11 1/2 years ago, just in time for the 4th of July 2008, Will Smith opened in the surprisingly dark comedy Hancock, playing an alcoholic superhero who tended to cause more mayhem than he prevented. By the end of Independence Day (the holiday, not the movie) weekend, it would be over $100 million, and would go on to gross $228 million domestic, despite mixed reviews and so-so word of mouth. That would be the last time people would go see a movie just because Will Smith was the star.
Since then, Smith's career can be neatly divided into two columns--original films, all of which massively underperformed, and franchises entries, all of which were huge blockbusters. No one much cared to see Smith in Seven Pounds, After Earth, Focus, Concussion, Collateral Beauty, Gemini Man, or Spies in Disguise, none of which topped $70 million domestic. They did come out to to see Men in Black III, Suicide Squad, and Aladdin, all of which did well over $100 million and the later two did over $300 million. So its not too surprising that Smith agreed to return to playing Miami cop Mike Lowrey for the first time since 2003 in Bad Boys For Life. And, like his other three retreads over the last decade plus, this one is going to be a smash.
Over the 4-day Martin Luther King weekend, Bad Boys took in $73 million, which, yes, is more than the final grosses of any of his "original" films since Hancock. It also has already outgrossed the entire run of the original Bad Boys (which, admittedly, earned its money in 1995), and is more than halfway to the final gross of Bad Boys II. Not only will this be the first $100 million grosser of 2020, it could very well be the first $200 million grosser as well. It also nicely resurrected the movie career of Martin Lawrence, who hasn't been in a hit since 2007's Wild Hogs. Smith will be tempting fate this Thanksgiving with King Richard, an Oscar bait biopic about Venus and Serena Williams's father, but don't worry--Bad Boys 4 is officially greenlit.
Bad Boys For Life got shockingly good reviews, but landing on the other end of the Rotten Tomatoes scale was the weekend's other newcomer, Dolittle. An adaption of the various stories by Hugh Lofting, whose first Doctor Dolittle book was published in 1920, this variation of the story of the good doctor (Robert Downey Jr.) who can talk to the animals removes it from the contemporaneity setting of the Eddie Murphy versions and moves it back to the original's Victorian setting. As a non-MCU vehicle for Downey, its $28.3 million four-day opening isn't too bad. After all, his last non-MCU film, The Judge, finished with $47.1 million, and Dolittle will likely outgross that. The problem is that Dolittle cost nearly $200 million, and with the toxic reviews, it is likely to finish absolutely nowhere near that number. For Universal, its not likely to be quite the Cat-astrophe that a certain musical about singing animals was, but its still going to be very unprofitable for the studio.
Fresh off of earning 10 Oscar nominations, tentative Best Picture frontrunner 1917 held up nicely, taking in $26.9 million in its second wide weekend. Its total gross is now $81.5 million, and it will likely be over $100 million by the end of next weekend.
Coming in 4th is Jumanji: The Next Level, which earned $12.7 million over the four-day weekend to bring its total to a solid $273.6 million. It passed the fast-fading Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which could only manage $10.6 million, and finished the weekend with $494.2 million. It should be above $500 million by next weekend, but now looks likely to finish below the final gross of Rouge One: A Star Wars Story and be the first film of the main, nine-film series to not finish at 1st or 2nd for the year.
After getting six nominations, including Best Picture, Little Women took in another $8.2 million, for a gross of $86.7 million. 1917 will likely beat it to $100 million, but it will get there, which means it will at least double the final gross of the 1994 version of the story.
Just Mercy, with its zero Oscar nominations, had a bit of a disappointing second weekend, taking in $7.5 million for a total of $21.1 million. This is now looking likely to finish around $30 million. Two films that are well beyond that total continue to stick around, for at least one more week, with near identical long weekend grosses. Both Knives Out and Frozen II made $5.3 million, which brings Knives to $147 million and Frozen to $466.5 million.
Rounding out the Top 10 is Like a Boss, which is like a flop, as it earned only $4.8 million in its second weekend for a gross of $17.9 million. Opening outside the Top 10 is the anime romance Weathering With You, which made a decent $2.2 million on less than 500 screens.
Besides 1917 and Little Women, five of the other seven Best Picture nominees--Joker, Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, and Jojo Rabbit--added theaters over the weekend, and saw significant jumps from last weekend (if the other two nominees--Marriage Story and The Irishman--added screens, it was, as usual, a closely guarded secret by Netflix). Also adding screens and seeing their week-to-week number go up is Best Actor/Best International Film nominee Pain & Glory, Best Actress nominee Judy, and Best International Film nominee Les Miserables.
Two films are set to go wide this weekend, though I expect neither will be able to knock off Bad Boys For Life. The Turning is the latest adaption of Henry James's gothic ghost story The Turn of the Screw, this one set in the modern day. Meanwhile, The Gentlemen is a London-based crime comedy thriller with a very good cast, including Matthew McConaughey, Hugh Grant, and Colin Farrell. While Bad Boys should easily win, both these titles might end up being sleepers.
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