Box Office Discussion: Upward "Spiral"

 The new Saw spin-off opens decently, while everything else flops.

It's almost unheard of for a movie released in April to outgross the big early May releases.  It's possible if a May-type summer film opens the last weekend of April, such as the last two Avengers movies.  But usually, April might get one or two big titles, and the rest of the newcomers are smaller films, burn-offs, and dumps.

Of course, in the pandemic era, all rules are off the table, which is why two April releases (Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer) hold the second and third biggest openings of the last year, and why the first two weeks of May have seen nothing top $10 million.

Opening in first is Spiral, a serial killer torture flick that's spun off from the successful Saw series.  Unlike its predecessors, which was happy to feature minor stars like Cary Elwes, Danny Glover, and Donnie Wahlberg, Spiral features A, or at least B+ names like Chris Rock and Samuel L. Jackson.  The result was by far the lowest opening the franchise has seen, with $8.8 million, well below the previous low-water mark set by Saw VI in 2009.  Obviously, this likely would have been higher under normal circumstances, but as the disappointing opening of the first attempt to revive the franchise, Jigsaw in 2017, suggested, maybe this is a series best left to the Aughts.

Last week's top grosser, the Jason Statham actioner Wrath of Man, fell by more than half in its second weekend, taking in $3.7 million for a ten-day gross of $14.6 million.  This is a bit better than how Nobody was doing in March at the same point in its run, suggesting Wrath could make it to about $30 million.

Opening rather disappointingly in third is Those Who Wish Me Dead, which probably suffered from going after the same audience as Wrath of Man and Spiral.  The Angelina Jolie actioner could muster only $2.8 million and seems likely to finish under $10 million.  Luckily for her, she has almost-certain blockbuster Eternals coming out in November.

The aforementioned Demon Slayer continues an impressive run, coming in fourth with $1.8 million and bringing its total to $41.9 million.  It seems likely to run out of track before hitting $50 million, but as every cent earned in America is pure gravy, I don't think anyone will be complaining.

Even though Tom and Jerry is still out there, Raya and the Last Dragon is more or less functioning as the only family film out right now, slipping just 11% in its 11th weekend to $1.7 million.  It now stands at $46.1 million, and while catching up to The Croods: A New Age seems unlikely, it should make it to $50 million.

Godzilla vs. Kong continues to slowly rumble its way to $100 million, taking in $1.5 million for a total of $95.1 million.  Mortal Kombat continues a fast fade, with $1.3 million for a total of $39.9 million.  Unlike Raya, $50 million is unlikely for Kombat.

Opening in 8th is low-key romcom Finding You, which seems likely to wind up a sleeper hit on a streaming service in a few months.  It took in $0.9 million, well ahead of the weekend's fourth newcomer, the thriller Profile, which only opened to $0.7 million.  Rounding out the Top Ten was Billy Crystal's Here Today, which won't be here much longer with a ten-day total of only $1.9 million.

As Netflix doesn't release their box office totals, we don't have an official number for their zombie heist thriller Army of the Dead, which screened at about 400 theaters ahead of its streaming debut this weekend.  But unofficial reports say it earned about $0.8 million, enough to get it in the Top Ten.

Apparently not wanting a new movie to be a second-weekend sacrificial lamb to Quiet Place II and Cruella, both opening next weekend for Memorial Day, the major studios are avoiding this weekend.  The only thing going even semi-wide is the British horse racing drama Dream Horse, starring Toni Collette and Damian Lewis.  Also opening a year after hitting streaming is Scoob, the Scooby-Doo movie that was supposed to be one of last May's big titles.  Will Dream Horse top $1 million?  Will Spiral be able to stay above $4 million this weekend?  We'll find out next week.