Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Box Office Discussion: "Bad" to the Bone


 On a quiet weekend, The Bad Guys win again, while Memory is destined to be forgotten.

There are a few weekends a year that can be counted on to have few if any major new arrivals.  Halloween weekend.  The first weekend of December.  And the week before the first Marvel movie of summer arrives, which is usually the last weekend of April.  With a new MCU movie on the horizon this Friday, the studios decided to just leave the box office the way it was.

Leading the pack for the second weekend in a row is The Bad Guys, the animated caper comedy from DreamWorks.  It held up pretty well in its second weekend, taking in $16.2 million for a ten-day total of $44.6 million.  That suggests a final gross in the $75 million-$85 million range, but with May largely devoid of new family titles, this does have an outside chance of legging it all the way to $100 million.

Racing into 2nd is Sonic the Hedgehog 2, which also held up quite well, zooming away with $11.5 million for a total of $161.4 million, which is probably pretty close to what the first film would have finished at if the pandemic hadn't cut off the film's run.  Sonic is likely to finish its run in the $180-$190 million range, but, like The Bad Guys, might be able to take advantage of May and get to $200 million.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore continues to fade quickly, as the magical sequel could only conjure up $8.3 million.  It now stands at $79.6 million, and will need decent legs over the next few weeks to hit the $100 million mark.

Future likely cult hit The Northman did not have a good hold, falling almost half from last week's opening, to $6.4 million, with a ten-day total of $22.9 million.  It will likely finish its run between $30 and $40 million.

Made to be a future cult hit, but became an actual hit sci-fi action comedy Everything Everywhere All At Once continues its strong run, actually improving on last week's gross.  It took in another $5.5 million to bring itself to $35.5 million.  $50 million is a given at this point.  Could it make it to $60 million?

Future likely cult hit The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, like The Northman, fell hard in its second weekend, as the comedy made $3.9 million, for a ten-day total of $13.5 million.  This could end up at only around $20 million.

The Lost City continues to chug along, picking up $3.8 million for a total of $90.7 million.  Will it make it to $100 million?  We'll find out in the coming weeks.

In 8th is the weekend's one new film, Memory, starring Liam Neeson as a hitman suffering from early Alzheimer's.  The latest in Neeson's seemingly never-ending string of action thrillers, the film could only scrape up $3.1 million in it's first outing, and seems likely to finish under $10 million.

Rounding out the Top 10 are two April movies starring relatively unpopular men, Father Stu and Morbius.  The former took in $2.2 million for a total of $17.6 million, and the latter brought in $1.5 million for a total of $71.5 million.

Kicking off the summer movie season, Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness sees the good doctor traveling to several alternative dimensions and encountering different versions of himself.  Along for the ride are Elizabeth Olsen (in Wanda Maximoff's first appearance since WandaVision concluded), Benedict Wong, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Rachel McAdams, and Patrick Stewart (as Professor X?).  The question is just how huge will it open?  A $150 million weekend seems to be on the low end of predictions.  Could it go as high as $200 million?  That seems way too high, but given that this is coming off of Spider-Man: No Way Home, we can't rule it out, either.  We'll find out just how maddening was the opening next week.

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