Box Office Discussion: What a "Guy"

 

Free Guy holds on tight, while Paw Patrol impresses.

One of the most critical issues that has emerged this summer toward moviegoing getting back to normal is the collapse of legs.  While this has been an issue for some time, movies being front-loaded wasn't that big of a deal when those opening weekends delivered eye-popping numbers.   But this summer has delivered the worst of both worlds, with muted opening weekends (the biggest so far, Black Widow's $80.4 million, would only have been the 12th biggest opening in 2019), followed by instant massive drops that, if anything, were more extreme than they used to be.  The result is films making far less than they used to, a drop that can't be entirely attributed to the rise of quick home streaming (by which the studios are definitely not making up anywhere near the lost revenue from theatrical).

The movie theaters needed a hero, and they got a Guy.  Specifically, Free Guy, which followed up its impressive opening last week with an amazingly small 35% drop for its second weekend.  Under normal circumstances, a drop like that for a late summer action comedy would be extremely impressive.  In these conditions, it's downright miraculous.  The Ryan Reynolds vehicle took in $18.5 million for a ten-day gross of $58.5 million.  It's still a ways away from $100 million, but if drops remain this manageable, it shouldn't have much issue getting there in the next few weeks.

Coming in second is Paw Patrol: The Movie, the theatrical (and, it must be said, Paramount Plus) adaption of the hugely popular kiddie cartoon about a team of talking rescue dogs and their 10-year-old master.  It had an strong opening weekend of $13.2 million, a total that becomes even more terrific because so many of the tickets sold for this were discounted kiddie matinee tickets.  Movies aimed at kids that young--even ones from popular existing franchises--rarely do well, making this opening all the more impressive. Even more impressive was that it nearly doubled the combined gross of the weekend's other three new arrivals (more on them in a bit).

Jungle Cruise, the summer's other star-driven action comedy, continues to chug along in third, taking in $6.4 million for a seaworthy $92.7 million so far.  It should become the year's fifth $100 million grosser soon, probably by this weekend or shortly thereafter.

Don't Breathe 2 held up very well for a horror movie (and for a movie out this summer in general), dropping a bit over 50% to $5.1 million.  The film has scared up a ten-day total of $19.7 million, and should probably make it pretty close to $30 million.

Respect, on the other hand, had a typical-for-2021 second weekend drop, as it only brought in $3.8 million.  The ten-day total for the Aretha Franklin biopic is $15.1 million.  It's possible, however, that Jennifer Hudson's lead performance could keep the film in conversation at least until Oscar nominations are announced.

The Suicide Squad continues to fade fast as it took in $3.4 million for a deadly $49.3 million.  It's likely to stall out somewhere around $55 million.

That none of the three non-Paw Patrol newcomers could beat the third weekend of Suicide Squad is pretty awful, as they are lined up 7-9 in the Top Ten.  The best performing of the trio was the actioner The Protégé, starring not-quite-ready-to-be-a-movie-star Maggie Q.  The thriller could only muster a $2.9 million opening.

That kept it slightly ahead of The Night House, the new horror movie starring Rebecca Hall dealing with some sort of entity in her house after her husband's suicide.  It took in $2.9 million.

Both of them were well ahead of what seemed like the weekend's biggest movie, Reminiscence, a sci-fi noirish mystery starring Hugh Jackman.  In the scheme of things, a $68 million budget isn't that big these days, but it is if the film only takes in $2 million on its opening weekend.  While it probably deserves at least somewhat of an asterisk for opening during a pandemic and for being available on HBO Max, Reminiscence does dethrone The Rhythm Section as the lowest opening for a film playing at more than 3,000 theaters.  It will be lucky to hit a $5 million final.

Rounding out the Top Ten is Old, which took in $1.2 million, for a total of $45.2 million.

This weekend, only one newcomer goes wide to finish off August and the summer movie season.  Candyman is a remake/sequel of the 1992 horror film (lightly regarded in its day, but much better received 29 years later) about a vengeful African-American spirit haunting the area where a now-torn-down housing project used to be.  Yahya Abdul-Mateen II played the hapless guy who accidently summons the spirit back to the physical world.  Will turnout be sweet enough to push Candyman to the top spot, or will Free Guy threepeat?  We'll find out next week.