Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Box Office Discussion: Not So "Fantastic"


 Over Easter, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore had a magically malicious opening, and Father Stu didn't have a prayer.

It seemed like a good idea.  The Harry Potter series having wrapped up in 2011 and the cast was not interested in reprising their roles.  However, Warners still wanted to make money from the lucrative franchise, so, along with author J.K. Rowling, they hit upon the idea of a prequel series, chronicling the events of the last wizarding war, several decades before Harry's arrival at Hogwarts.  And unlike the  Britain-bound main franchise, this one could be globe-trotting, exploring wizarding communities in other countries of the world.

Alas, it turns out that removing Harry Potter from Harry Potter wasn't as simple as all that.  2016's Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them had a lower opening weekend and lower final gross than any of the 8 films from the main series, and Crimes of Grindelwald managed to do even worse on both counts.  Now comes the third--and probably last--entry in the new series, which crashes out even further.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore opened to a squib-like $42.2 million, $20 million less than Crimes of Griendelwald opened to in November 2018.  If Dumbledore follows a similar track, it is likely heading toward a mere $100 million domestic--and could end up even missing that total.  Given that the two Deathly Hallows movies each made well above $100 million during their opening weekends alone, that would be a deeply embarrassing outcome for the once-proud franchise.  I'm sure we'll eventually see more of the Wizarding World, but probably not on the big screen for a while.

Last week's champ, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, zipped down the chart a little faster than expected, taking in $29.3 million, a nearly 60% decline from its sensational opening last weekend.  Still, that is enough to make its ten-day total $118.9 million, making it the third film of 2022 to top the century mark.  At this point, it is only a matter of time before it passes Uncharted for #2 on the year, and also passes the final gross of its predecessor, which admittedly had a few million shaved off of what would have been its final gross by the pandemic.  I suspect Paramount will be pleased if this finishes around $180 million.

Staying steady at #3 is The Lost City (co-starring Harry Potter himself, Daniel Radcliffe), which brought in $6.2 million to bring its total to $78.3 million.  The action romcom still has a shot at hitting $100 million, but will likely need small drops over the next few weekends in order to get there.

Jumping 2 slots to #4 is indie sci-fi hit Everything Everywhere All At Once, which continues to expand into more theaters.  It earned $6.2 million this weekend, bringing its gross to $17.7 million.  Word-of-mouth could help double its current gross, before it almost certainly becomes a cult hit once its available for home viewing.

Opening dismally in 5th is Father Stu, an R-rated, Christian-themed drama starring Mark Wahlberg as the titular Father and Mel Gibson as his actual father.  It took in $5.4 million over the weekend and $7.7 million since its Wednesday opening.  Despite the star power, it seems likely that the film's target audience was turned off by both the R-rating and its focus on Catholicism instead of Protestantism.  We'll see if it is able to develop any post-Easter legs.

In 6th, Morbius is proving to be a huge disappointment, taking in $4.7 million for a total of $65.2 million.  It seems highly likely to miss $100 million.  Hope that word of mouth might save Ambulance proved unwarranted, as the hostage thriller fell over 50% from last weekend's disappointing opening, earning $4.1 million.  The film's ten-day total is $15.7 million.  The Batman, now available on HBO Max, continues to fade out, bringing in $3.8 million, for a total of $365 million.

The latest Indian movie to open strongly in the US is K.G.F.: Chapter 2.  The actioner, about an assassin turned criminal kingpin, took in $2.9 million.  Indian movies tend to be one-weekend wonders, so don't expect a return engagement in the Top 10.

Rounding out the list is the aforementioned Uncharted, also starring Wahlberg, which earned $1.2 million, for a total of $145 million.

This weekend sees the arrival of three new films, none of which are from franchises, and all of which could challenge Fantastic Beasts for #1.  The most likely top opener is The Bad Guys, the latest from DreamWorks Animation, about a group of criminal animals who decide to pretend to go straight in order to pull off their greatest heist ever.  However their leader, a wolf voiced by Sam Rockwell, finds himself liking being a good guy, and resolves to become one for real.  Animation has been in a tough spot throughout the pandemic, as only Sing 2 has topped $100 million during that time.  The Bad Guys seeks to become the second animated title to hit that mark, and the first DWA title to pull it off since How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World three years ago.  Also opening is the medieval action film The Northman, from cult director Robert Eggars.  It tells the story of an Irish prince-turned-Viking (Alexander Skarsgård), who is out for bloody revenge on his uncle for usurping his kingdom.  Among the familiar names in the cast are Nicole Kidman, Anya Taylor-Joy (who made her film debut in Eggars's The Witch), Björk (in her first film in 17 years), Ethan Hawke, and Willem Dafoe.  Finally, there's The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent, starring Nicolas Cage as actor Nicolas Cage, who finds that his new, very rich friend (Pedro Pascal) is actually an arms dealer and the CIA wants Cage's help in bringing him down.  This co-stars Tiffany Haddish, Demi Moore, and Neil Patrick Harris.  Will The Bad Guys prove to be good box office?  Will The Northman head north to #1?  Will The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent bear the weight of the top spot?  Or will Fantastic Beasts find themselves on top again?  We'll find out next week.

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