Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Box Office Discussion: "Encanto" Enchantos

 

It may have been Thanksgiving, but Encanto, Ghostbusters, and Gucci were anything but turkeys.

Thanksgiving weekend is usually a strong moviegoing weekend, and, thanks to the ongoing pandemic, this Thanksgiving didn't reach the lofty heights of two years ago, when families flocked to Frozen II and adults sampled Knives Out.  However, when judged on a more modest scale, this Thanksgiving was a smashing success.

Leading the charge Encanto, Disney's latest, about a magical family in Colombia, and the one family member without any gifts.  It opened to $27.2 million over the three days after Thanksgiving, and has grossed $40.6 million since its opening last Wednesday.  Given that the year's biggest animated film, Boss Baby: Family Business, has only grossed $57.3 million, it seems certain that Encanto will take that title sometime in the next couple of weeks.  Whether it will be able to keep it away from Christmas release Sing 2 remains to be seen.  But with no family titles on the horizon until Sing's debut, Encanto should be able to clean up in December, and likely become the first animated film to top $100 million since the aforementioned Frozen II.

In second, Ghostbusters: Afterlife had a strong hold, and came surprisingly close to keeping the weekend crown.  The three-decades-later sequel brought in $24.2 million and now has a ten-day total of $87.5 million.  The film will likely become the year's 12th $100 million grosser by next weekend, and has a shot at returning to #1.

Opening in third, House of Gucci had (depending on how you'd classify Old) the best or second-best opening of the year for an adult-aimed drama, taking in $14.4 million, and a total of $22 million since Wednesday.  It has already more than doubled the grosses of director Ridley Scott's other 2021 collaboration with Adam Driver, The Last Duel.  Unlike either Ghostbusters or Encanto, which have at least two more weeks before direct competition arrives, Gucci has to contend with the fellow Oscar possibilities already out, plus Spielberg's West Side Story remake which opens next weekend.  Still, unless word of mouth proves toxic, Gucci should probably make it to $50 million, which would be a triumph at this point in time.

In fourth, Eternals stabilized, taking in $7.9 million for a total of $150.7 million.  It should probably make it to about $165 million by the time Spider-Man: No Way Home swings into theaters.

Not everything could be a winner this weekend, and horror newcomer Resident Evil: Welcome to Racoon City didn't welcome much of an audience.  The film suffered easily the worst opening of any entry in the franchise, scaring up a mere $5.3 million.  It has collected $8.9 million since its Wednesday arrival.  Unless it has better-than-expected legs, it could easily end up under $20 million by the end of its run.

The holdovers that made up the rest of the Top 10 proved fairly resilient, all having only modest drops from the weekend before.  Clifford the Big Red Dog licked up another $5 million for a total of $43 million, and looks certain to top $50 million before the end of its run.  King Richard, which could have used some of that audience that chose House of Gucci instead, brought in $3.3 million for a ten-day total of $11.4 million.  Unless it is able to put together a sustained holiday season/awards season run, it will be the lowest-grossing vehicle for Smith since his leading man debut in Six Degrees of Separation in 1993--and that mostly played art houses. 

In 8th, Dune took in $2.1 million, finally topping $100 million in the process.  It stands at $102.2 million, and also passed Godzilla vs. Kong to become the highest-grossing film released day-and-date on a streamer with no upcharge.  We'll see at the end of the month if The Matrix Resurrections can finally break the HBO Max curse, or if it is also destined to massively underperform.

Rounding out the Top 10 are two long-running October releases, No Time to Die and Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which earned $1.7 million and $1.6 million, respectively.  Totals are $158.1 million and $209.5 million.

Debuting outside the Top 10, , Licorice Pizza opened to a staggering $86,000 per theater.  Of course, the film was only playing in four theaters in New York and Los Angeles, but that's a number that suggests that plenty of people still want to turn out to see movies on the big screen.  As Paul Thomas Anderson's 70s-set, coming-of-age dramady expands in the coming weeks and months, that per-screen will come way, way, way down, but perhaps it, along with House of Gucci, will signal that adults are finally coming back to the movies.

The first weekend of December is always a slow time at the box office, as studios rarely release anything major in this frame, and nearly all the Thanksgiving films suffer big drops.  Indeed, there are no wide releases this weekend, though semi-wide films like the horror thriller Wolf and the anime Sword Art Online could make inroads into the lower half of the Top 10.  At the top, it looks like it will be a competition between Encanto and Ghostbusters for #1, with a good chance that both titles fall to under $15 million.  Which one will prevail?  We'll find out next week.

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