The MCU cog currently stands at $388.6 million, and should top $400 million in the next couple of weeks.  Of course, by then, it might already be looking up at Top Gun.

The Bob's Burgers Movie suffered the second-weekend fall that blockbusters typically get, fading 63%, suggesting that fans of the show came out last weekend, but non-fans are, well, going to see Top Gun instead.  The animated comedy made $4.6 million for a ten-day total of $22.4 million, not bad, but not the franchise-expander that Fox undoubtedly hoped when they greenlit the film, well before the Disney merger.

Long-running animated comedy The Bad Guys came in fourth, with $3.3 million, for a total of $87.3 million.  With Lightyear only two weeks away, this seems destined to fall just short of $100 million, though studios have been known to take creative measures to push titles over the mark.

Along with Bob's Burgers, Downton Abbey: A New Era shows the risks of TV show adaptions, as both titles seem to be only attracting fans of the shows.  It took in $3.2 million this weekend, for a total of $35.9 million, and will finish far below the grosses of the first Downton Abbey movie in 2019.

Top Gun may be developing into a word-of-mouth hit, but it is also a massive pre-sold blockbuster that was destined to do at least $150 million no matter what.  It can't hold a candle in terms of up from nothing to Everything Everywhere All At Once, which had an even smaller weekly decline than Top Gun (18%!) and brought in another $2 million to raise its gross to $60.6 million, the first film ever from distributer A24 to top the $60 million mark.  Given its continued tiny weekly drops, it has a fighting chance to make it to $70 million and maybe even $75 million before it wraps up its run.

Opening in 7th is Bollywood action epic Vikram.  The thriller opened to $1.8 million.

Two Paramount titles that both survived their premieres onto Paramount+ are in 8th and 9th.  Sonic the Hedgehog 2 took in $1.7 million to run its gross to $188.3 million, while The Lost City made $1.4 million to bring its grosses to $104 million.

Opening in 10th, straight from Cannes, is the David Croenberg body horror thriller Crimes of the Future, in which Viggo Mortensen plays a performance artist whose act consists of surgeries to remove new, unnecessary organs he is constantly growing.  Co-starring Kristen Stewart and Léa Seydoux, this one opens to somewhat mixed reviews, and its $1.2 million gross can probably be attributed to its star power, as it finished ahead of the week's other semi-wide thriller, Watcher, whose lead is the largely unknown Maika Monroe.

It was a nice run for Top Gun, but its likely to be taking the highway to the second-place zone this weekend, as Jurassic World: Dominion arrives to consume the rest of the box office.  The third entry in the second trilogy has dinosaurs loose all over the world, and it's up to Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard, along with the original Jurassic Park's trio of Sam Neill, Laura Dern, and Jeff Goldblum, to save the non-Jurassic parts of the world.  The first World in 2015 opened to $208 million, while Fallen Kingdom in 2018 opened to $148 million.  I'm guessing this will open somewhere between those two numbers, though I wouldn't be shocked if it opens higher than the first World.  Just how big of a bite will Dominion take in the box office?  We'll find out next week.

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