Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Box Office Discussion: "Jam" Session


 Space Jam puts points on the board, as Black Widow gets caught in its own web.

After a pandemic record opening last weekend, most observers expected Black Widow to easily win its second weekend.  Instead, it fell far harder than expected, allowing a sequel to a 25-year-old movie to take the top spot.

Space Jam: A New Legacy put points on the board, opening to a better-than-expected $31.1 million.  That number looks less impressive compared to the original Space Jam, which opened to $27.5 million two weeks before Thanksgiving 1996.  And that Space Jam ended up earning 30% of its final gross that weekend, a percentage that the new one will be lucky to beat.  Indeed, the odds are good that A New Legacy will finish below the first film's $90.4 million.  But then again, we are in a different era, where HBO Max subscribers could watch the movie for free from their couches, and Covid numbers are rising again.  In that environment, this opening has to be considered a success.  Plus, if it introduces a new generation to the Looney Tunes and their original cartoons (most of which are far, far, far, far better than either Space Jam), it will be worth it.

Black Widow nosedived from its $80.4 million opening last weekend to $25.9 million this weekend, the steepest second weekend dive for an MCU movie, ever (even arguably the least-liked MCU movie, 2008's The Incredible Hulk, fell only 60%).  It had almost the exact same fall that F9 had in its second weekend, though the fact that that film was so front-loaded wasn't really a shock.  This continues a troubling trend, where most movies this summer have had sharp second weekend drops.  At any rate, Widow has a ten-day gross of $131.6 million, and still seems likely to become the highest-grossing movie of the year for the time being.  However, it also seems likely to become the first MCU entry to not hit $200 million since Ant-Man in 2015.

Opening in third was horror entry Escape Room: Tournament of Champions, which escaped with $8.8 million, a comedown from the first film's $18.2 million opening in January 2019.  To be fair, 2 1/2 years is a long time for a horror sequel, and this, like most of the summer's lineup, was supposed to come out last year.  Luckily, the film is cheap, and another Escape Room seems like a decent possibility.

F9 sputtered into fourth, with $7.7 million.  Its vroomed to $154.9 million, and has by now likely passed A Quiet Place Part II to become the highest grosser of the year.  The Boss Baby: Family Business has yet to match the first film's opening weekend, as it took in another $4.7 million for a total of $44.7 million (the first film opened to $50.2 million in the spring of 2017).  The Forever Purge purged out another $4.1 million, for a total of $35.9 million.

A Quiet Place Part II spent its final weekend as the highest-grossing movie of the year in 7th, with $2.2 million.  It is up to $155 million, and seems likely to be heading to $165-$170 million, which would be only a bit off from the first film's $188 million.

Surprisingly opening in 8th is the rare documentary to make the Top 10.  The rather controversial Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain chronicles the life and legacy of the late chef, author, TV show host, and world traveler.  It opened to $2 million.

Cruella is looking like it is close to being done, as it brought in $1.2 million for a total of $83.5 million, a bit of a disappointment, but Disney will happily take it.

Rounding out the Top 10 is Pig, the well-received thriller starring Nicholas Cage as a chef trying to track down his prize truffle-hunting pig.  It opened just below $1 million.

Two new titles arrive this weekend to challenge Space Jam for the top spot.  After two underwhelming attempts to replicate the success of Transformers in 2009 and 2013, Paramount allowed the G.I. Joe franchise to become dormant.  However it's back with the prequel Snake Eyes, which chronicles the early years of arguably the most popular member of the Joes.  Henry Golding gets his first solo lead in the title role.  Paramount isn't exactly hiding the fact it's a G.I. Joe movie, but its also not going out of its way to advertise that fact.  Meanwhile, Old is the latest thriller from M. Night Shyamalan, about a family that discovers an isolated tropical beach, only to realize that, for whatever reason, it is causing them to age very, very rapidly.  Hollywood will be watching this one carefully because it is only the second big studio non-franchise movie since Memorial Day, and we all saw what happened to In the Heights.  Aiming for the lower half of the Top 10 will be Joe Bell, a drama starring Mark Wahlberg as a man who decides to walk across the country in honor of his late son, who committed suicide after being bullied for being gay.  The film, which played last year at Sundance, got a rather muted reaction from critics, but Wahlberg's name could get people into theaters.  Will Space Jam get another slam dunk to stay on top?  Will Snake Eyes roll box cars and take the top spot?  Will Old be the new champ?  We'll find out next week.

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