Box Office Discussion: "Guy" Smiley

 Free Guy's opening greatly exceeds expectations, even with Delta raging.

Going into this weekend (the first anniversary, incidentally, of major studios beginning to release films back into theaters), most box office observers were really worried about Free Guy.  Despite star Ryan Reynolds's popularity, it was an original film, i.e. not based on any prior work, and with the Delta variant running rampant, there were concerns it would debut under $20 million, which would be a sobering outcome heading into the fall.

Instead, Free Guy opened to a terrific $28.4 million, with a Saturday take almost exactly equal to its Friday take.  In a summer during which films have routinely open strongly on Friday before slumping on Saturday, this is a very good indication of strong word-of-mouth and a sign that Free Guy might not suffer the devastating second-weekend drops that have plagued movies all summer long.  While I think the most realistic final outcome will be a gross close to Cruella's $85 million, if it is able to find a strong pair of legs, it could make it to $100 million.

Opening far back in second is Don't Breathe 2, the sequel to the surprise 2016 hit about three burglars forced to play a cat and mouse game with the blind, homicidal owner of the house they broke into.  Understandably, Stephen Lang is the only one returning from the first one, as he goes after the kidnappers of a young girl.  With the pandemic suppressing grosses and the five year gap between entries, this was always going to open much smaller than the original (which took in $26.4 its opening weekend).  So, in that light, its $10.6 million opening is actually pretty good.  However, it is a horror movie, so it will be lucky to even reach a final gross of $26.4 million.  Luckily, the film was fairly cheap.

Jungle Cruise continues to chug along in third, earning $9.1 million.  It's now flowed past $82.3 million and will likely make it to $100 million.  

Opening in fourth was the Aretha Franklin biopic Respect, starring Jennifer Hudson as the legendary Queen of Soul.  Its $8.8 million opening isn't too far off from the August 2014 opening of another biopic of a legendary African-American musician, Get on Up, in which the late Chadwick Boseman played James Brown.  That opened to $13.6 million (against the opening weekend of Guardians of the Galaxy), and finished with $30.7 million.  That's probably more than Respect can hope to earn, but any finish in the mid $20 million range will be considered a success.

Despite strong reviews and word-of-mouth, The Suicide Squad compounded its disappointing opening with one of those aforementioned devastating second-weekend drops, plunging over 70% to $7.8 million.  That brings its ten-day total to $42.6 million, and it seems unlikely to get much above $50 million.  So far, every single movie that Warner Bros. has released simutaiousnly to both theaters and on HBO Max has fallen over 50% in its second weekend, which explains why the studio has already announced that theatrical exclusivity will return next year.  With expensive tentpoles like Dune and The Matrix 4 coming up, I wouldn't be shocked if WB figures out a way to end the program even earlier than that.

Rounding out the Top 10, Old came in sixth with $2.4 million, for a total of $42.9 million, Black Widow was seventh with $1.9 million, for a total of $178.1 million, with Stillwater ($1.3 million/$12.5 million), The Green Knight ($1.2 million/$14.7 million), and Space Jam: A New Legacy ($1.1 million/$68.1 million) following.  

This will be the busiest weekend for new releases in a while, as four titles arrive at the multiplex.  The one most likely to challenge Free Guy for the top spot is Reminiscence, starring Hugh Jackman as a scientist working with technology that allows people to vividly relive their fondest memories.  Rebecca Ferguson and Thandiwe Newton co-star.  Also opening is The Night House, a horror flick about a woman (Rebecca Hall) who is convinced her house is haunted, The Protégé, an action thriller starring Maggie Q as an assassin seeking revenge for the death of mentor Samuel L. Jackson, and what will likely be the bane of parents of preschoolers everywhere, Paw Patrol: The Movie.  Will any of them make it to the top?  Or will Free Guy stand freely again?  We'll find out next week.