Wednesday, August 11, 2021

Box Office Discussion: Bomb "Squad"


 The Suicide Squad lives up to its name by opening below expectations.\

Five years ago, Suicide Squad was one of the most anticipated movies of the summer, and its first weekend, it lived up to the hype by opening to $133.4 million.  However, reviews were terrible, and so was word of mouth, which is why it topped out at "only" $325.1 million.  Dissatisfaction with the film became more obvious 3 1/2 years later when its quasi-sequel, Birds of Prey (And Something Something Ridiculously Long Subtitle) greatly underperformed, opening in February 2020 to only $33 million.  While the pandemic's arrival only a month after it opened prematurely ended the film's run, it likely wouldn't have made much more than the mere $84.2 million it had already banked when theaters closed.

The hope was that the next quasi-sequel, The Suicide Squad (note the new article), would be the film that audiences had been expecting in 2016.  And for the most part, it was.  Reviews were, by and large, good, and word of mouth was enthusiastic.  But whether it was lingering memories of the disappointing 2016 version, or the Delta variant scaring people from heading to the theater, or Warner's increasingly poor decision to just give their entire 2021 slate of movies free to HBO Max subscribers, or some combination of the three, the new Squad couldn't even top Birds of Prey's mediocre opening, coming in at $26.2 million.  That was still good for #1, and maybe, just maybe, the great word of mouth will mean that this one, unlike its predecessors, will have decent legs.  But I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything north of a $60 million final.

Last week's champ, Jungle Cruise, chugged down to second with $15.8 million.  That's a drop of 55% from last weekend, which this summer represents a fantastic hold.  The action comedy's ten-day total is $65.4 million, meaning that it has a solid chance of becoming the 5th film of the year to top $100 million.

In third, Old continues to scare moviegoers, taking in $4.1 million for a total of $38.5 million.  It appears to be heading to around $50 million total, a solid success for the low-budgeted film.  In fourth, Black Widow took in $3.9 million, and is now the highest-grossing film of 2021 with $174.3 million.  It will likely finish short of $200 million, but Disney likes its movies to officially hit big round numbers, so don't be surprised if this manages to make it there, by hook or by crook.

Stillwater actually held on to more than half of its first weekend gross, an almost-unheard of phenomenon this summer, as it grossed $2.8 million.  Of course, it helps that the opening weekend wasn't great and this is the type of film whose audience might not rush out on opening weekend.  Still, that is easily one of, if not the best, holds for a second-weekend wide release this summer.  Its 10-day total stands at $10 million.

The great reviews that greeted The Green Knight couldn't help it retain its small first-weekend audience, though, as it slips to $2.6 million.  Its ten-day total is $12.2 million.

In 7th, Space Jam: A New Legacy provides a helpful contrast to Jungle Cruise.  It had a two-week head start on Cruise, and both films opened similarly.  Yet Space Jam, which took in $2.4 million this weekend, has banked only $65.6 million, earning in four weeks almost exactly what Jungle Cruise has earned in two.  That's why Jungle Cruise looks to be heading to or pretty close to $100 million and why Space Jam is unlikely to outgross the 1996 version's $90.4 final.

Rounding out the Top 10, flop Snake Eyes grossed $1.7 million for a total of $26.1 million, and will be lucky to top $30 million, Escape Room: Tournament of Champions grossed $1.3 million for a total of $23.1 million, and F9 took in $1.2 million for a total of $171 million.  Outside the Top Ten, Boss Baby: Family Business was able to inch past Raya and the Last Dragon to become the year's highest-grossing animated film.

Three new movies go wide this weekend.  Challenging Suicide Squad (and maybe Jungle Cruise) for the top spot is Free Guy, which, in this summer utterly dominated by adaptions and sequels and franchise cogs, is a rarity--an original screenplay.  Ryan Reynolds plays a bank clerk living in a hyperviolent city who discovers he's actually a non-playable character in an online video game.  He decides to break his programming to become a hero, just as the game's creators are planning to shut it down.  Thanks to the pandemic, this one has been on the shelf for a while (as the heavily advertised Alex Trebek cameo attests to), but it should open to solid business.  Also opening is Respect, the year's second Aretha Franklin filmed biography (after the miniseries Genius: Aretha), with Jennifer Hudson playing the legendary singer, and Don't Breathe 2, a sequel to the surprise 2016 critical and commercial hit.  However, the original didn't really leave much of a legacy behind, and as the producers of Escape Room: Tournament of Champions (which came out only 2 1/2 years after the original), a lengthy delay might doom the sequel.  Still, it could surprise, just like the first one did.  Which film emerges on the top, we'll find out next week.

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